Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings Same Game Parlay: Can Kirk Cousins Produce in Primetime?

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings Same Game Parlay: Can Kirk Cousins Produce in Primetime?

As quickly as Week 1 came to a close, Week 2 opens in Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with the Eagles hosting the Minnesota Vikings. The Philadelphia Eagles started 1-0 after covering against the New England Patriots as -3.5 favorites on the road, thanks to a turnover on downs on the last drive of the game where the Eagles defense stepped up. The Vikings started their season 0-1 after failing to win outright as -5 (or wherever you got that line with the crazy movement last week) favorites at home against Baker Mayfield and the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, the Vikings are 6.5-point underdogs on the road. I have a four-leg same-game parlay that pays out 12-to-1 to help get the week started off on the right foot.

Vikings vs. Eagles Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: September 14, 2023
• Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Prime Video

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings Same Game Parlay

Leg 1: Vikings +6.5

If you have been following me for a while or know me, you know I am a Vikings fan. However, let me reassure you that is not why I have put them in this parlay. I had people reach out to me and ask me what I thought of the Vikings on the spread, and I told everyone to stay away. While I didn't think the Vikings would lose outright, they just typically tend to let you down in spots where they are "expected" to win. Cousins had three turnovers, fumbling twice and throwing a pick (granted it wasn't really his fault), and it led to an outright Vikings loss. It wasn't really surprising to me as a Vikings fan. However, I like to bet numbers, not teams, and the Vikings happen to be a smart bet this Thursday.

First, the number. The spread sitting at 6.5 screams the underdog to me. This spread usually makes the favorite look enticing, as it is just below the key touchdown number of 7. However, over the last ten years, underdogs sitting at 6 or 6.5 points on the spread are 90-66-3 against the spread, covering at a 58% rate, which is impressive over a 10-year span.

Additionally, you might think that teams coming off a loss on Sunday and then playing on a short week as underdogs don't fare well with short prep for their next game, but it's been the opposite the last four seasons. Since 2019, road underdogs coming off a loss playing on Thursday are 11-4 against the spread.

While it looks enticing to back the Eagles just under a touchdown, the numbers tend to side with the Vikings in this spot. Yes, I know it's "Primetime Kirk," and he has been bad in primetime, but the Vikings play better when they are not expected to win, and this is a spot they can at least cover in.

Leg 2: Kirk Cousins Over 262.5 Passing Yards

Keeping the theme of a Vikings cover, I love Kirk to throw over 262.5 passing yards tonight. Even in a horrible game last week, Kirk threw for 344 yards. This is because the Vikings have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, who had 150 receiving yards alone. Rookie Jordan Addison quietly added 61 yards himself in his first NFL game. Trying to sound as unbiased as possible as a Vikings fan here; the Vikings may have one of the best wide-receiving cores in the NFL. The Vikings are weak in A LOT of areas, trust me, but wide receiver is not one of them.

While Kirk may not be one of the "elite" quarterbacks in the league, when you give good receivers to any capable quarterback, they are going to thrive. This is how Justin Jefferson set the record for most receiving yards over a player's first three seasons, and now they have Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson to target as well.

After losing Dalvin Cook, the Vikings are clearly going to be an air raid offense in 2023. That is without question. Kirk Cousins had 44 pass attempts in game one, while Alexander Mattison had 11 carries. Given that the Vikings are expected to lose this game, they will be in a negative game script and will be looking to pass from behind on the scoreboard. This is a game in which Kirk can easily pass 300 yards again, even if they lose again, just like last week.

Leg 3: DeVonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions

In game one, the Eagles actually struggled a bit offensively, but Jalen Hurts still found his top targets, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown and Smith both had ten targets and seven receptions, with Brown finishing slightly ahead of Smith in yards, 79 to 47. In Week 2, Brown is more favored in every category: yards, receptions, and even touchdowns. However, I love Smith's matchup in this game. Brown is the long ball guy, while Smith eats on the shorter routes and in the middle of the field. That is where the Vikings are weakest, and they will likely be looking to shut down the big play from Brown. This could mean a big game from Smith.

Smith already passed this line with seven receptions in Week 2, and I love plus money for him to do it again in Week 2. Smith hit six or more receptions in 10 of his 20 total games last season. He was targeted at least seven times in 15 of 20 games last season. Year 3 is typically when receivers start to hit their prime. Smith had seven receptions in the game against the Vikings last year and should do so again this week.

Leg 4: D'Andre Swift Over 33.5 Rushing Yards

Talk about a Week 1 overreaction line. After having just one carry in Week 1, D'Andre Swift's rushing line dropped from 39.5 in Week 1 to 33.5 in Week 2. However, Kenneth Gainwell, who had 14 of the 16 running back carries in week one, is out for this game. Rashaad Penny, who is listed as the fourth-string running back, has his line listed at 30.5 yards for tonight. Boston Scott's rushing line isn't even listed on FanDuel. So Swift, the starting running back in this game, is now listed at 33.5. This makes no sense.

Swift averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season on the Lions. His rushing attempts is set at 7.5 tonight, meaning even if he went UNDER his rushing attempts and only had seven, which is half of what Gainwell had last week, Swift would only need 4.5 yards per carry to hit 34 rushing yards. Coming from the guy who had 5.5 last season. This line makes no sense and is an overreaction to Week 1. If Gainwell was playing in this game, I would get it, but Swift will be the RB 1, and even if the Eagles only hand it off 15 times tonight, Swift should easily get at least seven of those, which would put him above this line even if he went under his average yards per carry from last season. Swift could easily hit 50 in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings 4- Leg Same Game Parlay (+1206) (Bet $100 to collect $1,306) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

• Leg 1: Vikings +6.5 (-120)
• Leg 2: Kirk Cousins Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110)
• Leg 3: DeVonta Smith Over 5.5 Receptions (+114)
• Leg 4: D'Andre Swift Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

NFL Odds

• Click here for Vikings vs. Eagles odds
• The Eagles had a bit of a scare in Week 1, were their odds affected by it? Get the latest Super Bowl odds here
• Click here for all NFL Week 2 odds here