Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 19th
The Michigan State Spartans renew the Megaphone Trophy rivalry with No. 3 Notre Dame in a primetime matchup at Notre Dame Stadium. Can Alessio Milivojevic and Cam Edwards sustain enough offense against an Irish defense that has allowed only 13 points over its last six quarters while keeping CJ Carr from turning the game into another blowout? Check out this Michigan State vs. Notre Dame prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 19.
Peter Alexis - September 19, 2026, 4:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadMichigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction: Can Spartans Compete With CJ Carr, Fighting Irish on Saturday Night?
Michigan State takes its 2-0 start to South Bend for a 7:30 PM ET kickoff on NBC and Peacock, where Notre Dame is favored by 29.5 points. The Spartans have beaten Toledo 30-20 and Eastern Michigan 35-7 under first-year coach Pat Fitzgerald, while the Irish have handled Wisconsin 41-13 and Rice 52-0.
The enormous spread paired with a total of only 51.5 creates a very specific expectation. Notre Dame is being priced to dominate without Michigan State contributing much, which makes the total more dependent on how aggressively the Irish continue scoring once the game gets away from the Spartans.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Recent Results
Michigan State Spartans (2-0), (0-0 Big Ten)
Michigan State opened the Fitzgerald era with a 30-20 win over Toledo. The Spartans built a 19-7 halftime advantage and relied heavily on kicker Liam Boyd, who made five field goals, including a 51-yarder late in the fourth quarter.
They were more convincing against Eastern Michigan, winning 35-7 after scoring 21 unanswered second-half points. Milivojevic threw for 170 yards and two touchdowns, while Edwards rushed 21 times for 152 yards and two scores. Through two games, Edwards has 250 rushing yards and Milivojevic has completed 70.4% of his passes without an interception.
Michigan State went 4-8 overall and 1-8 in Big Ten play last year, so the 2-0 start already represents progress under the new staff. The quality of competition changes dramatically here.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0), (Independent)
Notre Dame opened at Lambeau Field with a 41-13 win over Wisconsin after leading only 13-10 at halftime. The Irish dominated the second half 28-3 and held Wisconsin to 1.4 yards per rush after the break.
Notre Dame then shut out Rice 52-0, outgaining the Owls 478-128 and holding them to 2-of-12 on third down. Carr completed 16 of 20 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns before giving way to the backups, while the Irish defense forced five fumbles and recovered four.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Head to Head
Notre Dame leads the historic series 49-29-1, although Michigan State has won 11 of the last 19 meetings. Eleven of the last 16 have been decided by one score or fewer, and Saturday marks the first meeting since 2017.
- September 23, 2017: Notre Dame 38, Michigan State 18
- September 17, 2016: Michigan State 36, Notre Dame 28
- September 21, 2013: Notre Dame 17, Michigan State 13
- September 15, 2012: Notre Dame 20, Michigan State 3
Notre Dame won the most recent meeting comfortably, but Michigan State won the last matchup played in South Bend. The current spread is much larger than anything associated with those recent rivalry games, reflecting the considerable gap in roster expectations entering 2026.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 19th, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
- How to Watch: NBC and Peacock
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Odds
- Spread: Michigan State +29.5 (-112), Notre Dame -29.5 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 51.5 (-118), Under 51.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Michigan State (+1700), Notre Dame (-4500)
Click here for the latest Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Odds
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Line Movement and Betting Splits
The spread market is far less one-sided than the moneyline. Notre Dame is taking roughly 62% of spread bets, but Michigan State is attracting 67% of the spread handle at +29.5, meaning the larger average spread wager is sitting with the underdog.
The total is the striking split. DraftKings currently shows 100% of tracked bets and 100% of the handle on Over 51.5. Every tracked total wager is concentrated on the same side despite a game script that expects Michigan State to contribute relatively little.
That creates a clear public-fade angle on the Under without requiring Michigan State to stay especially competitive.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Prediction
Notre Dame’s defense is the foundation of the Under case. Wisconsin scored 10 first-half points before being held to three after halftime, and Rice managed only 128 total yards the following week. Michigan State has been efficient against Toledo and Eastern Michigan, but neither opponent approaches the speed and depth the Spartans will see in South Bend.
Michigan State’s preferred offensive identity can also help shorten the game. Edwards has 48 carries through two weeks and is averaging 125 rushing yards per game. If Fitzgerald continues leaning on the ground game rather than forcing Milivojevic into 40-plus attempts against Notre Dame’s secondary, the Spartans can consume clock even without finishing many drives with touchdowns.
Carr and Notre Dame’s offense are efficient enough to threaten the Under by themselves. He has thrown six touchdowns without an interception and completed 71.4% of his passes, while the Irish scored 93 points in their first two games. The counter is that a 29.5-point spread creates a very different fourth-quarter incentive than a competitive game.
Notre Dame showed exactly how that can unfold against Rice. Carr played only the first half and one series after halftime, allowing the Irish to protect their starting quarterback once the game was decided. Another early four-touchdown margin against Michigan State would likely create the same opportunity for Marcus Freeman to rotate heavily rather than keep pressing toward 50-plus points.
The biggest risk is defensive scoring and short fields. Notre Dame recovered four Rice fumbles and scored a defensive touchdown 14 seconds into the game. If Michigan State repeatedly turns the ball over inside its own territory, the Irish can create points without asking the offense to sustain long possessions.
Milivojevic has protected the football well so far, however, throwing no interceptions through 54 attempts. Michigan State has also shown enough rushing competence to avoid being completely dependent on obvious dropback situations. Keeping turnovers under control is more important to the total than whether the Spartans can actually threaten the upset.
With the Over drawing every tracked DraftKings wager, the market expectation is clearly another Notre Dame scoring explosion. The Under can cash even if the Irish cover 29.5. Scores such as 38-7, 41-7 or 37-10 all represent complete Notre Dame domination while staying below 51.5.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Best Bet
- Best Bet: Under 51.5 (-102) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Michigan State is unlikely to generate enough explosive offense to contribute heavily against this Notre Dame defense, and the huge spread creates a realistic second-half scenario in which the Irish shorten the game with their backups. That combination makes the Under more attractive than trying to decide whether Notre Dame clears nearly 30 points.
The completely one-sided DraftKings Over betting adds another reason not to chase an obvious blowout narrative. Notre Dame can control every phase, hold Michigan State near single digits and still finish below the total once the starters begin leaving the field. A 41-7 type of result fits the wager.
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