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The 2022 NBA draft is here, which means we have to bet it. Obviously. What's the best bet on the board? John Hyslop is here with his +280 prediction.
ANALYSIS

2022 NBA Draft Betting: Do We Dare Bet on Paolo Banchero Going No. 1?

The NBA Draft is tonight so obviously, we're betting it. That's just the right thing to do when it comes to NBA Drafts. If I'm watching a guy read names off of cards, I'm betting on it. That's literally the only way to make it worth watching in my opinion. I don't make the rules.

Lucky for us, some weird stuff is happening today with the lines. Books are in disagreement and it's very fun to watch. Some of the top dogs in the NBA news game seem to be having a source off and it's causing problems at the books. Somebody has to know something here, people.

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NBA Draft Prediction: Paolo Banchero #1 Overall Pick (+280) (Bet $100 to Win $280)

*Line Available at FanDuel at time of Writing*

NBA Draft Best Bet

Here's the thing. DraftKings is hanging -190 for this right now but FanDuel is hanging +280. Somebody knows something. This just doesn't happen (probably). Less than an hour ago FanDuel had +400 so I'm siding with Banchero to go first tonight. It just feels right. The draft is all about vibes. Nothing else. Everyone knows that.

The biggest mistake people make when betting the draft is trying to sell themselves on which players are better. A great example was when I was talking to Mike Tannenbaum about the NFL Draft this year and he kept saying Aiden Hutchinson was going first. He said he'd watched film and Hutchinson was the pick. Guess what? It doesn't matter who we think is better on the field/court. All that matters is what the GMs of these teams that are actually picking think. Spoiler alert, the guy we bet, Travon Walker, was drafted first.

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What I do to prepare for a draft bet is watch zero film. None whatsoever. I don't want to cloud my brain. Instead, I spend my time trying to figure out what the talking heads are really saying or not saying when they say stuff. That's just how I roll. You see when they speak (or don't speak), they are not always saying what they are saying. For instance, Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted out "Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City, and Paolo Banchero to Houston" a few hours ago. Now the books are going crazy.

I don't buy that Woj knows who is being drafted where. I think he's being played. But his tweet today caused a situation where you can bet Banchero to go number one at FanDuel (+280) and Jabari Smith to go number one at DraftKings (+145) and make money as long as one of those guys is drafted number one overall. I don't do stuff like that since I'm a betting purist but people could easily do it. There are no rules against it. No matter what ends up happening, the number one overall market is one that will be fun to watch all the way up until the first pick is announced.

Article Author

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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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