Who Will Be Ranked No. 1 Overall When College Football AP Top 25 Poll Comes Out on Monday, August 17th
The 2026 AP Top 25 preseason poll will be released at noon ET on Monday, August 17, with Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame among the leading candidates to open the season at No. 1. Will the media follow the coaches and put the Buckeyes on top, or can another national contender take the first No. 1 ranking of the year? Check out the latest No. 1 AP Poll prediction-market odds and outlook for August 17.
Peter Alexis - August 17, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadOhio State Heavy Favorite to be No. 1 Overall Team in AP Top 25 Week 1 Poll on Monday, August 17th
The first AP Top 25 of the 2026 college football season arrives at noon ET on Monday, and the prediction market has become increasingly one-sided in the final hours before the rankings are revealed. Ohio State is up to a 90% chance of being ranked No. 1, followed by Oregon at 14% and Notre Dame at just 3%. The market has generated $38,469 in volume.
There is already a strong blueprint for how the voting could unfold. Ohio State was comfortably No. 1 in the preseason Coaches Poll, collecting 38 of 72 first-place votes. Oregon finished second with six first-place votes, while Notre Dame was fifth with five.
Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
AP Poll College Football Number 1 Overall Team
Team | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Ohio State Buckeyes | 26% |
New York Jets | 20% |
Arizona Cardinals | 19% |
AP Top 25 Poll - College Football No. 1 Overall Team Odds
Ohio State Buckeyes (90% Chance) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Ohio State's 90% probability has risen another three points, and there is little reason to fight the market this close to the release. The Buckeyes went 12-2 last season, spending much of the year atop the AP Poll before losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and then falling 24-14 to Miami in the CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl.
Most importantly for a preseason ranking, Ohio State brings back elite offensive centerpiece talent. Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith is back after producing 87 catches for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns. The combination of an established quarterback, arguably the country's premier receiver and another loaded roster made Ohio State the clear choice among coaches, and there is little evidence the AP voters will view the Buckeyes much differently.
Oregon Ducks (14% Chance) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Oregon is the only team on this board with a realistic chance to spoil the expected result, and its probability has surged 13 points to 14%. The Ducks went 13-2 last season and reached the CFP semifinal before their run ended with a 56-22 loss to eventual national champion Indiana in the Peach Bowl.
Dan Lanning also returns his starting quarterback, with Dante Moore coming off a season in which he completed 71.8% of his passes for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns. Oregon has the roster quality to draw No. 1 votes and already sits directly behind Ohio State in the Coaches Poll, but the six first-place votes it received compared with Ohio State's 38 illustrate the size of the gap it must overcome.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3% Chance) Bet on the AP Top 25 Poll with Kalshi Here
Notre Dame is down four points to a 3% chance and looks much more likely to begin the season somewhere inside the top five than at No. 1. The Fighting Irish finished 10-2 in 2025, missed the College Football Playoff and ultimately opted out of a bowl game, ending what had become a 10-game winning streak after an 0-2 start.
C.J. Carr gives Marcus Freeman an established quarterback after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns during his freshman season, and the Irish were No. 5 in the Coaches Poll. That makes Notre Dame a legitimate national championship contender, but there is a significant difference between belonging in the preseason top five and accumulating enough first-place votes to jump both Ohio State and Oregon.
More of oddschecker
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
