Bills vs. Texans Prediction: Can Davis Mills, Texans Compete with Buffalo on Thursday Night Football?
The Houston Texans will rely on Davis Mills for a third straight game on Thursday Night Football as he tries to stun Josh Allen and the Bills. Can the Texans pull the home upset on TNF? McBets is targeting the better defense in this Bills vs. Texans prediction for November 20th.
McBets - November 20, 2025, 6:15 PM EST
4 Minute ReadBills vs. Texans Prediction: Backing Davis Mills, Home Underdog Texans on Thursday Night Football
We’ve got a classic Thursday Night Football setup here: a road favorite on a short week, banged up, inconsistent early in games, and facing a defense that is absolutely capable of making this ugly for four quarters. That’s exactly the kind of matchup where grabbing the points has real value.
Let’s start with Buffalo. The final scores say the Bills are rolling again, but look deeper and you’ll see a team that continues to start slow in almost every matchup. They were down 26–21 to Tampa midway through the third quarter last week before Josh Allen went full superhero mode late. That’s been the story all season: Buffalo is +0.7 in first-half scoring margin, but +5.7 in the second half. They’re 3–7 ATS in the first half and 7–3 ATS in the second. They don’t hit their stride until the game becomes unscripted.
And on a short week — traveling, missing weapons, facing an elite defense — that tendency gets magnified.
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Bills vs. Texans Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Bills vs. Texans Odds
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Bills vs. Texans Prediction - Thursday Night Football
Buffalo’s wide receiver room has been absolute chaos. Khalil Shakir is the only consistent presence, and after that it’s a rotating cast of whoever is healthy enough to suit up that week. Curtis Samuel is out. Mecole Hardman is out. Keon Coleman was benched last week. Dalton Kincaid still isn’t back. Josh Allen is making it work, but there’s no continuity. That’s a brutal setup when your opponent ranks first in DVOA vs. the pass and fifth vs. the run.
The Texans defense is legitimately elite — fast, physical, and built to disrupt quarterbacks exactly like Allen. And Will Anderson Jr. plus Azeez Al-Shaair both look fully on track to play. This group doesn’t get blown off the field. Not at home. Not in prime time.
The other half of this matchup is where the real value comes in: Houston should be able to run the ball — and that’s the key to hanging inside a touchdown.
The Bills have the No. 30 run defense in DVOA and allow the most yards after contact per carry in the league. That’s tailor-made for Nick Chubb, who’s slowly ramping back up, and for rookie Woody Marks, who has looked increasingly comfortable. Houston doesn’t need explosive plays — they just need four yards at a time, move the chains, slow the game, and keep Allen standing on the sideline.
And with Davis Mills at quarterback again, that’s exactly the script they’ll lean into. Buffalo is much tougher in a trailing script than they are in a slow, low-possession grinder. And Houston is perfectly suited to force that kind of game.
Let’s also remember: this Texans defense gave Josh Allen one of the worst performances of his career last season. He completed 9-of-30 passes for 4.4 yards per attempt. Yes, Buffalo’s offense has changed since then — but so has the Texans defense, and in all the right ways. They get pressure, they stop the run, and they force you into uncomfortable third downs.
That matters even more tonight because the trend is undeniable: Underdogs of 6–10 points on Thursday Night Football have covered 77.8% of the time since 2022. Short week + home dog with a real defense = money.
Buffalo likely still finds a way late — they always do — but everything about this matchup points to a close game where every possession matters and the backdoor is wide open if needed.
Bills vs. Texans Pick
- 1.5 Unit Pick: Texans +6 (-120) Check out these best odds on BetMGM Sportsbook
Hard to find a better setup for a home dog: elite defense, run-game advantage, Bills slow starts, short week, and a matchup that naturally keeps scoring tight.
Houston keeps this close — and don’t be shocked if this comes down to the final drive.
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