Steelers vs. Bears Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 12
The Pittsburgh Steelers bounced back with a revenge win over the Bengals last week, while the Chicago Bears took sole possession of the NFC North in a shocking turn of events. Which of these division leaders will come out victorious on Sunday afternoon? Let's take a look at this Steelers vs. Bears prediction and best betting pick for Sunday, November 23rd.
OC Staff - November 23, 2025, 10:45 AM EST
5 Minute ReadSteelers vs. Bears Prediction: Can Mason Rudolph Step Up With Aaron Rodgers Out in Chicago?
The NFL Week 11 slate delivers a compelling inter-conference showdown as the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, 4th in conference), riding a single-game win streak, travel to face the high-flying Chicago Bears (7-3, 3rd in conference), who boast three consecutive victories.
With the Bears holding a solid 3-1 home record and the Steelers a respectable 2-2 on the road, this contest is set to be a clash of surging contenders with significant playoff implications.
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Steelers vs. Bears Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Steelers vs. Bears Odds
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Steelers vs. Bears Prediction
The centerpiece of this contest will undoubtedly be Caleb Williams, the Bears' dynamic quarterback, facing his sternest test yet against the Pittsburgh Steelers' elite pass rush, which ranks 3rd in the league in sacks. Historically, Williams has shown vulnerability against top-tier pass defenses, averaging a modest 167.0 passing yards per game and a sub-par 81.1 passer rating in three career starts against Top-10 units, with an even 1:1 TD:INT ratio.
However, Williams' dual-threat capability, averaging 27.9 rushing yards per game and projected for 25.5 this week, offers a crucial counter. His ability to extend plays and gain yards on the ground could neutralize Pittsburgh's relentless pressure, which itself fields an only average run defense (ranked 15th). Despite the formidable challenge, our model sees a substantial gap to exploit, identifying a strong-value opportunity on Caleb Williams to exceed 234.0 passing yards, with a positive Expected Value (EV) of 8.6% at odds of 1.91 (-110). This suggests that even against a dominant pass rush, Williams' sheer volume or ability to make plays will likely push him past his projected passing total.
The Bears' offensive scheme will undoubtedly look to establish the run, leaning on D'Andre Swift, who is projected for 64.5 rushing yards on 13.9 attempts. Pittsburgh's run defense, while not a liability, is only ranked 15th in the league in rush yards per carry allowed, suggesting an exploitable average unit rather than a brick wall. This matchup presents a high-value opportunity for Swift, as our model has identified a significant edge on him surpassing 64.5 rushing yards at 1.91 (-110) odds, boasting a remarkable 10.0% Expected Value. This strong indicator suggests that Chicago will find significant success on the ground, potentially wearing down the Steelers' defense and opening up critical play-action opportunities for Williams.
On the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by Mason Rudolph, appear poised for a conservative offensive approach. Rudolph is projected for a mere 140.0 passing yards, indicating a potential reliance on the run game. However, this strategy faces a fascinating dilemma: while Chicago's run defense is quite poor (ranked 29th), making it theoretically ripe for exploitation, Steelers' running back Jaylen Warren (projected for 59.5 rushing yards) surprisingly has an unfavorable spot, with his "Over" prop showing a negative EV of -4.3%. This suggests the model does not expect Warren to capitalize on the weak run defense to the extent one might assume, perhaps due to game script, offensive line struggles, or the Bears' ability to focus on stopping the run.
Furthermore, the modest value on DK Metcalf's "Under 49.0 receiving yards" prop (1.91 (-110), 2.4% EV) reinforces the narrative of a low-volume passing attack for Pittsburgh. This implies the Steelers may struggle to move the ball consistently through the air, and even on the ground despite the Bears' defensive shortcomings.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this contest will be Caleb Williams' ability to manage Pittsburgh's elite pass rush while exploiting their average run defense with his dual-threat capabilities. If Williams can continue to extend plays and make critical throws, as our model's strong EV on his passing yards suggests, it will not only open up the ground game for D'Andre Swift but also mitigate the Steelers' primary defensive strength, tilting the balance in favor of the surging Chicago Bears.
Steelers vs. Bears Pick
- Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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