Week 7 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 7 of the Season?
NFL Week 6 NFL was something else so let's hope NFL Week 7 is better. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - October 18, 2023, 4:13 PM EDT
9 minWeek 7 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 7 of the Season?
Week 6 in the NFL was brutal for a lot of sports bettors, especially here, where we went 0-4 for our official NFL picks on the slate. We've had much better weeks, so let's have a goldfish memory, while learning from our mistakes, and find the best betting lines to exploit to build our bankroll on the Week 7 NFL slate.
Week 7 will send six teams to their Bye but there are still some excellent games to bet on, starting with an interesting matchup on Thursday Night Football between the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints. Other games handicapped in this week's picks include the Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium, the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers on the road at SoFi Stadium against the 3-3 Los Angeles Rams, and the game of the week between the red-hot Miami Dolphins versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Injuries and a busy Bye Week will create a lot of sharp lines across multiple sportsbooks with fewer games to handicap, but we're here to recoup our Week 6 losses with a vengeance. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to give us his best NFL Week 7 picks to bet, so let's jump right into these matchups.
Week 7 NFL Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints
There are quite a few under trends in this Thursday night game between the Jaguars and Saints. It makes sense, as New Orleans' offense is 26th in yards per play (4.6), with Derek Carr struggling to consistently produce enough to keep the Saints above .500. Jacksonville had a two-week rough patch against the Chiefs and Texans, but they've looked much better lately, relying on Travis Etienne to rack up four touchdowns in their last two games while ripping off chunk plays in the run game.
The Saints are stout defensively, ranked fourth in yards per play allowed (4.6), allowing only 29 percent of opponent drives to end with a score. New Orleans has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 16 home games against the AFC, while each of their last 12 games has gone under. The point total in this prime time matchup is 39.5, while the Jaguars find themselves +1.5 ATS as road underdogs. Etienne will have a much tougher time against the Saints' run defense, which has allowed only one rushing touchdown, while the Saints' anemic offense won't be able to establish the run against the Jaguars' defensive front, giving up just 3.6 YPC.
It's tough to pick a side in this game, but let's stick with the under despite the low point total of 39.5. The Saints haven't scored more than 15 points at the Superdome, while the Jaguars have scored 23 points or less in all of their games not against Buffalo or Indianapolis. A final score of 20-13 or 21-16 seems like the most likely outcome, so let's wager a couple of units on under 39.5 at -105 odds.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is -3 ATS in a home game matchup against arguably the best team in the league right now. The Detroit Lions have justified their offseason hype, with Jared Goff and Aidan Hutchinson dominating on offense and defense, relying on a physical, blue-collar play style emblematic of head coach Dan Campbell. The Lions are playing their second consecutive road game after handling Tampa Bay 20-6, and the Ravens have looked vulnerable at times this season, losing at home to Gardner Minshew and the Colts, while getting shut down by Pittsburgh on the road in Week 5.
Lamar Jackson will have his hands full against the Lions defense, which is stacked at all three levels, while generating the second-highest hurry percentage and ranking inside the top-ten for pressure percentage. Jackson struggles under pressure, like many quarterbacks, so he'll likely rely on his mobility to evade defenders in the pocket to find open space. Conversely, the Lions' offensive line is a top-five unit in the league, allowing Jared Goff to set-up play action throws downfield to a variety of weapons within Detroit's offense.
Baltimore, shockingly, is one of the worst defenses at generating pressure and disrupting this season, although they are solid against the run, surrendering only one rushing touchdown this season. They are also first in passing touchdowns allowed (4) this year, forcing teams to settle for field goals frequently. This changes in Week 7. The Lions have the talent and confidence to outplay the Ravens, who are still searching for their offensive identity under OC Todd Monken. We're hammering the Lions moneyline at +128 odds, as they have won each of their last five road games SU as underdogs.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pittsburgh has found ways to scrap its way into a 3-2 record to stay competitive in the AFC North, despite its rushing attack sputtering and forcing Kenny Pickett and George Pickens to create explosive plays downfield. This matchup, however, presents a good opportunity for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to be productive in the Steelers' rushing attack.
Los Angeles is tough to throw on, but they are allowing 4.3 yards per rushing attempt, ranked 11th-highest in the league, while giving up six rushing touchdowns. The Rams' offense is potent and pass-centric with a quality wide receiving corps, which could inflict plenty of damage against the Steelers' secondary, which is giving up the 12th-most net passing yards per attempt (6.2) and eight receiving touchdowns this season.
The point total line is set to 43.5 in this game, which feels too low. The under cashed in 13 of 16 games in Week 6, but this doesn't mean it will continue, especially on a fast surface like SoFi Stadium, where the Rams will be able to move the ball into the red zone relatively easily with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Pittsburgh has shown the ability to make big plays with wideout George Pickens, and now they get Diontae Johnson back off of IR, adding a much needed weapon back into its lineup.
Let's bet a unit on over 43.5 total points in this interconference matchup between two defenses with weaknesses, plus a Rams offense that has scored at least 23 points in four of its six games.
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts will be one of the most entertaining matchups to watch this weekend, as the Miami Dolphins travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Hurts threw three interceptions against a tough Jets defense in Week 6, despite numerous starters out with injuries for New York. Philadelphia has a great offensive line, executing the Brotherly Shove with ease, but its offense has looked a bit out of sync with OC Shane Steichen now the head coach in Indianapolis.
Philadelphia is still averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense, ranked ninth in the league, and the combination of A.J. Brown, D'Andre Swift, and Devonta Smith, alongside Hurts, is an elite core of skilled player talent against any defense. Miami's defense has certainly played better this season under DC Vic Fangio, but it's still 19th in yards per play allowed (5.2), so the Eagles coming off of a tough loss should be ready to stay aggressive early and often.
Miami has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games, winning five of their six outright to start the season, while hitting the point total over in five of their last six road games. Oddsmakers have the point total line set to 51.5 in a prime time showdown at Lincoln Financial Field, with -115 odds on the under. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS, while the Eagles are 3-2-1 ATS. Philadelphia has been getting gashed defending the passing attack, and Miami has the most explosive pass game out of any team in the league through six weeks. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert have been going ballistic and the Eagles' only hope is to generate enough pressure up front, which they are more than capable of doing, to force Tagovailoa into bad decision-making like we saw against the Bills.
Philadelphia ultimately will do enough to execute a sound game plan against a Miami defense that is more lackluster than the Eagles' offense, as Philadelphia's ability to generate pressure and hurry quarterbacks will be enough to keep the Dolphins' offense in neutral, while its run defense can contain Mostert's speed. Here, we're staking two units on the Eagles' moneyline at -134 odds.
Week 7 NFL Picks
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints: Under 39.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens: Lions Moneyline (+134) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams: Over 43.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles Moneyline (-134) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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