Monday Night Football Best Bets: Top 5 Prop Picks for Broncos vs. Chiefs
The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football to close Week 1 in an AFC West showdown at Arrowhead Stadium. Can Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton and Patrick Mahomes deliver in a matchup featuring both quarterbacks returning from major injuries? Check out these Broncos vs. Chiefs 5 best bets for Monday, September 14.
Peter Alexis - September 14, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadBroncos vs. Chiefs Best Bets: Can Courtland Sutton, Bo Nix Step Up on Monday Night Football?
Denver begins its defense of the AFC West crown after a 14-3 season, while Kansas City is looking for a major rebound after falling to 6-11 and missing the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are slight home favorites for the 8:15 PM ET kickoff, with Mahomes returning from his knee injury and Nix back after the broken ankle that ended his 2025 postseason.
The Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool is finding value across several different Denver usage markets, plus an explosive-play prop for Mahomes. Three of the five selections carry recent hit rates of 70%, while even the two 50% trends come with plus-value projections because of the current thresholds and prices.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, September 14th, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- How to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
- Spread: Denver Broncos +2.5, Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
- Total Points: Over 42.5, Under 42.5
- Moneyline: Denver Broncos +110, Kansas City Chiefs -130
Click here for the latest Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
Broncos vs. Chiefs 5 Best Bets Breakdown
1. RJ Harvey Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 73.39%
- Implied Probability: 53.19%
- EV: 37.97%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Harvey established himself as a legitimate receiving weapon during his rookie season, catching 47 passes for 356 yards and five touchdowns. That works out to nearly 21 receiving yards per game, comfortably above Monday night's 16.5-yard threshold, while he has also cleared the number in seven of his last 10 games.
Denver still has J.K. Dobbins in the backfield and added rookie Jonah Coleman, but Harvey's pass-catching ability gives him a distinct path to touches regardless of the rushing rotation. Screens and checkdowns should also give Nix a way to neutralize Kansas City's pressure, and the model's 73.39% probability creates a major gap over the 53.19% implied probability.
2. Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-115) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 68.92%
- Implied Probability: 53.51%
- EV: 28.81%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Sutton remained one of Denver's most dependable targets last season, finishing with 74 receptions for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged more than four catches per game and reached at least four receptions in seven of his last 10, including exactly four catches in Denver's Christmas Day win at Kansas City.
The addition of Jaylen Waddle gives Nix another high-end receiver, but it should also make it harder for defenses to devote extra coverage toward Sutton. Kansas City's secondary underwent significant offseason turnover and will also be without Chamarri Conner on Monday, leaving Sutton with an appealing four-catch threshold at -115.
3. Bo Nix Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (+110) Check out the best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 59.81%
- Implied Probability: 47.62%
- EV: 25.6%
- Trend: Over in 5 of last 10
Nix logged 83 rushing attempts across 17 regular-season games last year, an average of 4.9 per game that lands almost exactly around this number. He also produced 356 rushing yards and five touchdowns, showing that scrambling and designed quarterback runs remain meaningful parts of his game rather than occasional emergency options.
The ankle injury adds some uncertainty, but Nix returned during the preseason and now enters Week 1 without an injury designation. Kansas City's ability to collapse the pocket could actually create additional scramble opportunities, and only five attempts are needed to cash a plus-money prop that the model gives a 59.81% probability of hitting.
4. Adam Trautman Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-102) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 61.97%
- Implied Probability: 50.51%
- EV: 22.7%
- Trend: Over in 5 of last 10
Trautman does not need sustained volume for this number to hit. He caught 20 passes for 195 yards last season, averaging 9.8 yards per reception, meaning one catch around his 2025 average would already put him over 6.5 receiving yards.
Denver's deeper receiving corps should command most of the defensive attention, which can leave Trautman available underneath or off play action. The recent 5-of-10 trend is less dominant than some of the other picks, but the tiny threshold changes the equation, and the AI projection of 61.97% remains well above the 50.51% probability implied by -102.
5. Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 Longest Completion (-125) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 79.95%
- Implied Probability: 55.56%
- EV: 43.91%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Mahomes needs only one explosive completion to clear this market, and he produced a 61-yard long last season while completing 49 passes of at least 20 yards in just 14 games. He also exceeded 34.5 yards on his longest completion in seven of the final 10 games shown by the tool, giving the recent trend substantial support.
Denver's pass rush presents a difficult opening assignment, especially with Kansas City missing left tackle Josh Simmons, but Mahomes has Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy available after both practiced fully late in the week. Worthy's vertical speed and Rice's ability to create yards after the catch give Mahomes multiple ways to generate one 35-yard gain, while the tool assigns this Over a massive 79.95% probability and 43.91% EV.
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