Who Will Be Ranked in First AP Top 25 Poll of Season on Monday?
The 2026 preseason AP Top 25 will be released at noon ET on Monday, August 17, with several programs sitting directly on the edge of the rankings. Which teams will earn one of the final spots as voters weigh 2025 results, returning talent and expectations for the new season? Check out the latest AP Top 25 prediction-market odds and outlook for August 17.
Peter Alexis - August 17, 2026, 11:20 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill Florida, Clemson, Louisville Get Ranked in First AP Top 25 Poll of College Football Season Today?
The market is centered around the final few spots in the preseason AP Top 25, with Missouri carrying an 86% chance to make the rankings, followed by Houston at 59%, Louisville at 51%, Florida at 49%, Clemson at 46%, Virginia Tech at 40% and Auburn at 35%.
The Coaches Poll offers an important reference point: Clemson is already No. 23, Houston is No. 24 and Missouri is No. 25, while Louisville and Florida were the first two teams outside the rankings.
Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
AP Top 25 Poll Odds to be Ranked in Week 1
Team | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Missouri Tigers | 86% |
Houston Cougars | 59% |
Louisville Cardinals | 51% |
Florida Gators | 49% |
Clemson Tigers | 46% |
Virginia Tech Hokies | 40% |
Auburn Tigers | 35% |
AP Top 25 Poll - College Football Teams to be Ranked in Week 1
Missouri Tigers (86%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Missouri has surged 36 points to an 86% probability, and its No. 25 position in the Coaches Poll gives the market a clear foundation. The Tigers went 8-5 in 2025 and finished with a 13-7 Gator Bowl loss to Virginia, but consensus All-American running back Ahmad Hardy returns after setting the program's single-season rushing record at 1,649 yards, while tight end Brett Norfleet is back after catching a team-high five touchdowns.
Missouri received 158 Coaches Poll points, putting it directly on the cut line entering the AP vote.
Houston Cougars (59%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Houston has one of the strongest résumés of any team in this group after going 10-3 and beating LSU 38-35 in the Texas Bowl. Quarterback Conner Weigman returns after throwing four touchdowns in that bowl victory, while leading receiver Amare Thomas is also back after producing 67 catches for 966 yards and 12 touchdowns last season.
The Cougars are already No. 24 in the Coaches Poll, making their 59% market probability easier to justify than most teams near the bubble.
Louisville Cardinals (51%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Louisville sits almost exactly on the market's dividing line at 51% after finishing 9-4 and beating Toledo 27-22 in the Boca Raton Bowl. Running back Isaac Brown remains the centerpiece after rushing for 884 yards and seven touchdowns in only nine games, while the defense retains experienced pieces including Stanquan Clark and TJ Capers.
Louisville narrowly missed the Coaches Poll Top 25 with 153 points, just five behind No. 25 Missouri, making the Cardinals one of the clearest true bubble teams.
Florida Gators (49%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Florida is nearly a coin flip despite coming off a difficult 4-8 season, which ended on a positive note with a 40-21 victory over Florida State. The roster still contains considerable young talent, led by receiver Vernell Brown III, who paced Florida with 40 catches for 512 yards as a freshman, and linebacker Myles Graham, who led the team with 76 tackles.
The Gators received 147 Coaches Poll points, only six fewer than Louisville and 11 behind No. 25 Missouri, so there is clearly meaningful support for a preseason ranking despite last year's record.
Clemson Tigers (46%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Clemson's 46% probability is one of the more interesting numbers because the Tigers are already No. 23 in the Coaches Poll. Clemson stumbled to 7-6 last season and closed with a 22-10 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Penn State, but linebacker Sammy Brown returns with 194 career tackles and T.J. Moore enters 2026 with 97 career receptions for 1,488 yards.
The disappointing 2025 season creates more uncertainty than Clemson normally carries into August, but being two spots safely inside the Coaches Poll gives the Tigers an obvious path to surviving the AP cut as well.
Virginia Tech Hokies (40%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Virginia Tech is attracting considerably more prediction-market confidence than Coaches Poll support after a 3-9 season in 2025. The Hokies return leading rusher Marcellous Hawkins, who finished with 749 yards, and leading tackler Kaleb Spencer, who recorded 67 tackles and 9.0 tackles for loss, while James Franklin takes over a program undergoing a significant reset.
Virginia Tech received only 12 Coaches Poll points, leaving substantially more ground to make up than the other teams priced near 50%.
Auburn Tigers (35%) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Auburn went 5-7 last season and enters 2026 under new head coach Alex Golesh, but there are legitimate building blocks left on the roster. Running back Jeremiah Cobb returns after rushing for 969 yards, while linebacker Xavier Atkins is back after leading Auburn with 84 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and nine sacks.
The Tigers received 29 votes in the Coaches Poll, putting them ahead of Virginia Tech in that voting but still well behind Louisville and Florida in the race to crack the Top 25.
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