- The Houston Texans are 4-8 ATS in 2020
- The Texans defense allows the longest drives, both in terms of time and plays per drive
While both teams are still technically alive in the playoff race, this is a huge matchup for the Chicago Bears, who are seeing their playoff hopes fall away after a 5-1 start. The Bears have now lost six in a row, while the Texans have won three of their last five.
This matchup is the traditional, bad offense against a bad defense and good offense against a good defense matchup. In those types of matchups I tend to lean on the team with the bad offense being able to capitalize on a bad defense.
After their run game has struggled in 2020, the Bears got their run game bubbling in the last two weeks, averaging 130 yards on the ground. This week, they face a Texans team allowing 4.9 yards per attempt and the most rushing yards to the RB position in the league.
The Bears defense ranks in the top 10 in a number of categories, including third-down and red-zone conversion. They can be vulnerable against the passing game, but the Texans are relying on their backup wide receivers for the most part. The Texans offensive line has been significantly better in 2020, but they will be up against it with the Bears defensive line, which can be a dominant group.
This is a matchup where I like the Bears to snap their losing streak and put themselves back into the playoff hunt at 6-7. Their offense should be able to move the ball, while their defense can provide just enough disruption to the Texans beleaguered passing game to come out on top. The key here is can David Montgomery and the Bears offense control the ball enough to keep their defense at the top of their game in the final minutes?
Look for this game to be a similar script to the Week 13 matchup between the Bears and Lions, with both teams getting into the 25-30 points range or higher. Thew weather is expected to be good and both passing offenses just be able to function. At 45.5, this likes a game that should have a chance to sail over.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Chicago Bears +1 @ -104
1u – Over 45.5 points @ +100
NFL Free Picks
Week 14 gets underway tonight with a Thursday Night Football clash between the Patriots and the Rams. We have another chance to see Bill Belichick face off with Sean McVay. The gameweek ends with that huge divisional clash between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football that we're all waiting for! In between we have a full slate of games, with a number of divisional games and big matchups. Elsewhere we're set to see Jalen Hurts first start for the Philadelphia Eagles who have announced him as the starter this week.
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