2022 NFL Predictions: Should You Fade Derrick Henry?

2022 NFL Predictions: Should You Fade Derrick Henry?

The fine, fine people at DraftKings went in on season-long player props in a way that no other book has so far. We're talking a board full of guys to bet and if we're being honest, there's not a lot better than a board full of guys to bet. I simply can't get enough. We need this stuff. Lucky for us, I was already prepared when these things dropped. I've been doing mental simulation after mental simulation of the 2022 NFL Season so I know what time it is. The only thing I can reveal at this time is, it's going to be awesome. Like really good. What will make it even better when it gets here is having season-long prop bets that we made back in July to think about. It's classic us.

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Derrick Henry Under 1350.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

We're at DraftKings because I don't think anyone else has numbers for these guys yet. It's crazy. It's July, we need numbers. In fact, there are only two things that get me through July every year. Strikeout props and NFL season-long player props. Without them, I'm pretty sure July would be impossible to get through. Luckily, DraftKings cares about people in a way that no other book seems to. Hats off to them for that.

Here's the thing about season-long player props. Injuries are something to always think about. I know they suck and I know nobody wants to hope someone else gets hurt, but to pretend they don't exist is crazy. That's basically my way of saying there will be some unders bet this July. Lots of them. It doesn't make us haters, it just puts us in position to hedge later on if things look like they're going south. Everyone loves a win/win situation. Everyone knows that.

Do I like Derrick Henry? Of course. Who doesn't? But here's the thing. DraftKings tagged him with a number that he's only reached twice in his career. In both of those seasons, we saw the guy carry the ball 300+ times. (In fairness he could have reached 1351 rushing yards without 300 carries (math) but work with me here. That 300+ carry argument works in my favor so I'm using it.) Plus, the guy played in 15 and 16 games the years he eclipsed 300 totes. It's asking a lot for a guy who runs the way he does to do that. He only played in eight games last season for God's sake. (Also saw his YPC drop to 4.3 even though that stat stinks it's still worth noting.)

The thing Henry has going for him is that Tennessee runs the ball a lot. They were first in rushing attempts last season and second the year before. They've done nothing in the offseason to make us think anything will change. But one thing that's noticeable is there aren't likely to be many games where the Titans are going to be killing clock in the fourth quarter. Outside of the New York Giants, Houston Texans (2x), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2x), they could easily be trailing late in games which could cost King Henry carries. At the end of the day, he could easily do this but there are too many things working against him to bet on him to do it. It's better to bet he goes under.