Texas vs. TCU Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs Remain Unbeaten?
Texas vs. TCU Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs Remain Unbeaten?
TCU is the bell of the ball when it comes to the Big 12 Conference this season. The Horned Frogs are the only remaining undefeated team at 9-0 in the Big 12 and could leap into the top four seedings in the 2022-23 College Football Playoff when it's announced Tuesday night.
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is in his first year at the program but he successfully built up SMU over five years, taking the Mustangs to two bowl games and an 8-4 record in 2021. It's translating seamlessly into the Horned Frogs' program, as TCU is averaging over 43 points per game, ranking fourth-highest in the nation. The defense is a liability, allowing roughly 27 points per game, but it has yet to bite them during a closely contested matchup.
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Texas is also experiencing a resurgence under second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns are led by freshman transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is playing well under center, showcasing a big arm to pair with his mullet. The star of the offense is junior running back Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 5.9 YPC and has accrued over 1,100 rushing yards through nine games this season. Robinson is destined for the bright lights in the NFL during the 2023 NFL Draft but until that happens, he'll be running rampant out of the Longhorns' backfield down the remaining stretch of this season.
Can the Longhorns upset the Horned Frogs at home in primetime and improve their chances of making the College Football Playoff? Or will TCU continue to play at an elite level with quarterback Max Duggan and running back Kendre Miller? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's marquee Big 12 matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns.
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TCU vs. Texas Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, November 12
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: ABC
TCU vs. Texas Odds
Spread: TCU +7 (-105), Texas -7 (-115)
Total: Under 65.5 (-115), Over 65.5 (-105)
Moneyline: TCU (+225), Texas (-265)
Click Here for TCU vs Texas Odds
TCU vs. Texas Injury Report
TCU
WR Quentin Johnston (DTD - Ankle)
Texas
TE Brayden Liebrock (DTD - Shoulder), WR Jaden Alexis (DTD - Knee)
TCU vs. Texas Prediction
This has been a competitive head-to-head series recently, with TCU winning three of the previous five matchups. Texas beat the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth last year during Sarkisian's first stint as the Longhorns' head coach, so he's familiar with what it will take to beat the conference's only remaining unbeaten team. The addition of Quinn Ewers helps Texas spread the ball out and become a dual-threat offense, which helps Robinson get going out of the backfield.
The last two games in Austin have been mixed results, with TCU winning 33-31 as 10.5-point underdogs in 2020, while the Longhorns defended home turf soundly 31-16 back in 2018. Texas could easily be an 8-1 or 9-0 program but they suffered an overtime loss against Texas Tech on the road, blew a lead and got shutout against Oklahoma State in the fourth quarter, and lost Quinn Ewers during a 20-19 loss to Alabama back in Week 2. This all goes to say that this is a Longhorns team that is much better than its record indicates, however, they need to find ways to close out games. Especially against TCU's potent offense, which allows the Horned Frogs to always linger in games despite a pedestrian defense.
The bad news for Texas is that its defense is also not the most reliable unit on the field. The Longhorns have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete at least 60 percent of their pass attempts in eight of nine games, including three consecutive games with two passing touchdowns. The run defense is better, bottling up rushing attacks with a 4.0 YPC average or less in all but one game, which came against Alabama. Kendre Miller, TCU's star running back, will need to overcome this challenge, but he'll have some relief from Duggan and Emari Demercado to spell him from time to time on Saturday night.
TCU has decreased Duggan's volume as a passer in their last three games. As great as the senior quarterback has been for the Horned Frogs this season, posting a 12:1 touchdown to interception ratio, he has attempted under 30 passes in three consecutive games. Dykes is force-feeding Miller and it's been successful, as TCU has ripped off over 4.5 YPC in all but one game, which came against Kansas State in a 38-28 win a few weeks ago.
Ewers and the Longhorns have a chance to upset TCU in primetime in front of their home fans but they cannot continue slipping up with multiple turnovers. Three interceptions and two fumbles have been lost during Texas' last two games, resulting in a loss to Oklahoma State and nearly blowing a double-digit lead against Kansas State last weekend. That's where TCU has the edge in this matchup. They don't turn the football over on offense. Two of their three previous matchups have been turnover-free when having possession of the football, while the Horned Frogs' defense has forced one or two turnovers in eight consecutive games.
The lines in this game are very surprising to me. The Longhorns are a touchdown favorite on the spread at -115, while the Horned Frogs are +240 to win outright. Maybe I'm missing something, but Bijan Robinson versus Kendre Miller will certainly be electric all night long in Austin, Texas. TCU has a winning formula with their increasingly potent ground game and they also have the better quarterback, who will be asked to make some big throws against Texas' vulnerable secondary. Let's hit a great payout and take the Horned Frogs' moneyline at +240 to continue their perfect season on the road against Texas on Saturday night.
TCU vs. Texas Pick
- TCU Moneyline (+240) Bet $100 to collect $340.
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.