2022 NFL Prediction: Can Elijah Moore Hit His Receptions Total?

2022 NFL Prediction: Can Elijah Moore Hit His Receptions Total?

A lot of people think that betting the NFL in July is a bad idea. They say it's too early. The thing is, it's not. It just isn't. In fact, I'd go as far as saying it's never too early to bet the NFL. Never. I actually just happened to be looking through NFL lines on DraftKings when I noticed that they had player totals up. That is the official mark of a new NFL season. I don't like doing the Week 1 thing in July or even preseason, but I will start getting down on player totals. It just feels right. If the books are going to post lines, we should be betting them. The only bad part is none of these bets will cash for months with ties up cash, but it also can be viewed as present you giving a gift to future you. It's always nice to see that happen. People helping people is always powerful stuff. Even if it's a person helping themselves.

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Elijah Moore Over 64.5 Receptions (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

We're going to have to bet this one at DraftKings since I haven't seen other books with season-long player props out yet. If you see one, don't keep it to yourself. Hit me up on Twitter and share the wealth. I've checked FanDuel and BetMGM so far which has given me nothing in terms of happiness. They've got preseason lines and Week 1 stuff but no season long player totals. It's sad.

The thing with season-long NFL player props is you have to think about more than just a player's performance. The biggest thing to consider is injuries. Guys get hurt. This is football here people, not soccer. It happens every year. I actually just read a thread on Twitter by the great Connor Allen where he says the under is generally the move on these things. Injuries plays a big role in that being true. Still, before I get all under crazy, I'm looking for some over moves first. Life is too short to be an under guy. Even if it is the smart way of doing things.

Elijah Moore's reception number is a bit low for me. Even if he gets hurt like he did last season, he still could catch 65 balls this season. The guy missed six games last season and still grabbed 43 receptions. For starters, it's tough being a rookie but he also had a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson who literally looked like he never played football before at times during the season. As a result, only 68.8% of his targets were even deemed catchable. That's not great. It also didn't help that he only played 65% of the Jets' snaps in games he played. Both issues should get better this season.

For starters, Wilson should be better this season just because guys get better from year one to year two. On top of that, the Jets helped him out a little on the offensive line (Laken Tomlinson) which can't hurt. I know they took Garrett Wilson in the draft, but Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole are gone and those two played the most snaps at wide receiver for the Jets last season. Plus we're talking about a guy who was sitting at a 26% target per route run rate last season. To put that into perspective, Deebo Samuel was at 26.9%. This guy is filthy and he should be on the field more for a team that could be behind a lot. If Russell Gage could catch 66 last season, Moore should be able to get 65 this season.