Cowboys vs. Raiders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Monday Night Football
The Dallas Cowboys will play their second-straight Monday Night Football game when they visit the Las Vegas Raiders tonight. Dak and the Cowboys are coming off a bye after losing to the Cardinals, can they turn it against the struggling Raiders? Let's take a look at this Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction and best bet for Monday, November 17th.
OC Staff - November 17, 2025, 1:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadCowboys vs. Raiders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Monday Night Football
As Monday Night Football descends upon us, a battle of attrition unfolds between two teams desperate to reverse their fortunes. The Dallas Cowboys (3-5, #11 in conference) limp into Allegiant Stadium having lost their last two contests, their road record a dismal 1-4.
They face the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, #13 in conference), who are in an even deeper hole, having dropped three straight and sporting a 1-3 home record. This contest isn't just about pride; it's about identifying the individual matchups that will dictate which team can finally claw its way back into contention.
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Cowboys vs. Raiders Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, November 17, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- How to Watch: ESPN
Cowboys vs. Raiders Odds
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Cowboys vs. Raiders Prediction
The most glaring and potentially game-altering mismatch of the evening pits Las Vegas Raiders QB Geno Smith against the Dallas Cowboys' beleaguered Pass Defense. Smith, projected for 22/33 completions, 231.0 yards, and 0.7 interceptions, has historically struggled against elite units. His splits against Top-10 Pass Defenses show a pedestrian 81.9 Passer Rating and a concerning 0.8 TD:INT ratio across 8 games. However, the Cowboys’ pass defense is anything but elite; they rank a dismal 31st in the league against opposing QB Rating Allowed.
This is not a Top-10 defense, but rather one near the very bottom. This sets up a critical narrative: Can Geno Smith, typically subdued by top-tier competition, exploit a significantly weaker pass defense to give his team a much-needed boost? His projection suggests a somewhat conservative output, yet the opponent's weakness opens the door for a performance that could well exceed expectations, offering a rare opportunity for the Raiders' aerial attack.
Conversely, the Cowboys' offense will look to capitalize on their own matchups, with particular attention to Dak Prescott's command against the Raiders' Pass Defense, and how that enables his key playmakers. Prescott is projected for a solid 24/35 completions, 258.5 yards, and 0.6 interceptions. Against Top-10 Pass Defenses, Dak has shown more resilience than Smith, maintaining an 88.6 Passer Rating and a 2.0 TD:INT ratio over 4 games.
The Raiders' pass defense ranks 14th in QB Rating Allowed, positioning them as a middle-of-the-road unit. This suggests a favorable, but not overwhelming, environment for Prescott to operate. The story here shifts to his primary targets. Wide receiver George Pickens, projected for 5.2 receptions and 73.9 receiving yards, faces this respectable but beatable secondary. Our model identifies a significant edge on his 'Over 64.5 receiving yards' prop at 1.91 (-110) odds (EV: 11.2%). This suggests that while the Raiders' secondary isn't a pushover, Pickens is poised for a strong outing, likely due to Prescott’s ability to find him within this defensive scheme.
The final pivotal clash spotlights Javonte Williams, the Cowboys' lead back, against the imposing Las Vegas Raiders Run Defense. Williams is projected for 16.5 carries and 69.6 rushing yards. The Raiders, however, boast the 4th-ranked rush defense in the league, allowing very few yards per carry. This presents a stark challenge for Williams and the Cowboys' ground game.
The data points to a tough afternoon for Williams, as our model finds a strong edge on his 'Under 75.5 rushing yards' prop at 1.91 (-110) odds (EV: 6.2%). This matchup could force the Cowboys to lean more heavily on Prescott's arm, shifting the offensive balance away from their preferred run-pass equilibrium. The Raiders' stout run defense, coupled with their average pass defense, sets up a fascinating dynamic for Dallas's play-calling. If they cannot establish the run, Prescott's performance, and by extension Pickens', becomes even more crucial.
Ultimately, while the Cowboys' offensive opportunities against the Raiders' middle-tier pass defense are clear, the most decisive factor in this Monday Night Football contest will be Geno Smith's ability to exploit the truly porous Dallas Cowboys pass defense. If Smith can shed his historical struggles against elite units and instead capitalize on the Cowboys' 31st-ranked pass defense, it could provide the spark the Raiders desperately need. His performance will not only dictate the Raiders' offensive rhythm but also dictate whether the Cowboys' high-flying offense will be forced into a shootout or can control the tempo of the game.
Cowboys vs. Raiders Pick
Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (-105) Check out these these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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