Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Sunday, September 13th
The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers begin new coaching eras in a Week 1 matchup that has changed dramatically because of Atlanta's quarterback situation. Cooper Rush is set to start against a Pittsburgh defense built to generate pressure, while Aaron Rodgers begins his final NFL season under Mike McCarthy. Check out this Falcons vs. Steelers prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 13.
Peter Alexis - September 13, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadFalcons vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Steelers Take Advantage of Cooper Rush, Falcons After Tua Ruled Out?
Atlanta visits Acrisure Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff against Pittsburgh on FOX. The Steelers are now 6.5-point home favorites with the total at only 40.5.
Kevin Stefanski makes his Falcons debut, while McCarthy takes over in Pittsburgh with Rodgers at quarterback. The matchup shifted significantly when Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out with an oblique injury, leaving Rush to make his first start in Atlanta's offense.
Falcons vs. Steelers Recent Results
Atlanta went 8-9 last season before turning to Stefanski and reshaping the quarterback room. The Falcons already expected to be without Michael Penix Jr. as he continues his ACL recovery, and losing Tagovailoa for Week 1 forces Rush into a difficult road debut.
Pittsburgh finished 10-7 in 2025 before making a major organizational change, replacing Mike Tomlin with McCarthy and pairing the new coach with Rodgers. The Steelers enter the opener relatively healthy, with Joey Porter Jr. the only player carrying a questionable designation on the final injury report.
Falcons vs. Steelers Head to Head
- September 8, 2024: Pittsburgh Steelers 18, Atlanta Falcons 10
- December 4, 2022: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Atlanta Falcons 16
- October 7, 2018: Pittsburgh Steelers 41, Atlanta Falcons 17
- December 14, 2014: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Atlanta Falcons 20
- September 12, 2010: Pittsburgh Steelers 15, Atlanta Falcons 9
Pittsburgh has won five straight meetings and owns a dominant historical edge in the series. The Steelers are 16-2-1 against Atlanta overall, and the Falcons have frequently struggled to generate enough offense against Pittsburgh's defensive fronts.
Falcons vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 13th, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- How to Watch: FOX
Falcons vs. Steelers Odds
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +6.5, Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
- Total Points: Over 40.5, Under 40.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons +240, Pittsburgh Steelers -298
Click here for the latest Falcons vs. Steelers Odds
Falcons vs. Steelers Line Movement and Betting Splits
This has been one of Sunday's biggest moves. Pittsburgh opened around -3.5 and has climbed to -6.5 as Atlanta's quarterback situation deteriorated, while the total has fallen from roughly 42.5 to 40.5.
The Steelers have 70% of spread bets and 75% of the handle. The more extreme position is the Under, which has attracted 65% of tickets and 91% of the money, showing how strongly the market expects Atlanta's offensive problems to suppress scoring.
Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction
Rush could hardly draw a tougher first assignment. Pittsburgh can create pressure with T.J. Watt and its front without compromising the secondary, which is particularly difficult for a quarterback entering a new offense with limited first-team preparation.
Atlanta still has Bijan Robinson, and the Falcons' best strategy should be keeping the game on schedule through the running game and short passing. The problem is that Pittsburgh knows exactly where the offense is likely to lean and can crowd the line of scrimmage until Rush proves he can consistently beat tighter coverage.
Pittsburgh's offense should not need Rodgers to throw 40 times. McCarthy can build the game around a veteran quarterback, a strong receiving group and a balanced backfield, asking Rodgers to attack favorable matchups rather than force high-risk throws.
Atlanta's pass rush is also diminished entering the opener. That matters against Rodgers because clean pockets allow him to control protections, manipulate safeties and keep Pittsburgh out of the obvious third-and-long situations that could give the Falcons a path to an upset.
The concern with laying 6.5 is the low total. A 20-14 type of game leaves very little margin, and Atlanta can shorten possessions by repeatedly feeding Robinson. Pittsburgh therefore needs its defense to create short fields or force Rush into a mistake.
That is still the more likely game script. The Steelers have the healthier quarterback situation, the stronger pressure unit and home field. If Pittsburgh gets in front, Atlanta is eventually going to have to move away from a conservative Rush game plan.
Falcons vs. Steelers Best Bet
- Pick: Steelers -6 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The original number is long gone, but Atlanta's quarterback downgrade is significant enough to justify the adjustment. Rush is walking into a new offense on the road against one of the league's more disruptive defensive fronts.
Pittsburgh does not need a huge offensive performance to cover. A controlled Rodgers game combined with multiple stalled Atlanta possessions can produce the seven-plus-point margin required.
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