Week 9 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 9 of the NFL Season
Week 9 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 9 of the NFL Season
The NFL saw quite a number of upsets in Week 8 with all 32 teams playing, as the Bengals beat the 49ers on the road, the Carolina Panthers won their first game of the season over Houston, and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs fell 24-9 to the Denver Broncos for the first time in 16 head-to-head matchups.
It was an exciting slate to watch, with our official NFL picks going 2-2. The Jets scrounged up a 13-10 overtime win against the New York Giants, stifling the Giants' offense that resulted in multiple injuries, including Tyrod Taylor and Darren Waller. They were -146 moneyline favorites in the battle for Met Life Stadium, giving us our first win, while the Philadelphia Eagles used the entire 60 minutes to wind up covering as -6.5 ATS on the road against Washington, winning 38-31.
Our two losses were C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans losing to Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers on a walk-off field goal in an ugly, low-scoring 15-13 contest. For the Bills vs. Buccaneers game, we moved into the NFL player prop market and invested in a Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown scorer, which didn't happen. Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and Josh Allen were the three Bills players to find the end zone.
As always, the goal is to return to 4-0, but we're going to build off of 2-2 entering the NFL Week 9 slate. Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, and San Francisco will be on a bye, but there's still a ton of marquee games to handicap. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay shares his best NFL Week 9 picks to bet.
Week 9 NFL PICKS
TENNESSEE TITANS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The debut of Will Levis as the Titans' QB1 resulted in a big win and a monster outing for the second-round rookie signal-caller against Atlanta in Week 8. Levis totaled four passing touchdowns, three to wideout DeAndre Hopkins, with three of his touchdown passes ranging between 33 yards and 61 yards.
Now, Levis gets a Steelers pass defense ranked fifth-highest in net yards per pass attempt (6.5) and 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, with the latter ranking sixth-highest in the league. Derrick Henry, Levis, and Hopkins should have a good outing, but the presence of T.J. Watt off the edge, combined with the return of Cameron Heyward could shore things up a bit.
The Titans' pass defense is just as susceptible to explosive plays like the Steelers' secondary, surrendering 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, while allowing 43.2 percent of drives to end in a score, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. For comparison, the Steelers are 16th at 35.4 percent. Tennessee has lost six consecutive road games, its offensive line gives up an 11.4 percent sack rate, third-highest in the league, and Pittsburgh has covered the spread in six of their last seven games against teams under .500.
Oddsmakers have the Steelers -2.5 ATS, which is through the key number of 3, so with Kenny Pickett practicing in limited capacity, signaling his availability, let's wager a unit on Pittsburgh to cover at home in prime time as -2.5-point favorites against an inexperienced quarterback making his first start on the road in prime time behind a bad offensive line.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
The 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff returns with a highly anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins overseas at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.
Kansas City just lost to Denver outright on the road 24-9, in a game where Patrick Mahomes failed to record a touchdown and wound up throwing two interceptions. Miami's coming off of a 31-17 win over New England, but both of its losses came against other top-tier teams like the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 16 games, while the Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games played at neutral sites. Oddsmakers have the Chiefs -2.5 ATS, with a point total line set to 50.5 with juice on the over. However, seven of the Chiefs' last eight games against AFC opponents went under the point total line.
Kansas City has a very talented defense and its bailed out a sputtering Chiefs offense throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have only managed to score 20 points or less in both of their previous losses. The Chiefs have scored 27 or fewer points in four of their last five games. This leads us to betting the under 50.5 total point line at -108 odds.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson will face off at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland in Week 9, as the Ravens host the Seahawks. Seattle's late comeback against the Browns in Week 8 showcased their resiliency and ability to respond to adversity. It's concerning that the Seahawks' defense allowed the P.J. Walker to rack up 248 passing yards, as Jackson just shredded the Lions' defense in Week 7 at home for 357 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Both Seattle and Baltimore's defenses rank top-12 in fewest drives ending in a scoring possession. Baltimore is tougher to pass on than rushing the ball, surrendering 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 14th-most in the league. Compare this to allowing 4.2 net yards per attempt, which ranks first, and we should expect a heavy dose of running from Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron, who like to establish the run with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.
The Ravens turned to Gus Edwards to manufacture first downs and touchdowns in their road win over Arizona in Week 8, so they can beat opponents multiple ways within Todd Monken's offense. Baltimore has won nine consecutive games outright against NFC opponents at home, while covering the spread in five of their lats six games against teams with a winning record.
Oddsmakers are expecting the Ravens to roll at home, making them -5.5 ATS. This feels like a lot of points to lay. Both teams like to run the football, while their defenses are solid units throughout. Only one game has eclipsed 42 points at M&T Bank Stadium this season, which happened when Jackson and the Ravens trounced the Lions 38-6 in Week 7. This could easily wind up being a 20-17 or 23-16 final score, so let's invest in another under, taking under 42.5 at -104.
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
We will be treated to a great matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles on the late afternoon slate in Week 9.
Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts haven't played each other due to injuries in their last several matchups, so this will be a good one no matter the outcome. Dallas has played much better at home than on the road, where they will enter hostile territory in a fierce divisional rivalry.
A.J. Brown is on a historic tear right now, entering Week 9 with six consecutive games reaching at least 127 receiving yards. We saw CeeDee Lamb pop off for 12-158-2 on 14 targets in Week 8 against a talented Rams defense, so we should get our popcorn ready for these two to go back and forth at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles' defense allows a 5.0 percent touchdown rate on pass attempts this season, ranked sixth-highest in the league, while the Cowboys aren't far behind at 4.5 percent, which is eighth-highest.
Philadelphia has won each of its last eight games against NFC opponents, while the favorites have covered the spread in eight of Dallas' last nine games. The Cowboys two losses both came on the road against Arizona and San Francisco, while each of the past five games between Dallas and Philadelphia has gone over the point total line.
Currently, we're getting 46 total points, meaning we could get a push, but this feels like a game where the over smashes. The Eagles just gave up 31 points, 397 passing yards, and four passing touchdowns to Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders in Week 8, so expect Prescott and the Cowboys to stay aggressive early to expose this weakness. Lots of explosive plays are in store, so let's place a couple of units on over 46 total points to be scored in this NFC East rivalry game.
Week 9 NFL Picks
- Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers -2.5 (-114) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins: Under 50.5 (-108) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens: Under 42.5 (-104) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Over 46 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.