Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 12th
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas meet for the third consecutive season after the Buckeyes controlled both recent matchups, including a 14-7 defensive battle last year. Both offenses exploded in their openers, but the rematch shifts to Austin with Arch Manning getting another opportunity to solve the nation's top-ranked team. Check out this Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 12.
Peter Alexis - September 12, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadOhio State vs. Texas Prediction: Can Arch Manning, Longhorns Get Revenge on Saturday Night?
Top-ranked Ohio State travels to Austin on Saturday night to face No. 4 Texas at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ABC, with Texas favored by 1.5 points in one of the biggest nonconference games of the season.
The Buckeyes opened with a 56-3 demolition of Ball State, while Texas beat Texas State 59-7. Julian Sayin and Manning both looked excellent against overmatched opponents, setting up a quarterback matchup that should provide a much better indication of how close these teams are nationally.
Ohio State vs. Texas Recent Results
Ohio State is 1-0 after beating Ball State 56-3. Sayin threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns, Jeremiah Smith topped 150 receiving yards and the Buckeyes held Ball State to 165 total yards. Ohio State went 12-2 and 9-0 in Big Ten regular-season play last year before losing the Big Ten Championship to Indiana and falling 24-14 to Miami in the Cotton Bowl.
Texas is 1-0 after a 59-7 win over Texas State. Manning threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns as the Longhorns produced 516 total yards and forced three turnovers. Texas finished 10-3 overall and 6-2 in SEC play last season before beating Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl.
Ohio State vs. Texas Head to Head
Ohio State leads the all-time series 3-2 and has won the last two meetings. All five games have come since 2005, and four have been decided by one possession before the final minutes.
- August 30, 2025: Ohio State 14, Texas 7
- January 10, 2025: Ohio State 28, Texas 14
- January 5, 2009: Texas 24, Ohio State 21
- September 9, 2006: Ohio State 24, Texas 7
- September 10, 2005: Texas 25, Ohio State 22
Last year's 14-7 game was almost entirely controlled by defense, with Ohio State limiting Texas to one touchdown in Columbus. The Buckeyes also eliminated Texas 28-14 in the CFP semifinal the previous January, meaning Manning and Steve Sarkisian have a clear opportunity to reverse a recent trend at home.
Ohio State vs. Texas Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 12th, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- How to Watch: ABC
Ohio State vs. Texas Odds
- Spread: Ohio State +1.5, Texas -1.5
- Total Points: Over 50.5, Under 50.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State +110, Texas -125
Click here for the latest Ohio State vs. Texas Odds
Ohio State vs. Texas Line Movement and Betting Splits
Texas opened around -1.5 to -2 and remains a narrow favorite, while the total has climbed from roughly 47.5 to 50.5. The side has been extremely stable compared with the aggressive move toward more scoring.
Ohio State has 57% of spread bets and 57% of the money, while Texas sits at 43% in both categories. The Buckeyes also have 61% of moneyline bets and 55% of the handle, making Ohio State the slightly more popular side even though the market continues to price Texas as the favorite.
Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction
Ohio State's Week 1 offense looked completely different from the group that scored only 14 against Texas last season. Sayin threw for 320 yards against Ball State, and Smith immediately reminded everyone why he is one of the country's most difficult individual matchups.
The Buckeyes also dominated defensively, allowing only three points and 165 yards. That is especially impressive considering Ohio State lost much of the personnel from a 2025 defense that allowed only 9.3 points and 219.1 yards per game. Ryan Day's program continues to replace NFL talent with more elite recruits rather than entering traditional rebuilding cycles.
Texas has the quarterback capable of answering. Manning completed 20 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns against Texas State and looked much more comfortable than he did against Ohio State in last year's opener. Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo give him multiple explosive perimeter options, which should prevent Ohio State from designing the entire game plan around one target.
The most important difference is location. Ohio State won last year's matchup in Columbus and the playoff meeting at a neutral site. Saturday gives Manning his first opportunity to face the Buckeyes with more than 100,000 Texas fans behind him at DKR, where the Longhorns have been extremely difficult to beat.
Texas also has enough defensive talent to prevent Ohio State from simply turning this into the Ball State game with better uniforms. The Longhorns held opponents to only 103.9 rushing yards per game last season and forced turnovers at a high rate, then created three more in the opener. Making Sayin consistently drive the length of the field is essential.
Ohio State's recent dominance in the series is the strongest argument for the other side. Day has beaten Texas twice in less than two years, and the Buckeyes just showed that the new defensive pieces can immediately play at a championship level.
The moneyline is therefore more attractive than laying -1.5. In a game where nearly every possession could matter, removing the spread and asking Texas simply to win at home creates the cleaner position. Manning does not need to erase the last two meetings with a dominant performance. He needs to produce one more scoring drive than Sayin.
Ohio State vs. Texas Best Bet
- Best Bet: Texas Moneyline (-125) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ohio State may still be the best team in the country, but this is the first time the current version of the Buckeyes has been tested away from Columbus. Texas has the more favorable setting, a veteran quarterback with direct experience against this opponent and an offense that looked significantly sharper in its opener.
The moneyline removes unnecessary spread risk in a matchup where one late field goal could decide everything. Texas has lost the last two meetings, but both came away from Austin. Backing the Longhorns simply to defend their home field at -125 is the strongest way to attack the rematch.
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