Bengals vs. Packers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 6
The Green Bay Packers are finally back home after a bye, and will hope to crush the struggling Cincinnati Bengals to get their season back on track. The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco this week and will throw him into the mix, can they turn it around with the veteran? Let's take a look at this Bengals vs. Packers prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 12th.
OC Staff - October 12, 2025, 12:25 PM EDT
6 Minute ReadBengals vs. Packers Prediction: Can Joe Flacco Save Disastrous Bengals Season?
The Cincinnati Bengals are in freefall, dropping three straight games since Joe Burrow’s injury sidelined him for the next several months. Backup Jake Browning struggled mightily in his place, as the Bengals failed to find the end zone consistently and suffered a string of lopsided defeats. Desperation set in this week, leading Cincinnati to acquire veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, who will make his first start of the season on Sunday. The Bengals are hoping Flacco’s experience and leadership can provide a temporary spark to a team that’s fallen apart offensively since Burrow’s exit.
The Green Bay Packers, meanwhile, return from their bye week rested and ready, hosting their first home game at Lambeau Field since early September. Jordan Love and the Packers have quietly started to build momentum, sitting near the top of the NFC standings thanks to an efficient offense and an opportunistic defense. They’ll enter Sunday’s matchup as heavy 14.5-point favorites, looking to keep their rhythm against a Bengals team that has been outscored by 55 points over the last three games.
For Cincinnati, this feels like a last-ditch effort to salvage the season, while Green Bay has an opportunity to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. The Packers’ defense will likely pressure Flacco early and often, testing his rust and pocket mobility. If the Bengals can’t protect him or get Joe Mixon going on the ground, this could quickly turn into another long afternoon for Zac Taylor’s group as the Packers look to cruise to a comfortable win at home.
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Bengals vs. Packers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Bengals vs. Packers Odds
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Bengals vs. Packers Prediction
This game presents a prime opportunity for Packers QB Jordan Love to assert himself. Love is projected for a solid outing: 21 completions on 31 attempts, 243.7 passing yards, and 0.6 interceptions. While his historical splits against top-10 pass defenses (averaging a 90.7 Passer Rating and 223.0 YPG) are modest, he faces a Bengals unit that ranks a dismal 27th in QB Rating Allowed – a stark contrast to the elite defenses he's sometimes struggled against.
Expect Love to target his primary receivers, especially Tucker Kraft. Kraft, projected for 4.3 receptions and 49.2 yards, steps into a particularly advantageous situation given Cincinnati's defensive struggles in the air. Our model identifies a moderate advantage on Kraft going Over 49.5 receiving yards at 1.91 (-110) odds, with an Expected Value of 3.8%. This suggests the Bengals' aerial vulnerabilities could lead to a productive day for Green Bay's passing game, offering a solid opportunity for investors.
The ground battle will be equally crucial in dictating the pace and control of the game. Packers RB Josh Jacobs is projected for 18.0 carries and 75.0 rushing yards. He'll be running against a Bengals defense that ranks 17th in Rush Yards/Carry Allowed – a middle-of-the-pack unit that isn't impenetrable. Despite the Bengals not being a top-tier run defense, our model sees a significant edge on Jacobs' rushing prop. It flags a high-value opportunity on him going Under 75.0 rushing yards at 1.91 (-110) odds, boasting a substantial 14.3% Expected Value. This suggests that while Jacobs is the workhorse, the market might be overestimating his output against a defense that, while not elite, may be undervalued in its ability to contain the run, potentially forcing Love to carry more of the offensive load.
Conversely, the Bengals' struggling offense, now led by Joe Flacco, faces a different challenge. Flacco is projected for 23 completions on 37 attempts, 219.4 yards, and 0.8 interceptions. Historically, Flacco has shown surprising resilience against top-tier pass defenses, averaging an impressive 311.5 YPG and a 103.6 Passer Rating in two such games, with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He'll face a Packers pass defense that ranks a respectable 11th in QB Rating Allowed and 9th in sacks. While Flacco's historical numbers against elite units are strong, the Packers' consistent pressure could limit his ability to connect with star receiver Ja'Marr Chase (projected 6.3 Rec, 68.3 Yds).
Furthermore, if the Packers' 5th-ranked run defense stifles Chase Brown (projected 13.0 Att, 45.0 Yds) – especially given the negative EV on his Over 45.0 rushing yards prop at 1.91 (-110) with an EV of -2.5% – then Flacco will be forced into more obvious passing situations, potentially playing right into Green Bay's potent pass rush.
Ultimately, the battle that will likely define this game is whether Jordan Love can capitalize on the Bengals' 27th-ranked pass defense. If Love, aided by the favorable matchup for Tucker Kraft and the overall weakness in the Cincinnati secondary, can establish an efficient passing attack, it will alleviate pressure on Josh Jacobs and force the Bengals' offense to play from behind.
While Flacco has shown flashes against tough pass defenses, the Packers' consistent pass rush and strong run defense present a formidable obstacle. Therefore, the ability of Jordan Love to exploit the Bengals' aerial vulnerabilities stands out as the most decisive factor in this Week 6 showdown.
Bengals vs. Packers Pick
- Pick: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) Click here to get these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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