March Madness Player Props: Can Braden Smith, Tahaad Pettiford Deliver in Friday's Sweet 16 Showdowns?

March Madness continues after a thrilling end to Thursday night’s Sweet 16 matchups. Tonight, we head to the South and Midwest Regions of the bracket where both No. 1 and 2 seeds look to advance and keep what has been a chalky NCAA Tournament rolling.

Here are three player props to consider betting on for Friday night’s NCAA Tournament games.

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March Madness Player Props: Friday, March 28th

Tahaad Pettiford Over 11.5 Points (-125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Auburn’s frontcourt is going to have its hands full with the Michigan 7-footers tonight, which opens the door for some of the guards to step up against a weaker Wolverines backcourt. While he plays just over half the game, Tahaad Pettiford is one of the best sixth men in the country and is the definition of a human microwave. 

The freshman phenom is a high volume 3-point shooter and takes over a quarter of all shots while on the floor. He has dominated in the NCAA Tournament thus far – 39 points across two games – and should see plenty of usage yet again here against Michigan. 

Michigan has benefitted from its opponents struggling to find their 3-point stroke in the opening weekend. Between UC San Diego – an elite shooting team – and Texas A&M, who is quite the opposite, the two combined for 14-of-57 from beyond the arc (24.6%). Even with the Wolverines’ strong perimeter defense, this number should regress back to the mean. 

That’s why I like the Auburn shooters in this matchup. There’ll be plenty of attention thrown toward Johni Broome, which opens the door for a catch-and-shoot on the outside. If you’re too afraid of Pettiford’s points prop, you can look at his 2+ 3s. 

We are also backing a player in amazing form. Since the month of March, Pettiford has scored 12+ points in 5-of-7. The two games he struggled, he didn’t play more than 20 minutes. 

Pettiford always has the green light and should see a high shot volume once again against Michigan. The opportunities will be there, it’s just a matter of Pettiford converting from deep. The Wolverines give up a lot of 3s (191st in 3PA/FGA) and try to force opponents into isolation (28th in A/FGM). 

That’s why I like Pettiford the most of these guards. He has elite speed and is a high-level scorer that can finish in a multitude of ways. Expect Bruce Pearl to use him plenty in the pick-and-roll and allow him to take the likes of Tre Donaldson and co. off the dribble. 

Jaxon Kohler Over 6.5 Rebounds (-122) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Ole Miss has been shooting the lights out of the ball, but that should soon come to an end. As a whole, the Rebels are outside the top 120 in both 3-point shooting and 2-point%. They’re also a team that struggles to rebound mightily. 

This should be a perfect opportunity for the physical 6-foot-9 Jaxon Kohler to take advantage. The junior ranks inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate among all Division I players. 

Because both teams aren’t exactly elite offensively, there should be plenty of rebounding chances for Kohler. He doesn’t play 30+ minutes, but he’s extremely efficient in his time on the floor. 

I mentioned Ole Miss’ struggles on the glass. The Rebels are 314th in offensive rebounding rate and 226th on the defensive glass. Opponents also shoot nearly 45% of all attempts from 3. All of this culminates in a perfect opportunity for Kohler on the glass if he can stay out of foul trouble. 

And the good news is that the other Michigan State bigs – Carson Cooper and Szymon Zapala in particular – really struggle in the foul department. Against a physical Ole Miss squad, that could lead to extended run for Kohler. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kohler finished with a double-double here, but I’m just playing his over 6.5 rebounds prop. He has been over this number in five of his last eight and in 61% of games against teams ranked inside the Kenpom top 100. 

This is a great matchup for Kohler on both ends of the floor and one he should take advantage of against a smaller Ole Miss frontcourt. 

Braden Smith Over 6.5 Assists (-118) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

I think this is a great buy-low spot on Braden Smith in the facilitating department. While he’s finished under this 6.5 number in both games of the NCAA Tournament and now faces the best defense yet, there’s optimism in Smith finding success here. 

For starters, I would be surprised if he sat more than three minutes in this game. He played all 40 against both High Point and McNeese State, and has played 39+ minutes in each of his last five games. 

He’ll also have the ball in his hands on every single possession. While Trey Kaufman-Renn is the go-to scoring option, Smith is the orchestrator. While this Houston defense is No. 1 in the country, per Kenpom, they do allow assists on 56% of field goals, which ranks close to 300th. 

I expect Purdue to feed Kaufman-Renn heavily here. He is a super physical forward and should be able to combat with the likes of J’Wan Roberts and JoJo Tugler. Whether it’s through the pick-and-roll or low post, Smith should have plenty of potential assists. 

This number is especially low when you consider how Smith has done all season. He is No. 2 in the country in assist rate and has finished with 7+ assists in 69% of his games this season. This prop should be closer to 7.5 and there’s enough edge here for me to bite. 

If Purdue is going to find any success on the offensive end against Houston, it’ll come and the hands of Smith. 

March Madness Player Prop Picks

• Tahaad Pettiford Over 11.5 Points (-125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Michigan vs. Auburn odds
• Jaxon Kohler Over 6.5 Rebounds (-122) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Ole Miss vs. Michigan State odds
• Braden Smith Over 6.5 Assists (-118) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best Purdue vs. Houston odds

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