Missouri vs. Kansas Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Friday, September 11th
No. 23 Missouri and Kansas renew the Border Showdown on Friday night with both teams coming off dominant season-opening victories. Missouri won by 11 when the rivalry returned last season, but Kansas now gets the game in Lawrence and has attracted massive larger-wager support as the spread has fallen from a full touchdown toward 5.5. Check out this Missouri vs. Kansas prediction and best bet for Friday, September 11.
Peter Alexis - September 11, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadMissouri vs. Kansas Prediction: Can Mizzou Avoid Upset in Heated Rivalry on Friday Night in Lawrence?
No. 23 Missouri travels to Lawrence on Friday night to face Kansas at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on FOX, marking the first Border Showdown played in Lawrence since 2005.
Both teams opened the season against overmatched opponents and delivered exactly what was expected. Missouri beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 behind an excellent debut from Austin Simmons, while Kansas rolled up more than 600 yards in a 51-6 victory over LIU behind new quarterback Isaiah Marshall.
Missouri vs. Kansas Recent Results
Missouri is 1-0 after Simmons completed 17 of 19 passes for 252 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Tigers led 40-0 at halftime and outgained UAPB 562-198, although the rushing attack was less dominant early, with Jamal Roberts managing 47 yards on 13 carries. Missouri went 8-5 overall and 4-4 in SEC play last season.
Kansas is also 1-0 after beating LIU 51-6. The Jayhawks accumulated 613 yards, including 277 on the ground, while holding LIU to only 146 total yards. Marshall threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 49, Yasin Willis added 72 yards and two scores and Nik McMillan produced 130 receiving yards in his Kansas debut. The Jayhawks finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in Big 12 play last year.
Missouri vs. Kansas Head to Head
Missouri holds a narrow 57-55-9 advantage in the historic rivalry, with Friday representing the 122nd meeting between the programs. The Tigers have won four straight entering the first game in Lawrence in 21 years.
- September 6, 2025: Missouri 42, Kansas 31
- November 26, 2011: Missouri 24, Kansas 10
- November 27, 2010: Missouri 35, Kansas 7
- November 28, 2009: Missouri 41, Kansas 39
- November 29, 2008: Kansas 40, Missouri 37
Last year's matchup was the first meeting since Missouri left the Big 12, and the Tigers erased an early Kansas lead before pulling away 42-31 in Columbia. The location flips this time, with Kansas hosting the rivalry for the first time since a 13-3 Jayhawks victory in 2005.
Missouri vs. Kansas Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 11th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- How to Watch: FOX
Missouri vs. Kansas Odds
- Spread: Missouri -5.5, Kansas +5.5
- Total Points: Over 50.5, Under 50.5
- Moneyline: Missouri (-220), Kansas (+185)
Click here for the latest Missouri vs. Kansas Odds
Missouri vs. Kansas Line Movement and Betting Splits
Kansas was available as high as +7 before the spread moved through six and settled at +5.5. The total has also fallen from approximately 51.5 to 50.5.
The ticket and money split is extreme. Missouri has 61% of spread bets but only 8% of the handle, while Kansas has just 39% of tickets and 92% of the money. That is a clear larger-wager profile on the home underdog and fits the substantial move toward the Jayhawks.
There is a similar discrepancy on the total, with the Over attracting 84% of bets but only 36% of the money. The Under has just 16% of tickets but 64% of the handle, another indication that larger wagers are taking a more conservative view of the matchup.
Missouri vs. Kansas Prediction
Simmons could not have looked much better in his Missouri debut. He completed nearly 90% of his passes, threw four first-half touchdowns and repeatedly converted third-and-long situations when the Tigers' running game was not producing efficiently. Missouri appears to have found a legitimate replacement at quarterback.
The difficulty is evaluating how much of that carries over against a real defense. Arkansas-Pine Bluff gave Missouri short fields and little resistance, while Kansas' opener provided much stronger defensive indicators. The Jayhawks held LIU to 146 yards, 35 rushing yards and only two third-down conversions while recording 11 tackles for loss.
Kansas' offense was equally impressive. Marshall showed the dual-threat ability that can create problems for Missouri's front, completing 14 of 19 passes without an interception while adding 49 yards on the ground. He does not have to match Simmons throw for throw if Kansas can continue generating production from Willis, Jalen Dupree and its deeper backfield.
McMillan also immediately looked like a major portal addition. His six catches for 130 yards included a 46-yard gain and a touchdown, giving Marshall a proven vertical option entering a rivalry game where explosive plays could decide the margin.
Missouri still has the more established roster and deservedly enters as the favorite. The Tigers won this matchup by 11 last season and have built considerably more consistency under Eli Drinkwitz than Kansas has produced over the past two years. But last season's result came in Columbia, and Friday's environment should be completely different.
Kansas has not hosted Missouri since 2005, giving this game a level of home-field energy that is difficult to reproduce against an ordinary nonconference opponent. The Jayhawks also enter with confidence after producing 613 yards in their opener rather than trying to discover a new offensive identity during the rivalry game itself.
The spread is the bigger issue. Missouri winning outright is very realistic, but Kansas can lose a competitive 27-24 or 30-27 game and cash comfortably. With two new quarterbacks who both looked excellent in Week 1, laying nearly a touchdown on the road in a rivalry matchup creates a high bar.
Missouri vs. Kansas Best Bet
- Best Bet: Kansas +5.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas is getting more than a field goal at home after showing balance on offense and holding its opener to only 146 total yards. Marshall looked comfortable immediately, McMillan added an explosive element in the passing game and the Jayhawks rushed for 277 yards.
The market action is even more compelling. Missouri owns 61% of the tickets but just 8% of the money, while Kansas has attracted 92% of the handle and moved from as high as +7 to +5.5. Missouri can remain the better team and still fail to clear this number in the first Border Showdown played in Lawrence in more than two decades.
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