Texas vs. NC State Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament First Four Odds for Tuesday, March 17th
NC State and Texas meet in the First Four on Tuesday night with an 11-seed and a date with BYU on the line. Both teams slipped into Dayton after early conference tournament exits, making this one of the more desperate play-in games on the board. Here’s our full breakdown, prediction, and best bet.
OC Staff - March 17, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNC State vs. Texas Prediction: Which Bubble Team Survives the First Four?
The NC State Wolfpack and Texas Longhorns meet Tuesday, March 17, 2026 in the First Four with the winner advancing as a potential No. 11 seed to face BYU in the Round of 64. Tipoff is set for 9:15 PM E.T. from UD Arena in Dayton, and the market has this one listed as a near coin flip.
Both teams arrive in this spot after failing to do enough in their conference tournaments to feel safe on Selection Sunday. NC State helped itself with one ACC Tournament win before falling to Virginia, while Texas damaged its résumé with an early SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss.
NC State vs. Texas Recent Results
NC State closed the ACC Tournament with a split result. The Wolfpack beat Pitt 98-88 behind 24 points and eight assists from Quadir Copeland, then lost 81-74 to Virginia in the quarterfinals. That left NC State sweating out Selection Sunday before ultimately landing in Dayton.
Texas did itself no favors in Nashville. The Longhorns lost 76-66 to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament, a result that left their NCAA Tournament hopes in serious doubt for several days. Jordan Pope scored 16 points in that defeat, but Texas never led and again showed the late-season inconsistency that dragged it into the First Four.
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NC State vs. Texas Odds
Texas vs. NC State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 17th, 2026
- Time: 9:15 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TruTV
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Texas vs. NC State Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
NC State’s biggest strengths are offensive efficiency and ball security. The Wolfpack rank well in effective field goal percentage and take care of the ball at a much better rate than Texas, which matters in a high-pressure, one-game setting. That discipline should help NC State avoid the empty possessions that can decide First Four games. Based on FairPlayAI data, NC State owns the edge in eFG% and turnover rate, while Texas is more vulnerable there.
Texas does have a real advantage on the glass, and that is the biggest thing working in the Longhorns’ favor. The Wolfpack have struggled in rebounding spots all season, so if Texas can create second-chance points and turn this into a more physical game, that may be the easiest way for the Longhorns to take control. Veteran scorer Tramon Mark remains the offensive tone-setter for Texas, while Paul McNeil Jr. is the headliner for NC State. Texas also leans on Jordan Pope and Dailyn Swain for perimeter creation, but the FairPlayAI notes suggest multiple Longhorn scoring props lean under against NC State’s defense.
Texas vs. NC State Prediction
This game should be tight throughout, but NC State looks like the slightly more trustworthy side. The Wolfpack are cleaner offensively, less turnover-prone, and better equipped to avoid the kind of mistakes that can bury teams in Dayton. In a near toss-up, those traits matter.
Texas absolutely has the athletes and the rebounding to win, but the Longhorns’ late-season form makes them harder to trust. They lost early in the SEC Tournament and spent Selection Sunday hoping their résumé would hold. NC State at least showed a little more life in Charlotte, and that may be enough to carry over into this play-in game.
Texas vs. NC State Best Bet
- Best Bet: NC State -1.5 (-115) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Oddschecker+ / FairPlayAI data points clearly toward the Wolfpack here. The model identifies a +7.5% positive expected value on NC State +1.5, and if NC State is now laying a short number, the core logic still applies: the Wolfpack are undervalued because of their superior offensive efficiency and far better ball security. NC State ranks 37th in eFG% and 25th in turnover rate, while Texas sits well behind in turnover rate and is more likely to waste possessions.
That’s the kind of edge that matters in a First Four game expected to be close. Texas may win the rebounding battle, but NC State is more likely to win the possession battle overall because it simply plays cleaner basketball. In a one-game sample with nerves high and every empty trip magnified, that makes NC State -1.5 the best betting angle.
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