Week 6 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 6 of the Season?
We have a great Week 6 NFL slate coming up. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - October 11, 2023, 10:40 AM EDT
9 minWeek 6 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 6 of the Season?
After a couple of down weeks, we bounced back in a major way with our four Week 5 NFL picks, finishing the slate 3-1. Only Baltimore failed to cash their -2.5 alternate spread in an ugly, low-scoring loss on the road against Pittsburgh. The Chiefs wound up holding off the Vikings' late push to cover -4 ATS, while Travis Etienne and the Jaguars rolled the Bills to easily cash +5.5 ATS in London. The New York Jets also stuck it to Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos at +116 moneyline underdogs, recording an outright win on the road, with Breece Hall ripping off a huge touchdown run to give the Jets momentum, closing out a high-scoring game at Mile High.
Week 6 presents several quality matchups, with only the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers on Bye. Injuries are beginning to affect some of the league's best players, ranging from Justin Jefferson and De'Von Achane, to James Conner and Anthony Richardson. Oddsmakers at FanDuel have seven game spreads at three points or less, so we should be getting a highly competitive, entertaining slate to bet on this week. Of course, there are a few lopsided lines, with Buffalo laying -14 ATS in prime time against the New York Giants, while the Chiefs host the Broncos at -10.5 ATS, and the Panthers getting +13.5 ATS in South Beach against the high-flying Miami Dolphins offense.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay returns to build off of the momentum from Week 5 with four games to bet on, offering plenty of analysis to support each wager on an exciting Week 6 NFL slate.
Week 6 NFL Picks
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Oddsmakers at FanDuel are giving the Denver Broncos +10.5 ATS on the road against Kansas City, who have won 15 consecutive head-to-head matchups against the Broncos. Denver is one of the worst defenses in the league this season, generating minimal pressure, while going up against a Chiefs' offensive line unit that ranks first in sack percentage allowed. This means Patrick Mahomes will have plenty of time to dissect a porous Broncos pass defense, or turn to any of his skilled position players to make plays themselves. One in particular stands out. Jerick McKinnon, the Chiefs' RB2, has been dominant against the Broncos since joining Kansas City in 2020. McKinnon has scored five touchdowns against Denver, including four in 2022, all four coming on receptions. Denver has surrendered 13 receiving touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns this season. McKinnon plays 30 percent of snaps, with a 6.6 percent target share, drawing three targets in three of his past four games. He scored two against the Bears, both receiving touchdowns in the red zone, so McKinnon's anytime touchdown scorer prop at +360 odds is a multi-unit lock for Thursday Night Football.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati and Seattle is shaping up to be a great Week 6 matchup, with the Bengals returning home to Paycor Stadium to host the scrappy Seahawks. Seattle is 3-1 ATS this season, while the Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread at home in four consecutive outings. The Seahawks' run defense is stout, and while its pass defense tends to give up big plays, they are ranked top-ten in touchdown percentage allowed on pass attempts at three percent. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase were rolling against the Cardinals, but this could regress a bit in Week 6. The under has cashed in half of Seattle's games, while the Bengals just went over the point total line for only the second time this season in Week 5. However, this could be a game where Seattle manages to cover +3 ATS. Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread at home this season, and the Seahawks grind clock with a run-centric offense that has enough playmakers to finish drives in the end zone. Let's throw a unit on the Seahawks to cover their +3 spread at -110 odds on FanDuel during a road trip to Cincinnati in Week 6.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland hosts the San Francisco 49ers off of its Week 5 Bye, getting +5.5 ATS. Deshaun Watson's rotator cuff bruise could keep him out another week and we saw how poorly the offense performed with rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center against Baltimore in Week 4. The point total line is among the lowest on the Week 6 slate at 37.5 points, however, the 49ers have yet to score less than 30 points in a game this season. We're playing with fire if we target either side of the point total line, so let's look into the spread. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS against NFC West opponents entering this game, while the 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Myles Garrett and the Browns' defensive line will be integral to keeping the Browns competitive in this game, but there are simply too many weapons in San Francisco's offense to have any confidence backing the Browns. Let's roll with 49ers -5.5 ATS on the road against a
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta will host the Washington Commanders in Week 6, laying -2.5 ATS as slight home favorites. The Falcons rank top-eight in pressure percentage, quarterback knockdown percentage, and hurry percentage, upgrading its defensive line this offseason, which is currently paying dividends. On the other side, the Commanders are giving up the second-highest sack percentage in the league at 13.2%, so this is a mismatch the Falcons should be able to exploit. As good as the Falcons play at home, they are only 1-4 ATS this season, while getting only 2.5 points to cover the spread in this game. Washington's offense has managed to score at least 20 points in four of its five games, while the Falcons rely on their defense and rushing attack to grind out close, low-scoring wins, scoring no more than 25 points this season. The best bet in this game is to stick with the Falcons' moneyline at -136 odds, as they are undefeated at home with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. This could be a 23-21 Falcons' win, which would be another failure to cover the spread, while the under isn't trustworthy at 42 with a Washington offense that can move the football quickly with its passing attack. The Atlanta moneyline is a bit juiced at -136, but it's the best bet to make in this interdivisional NFC matchup.
Week 6 NFL Picks
- Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD Scorer (+360) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Seahawks +3 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns: 49ers -5.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons: Falcons Moneyline (-136) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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