Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Top 5 Positive EV Bets for Lions vs. Bills
The Detroit Lions visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in a primetime matchup between two of the NFL's most explosive offenses. Can Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir and Detroit's complementary playmakers make an impact in what could become a high-scoring game? Check out these Lions vs. Bills 5 best bets for Thursday, September 17.
Peter Alexis - September 17, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadLions vs. Bills Best Bets: Can Dawson Knox, Isaac TeSlaa Step Up on Thursday Night Football?
Detroit heads to Buffalo for an 8:15 PM ET Thursday Night Football matchup with both offenses capable of forcing aggressive game scripts. Josh Allen gives Buffalo the ability to push the pace quickly, while Detroit has enough offensive firepower to keep the Bills from simply controlling the game from ahead.
The Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool is finding value on both sides of the matchup, ranging from a plus-money Lions moneyline to extremely low usage thresholds for Dawson Knox, Sione Vaki and Isaac TeSlaa. Knox carries the largest EV on the board at 51.14%, while all five selections show a meaningful gap between the tool's AI probability and the market's implied probability.
Lions vs. Bills Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 17th, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, New York
- How to Watch: Prime Video
Lions vs. Bills Odds
- Spread: Detroit Lions +5.5, Buffalo Bills -5.5
- Total Points: Over 54.5, Under 54.5
- Moneyline: Detroit Lions +195, Buffalo Bills -238
Click here for the latest Lions vs. Bills Odds
Lions vs. Bills 5 Best Bets Breakdown
1. Dawson Knox Over 1.5 Receptions (+115) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 70.30%
- Implied Probability: 46.51%
- EV: 51.14%
Knox only needs two catches, making this one of the lowest-volume receiving props available Thursday night. Buffalo has enough weapons that Knox does not need to function as a featured target, and the Over can cash through two simple completions underneath or off play action.
The +115 price is what makes the projection especially attractive. The market is pricing the Over below a 50% implied probability, while the Oddschecker+ model has Knox clearing two receptions 70.30% of the time. That creates the biggest positive-EV edge of any of the five selections.
2. Detroit Lions Moneyline (+195) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 45.00%
- Implied Probability: 33.90%
- EV: 32.75%
Detroit does not need to be considered the more likely winner for +195 to hold value. The market is giving the Lions only a 33.90% implied chance of winning outright, while the model pushes that probability all the way to 45%, creating a substantial difference at nearly 2-to-1 odds.
The clearest Detroit path is controlling possessions offensively and preventing Allen from consistently playing with favorable game script. The Lions have enough skill-position talent to trade scores if necessary, and a competitive game entering the fourth quarter would make +195 considerably more appealing than the market's current probability suggests.
3. Sione Vaki Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-113) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 70.14%
- Implied Probability: 53.05%
- EV: 32.22%
Vaki's workload is secondary to Jahmyr Gibbs, but 7.5 yards is low enough that volume does not need to be significant. Two or three carries could be sufficient, while one productive run immediately puts the Over within striking distance.
The short turnaround also gives Detroit reason to avoid placing every backfield touch on Gibbs if the game allows it. Vaki simply needs enough rotational work to generate eight yards, and the model's 70.14% probability is more than 17 percentage points above the implied probability at -113.
4. Isaac TeSlaa Over 1.5 Receptions (+110) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 60.80%
- Implied Probability: 47.62%
- EV: 27.68%
TeSlaa is another complementary player whose prop requires almost no volume. Two receptions are enough to cash, and Detroit could be pushed toward a more pass-heavy approach if Buffalo's offense starts quickly and forces Jared Goff to keep pace.
There is considerable target competition around TeSlaa, which helps explain the plus-money price, but that does not eliminate his path to two catches across four quarters. The tool places him above 60% to clear the number despite a market price implying less than a 48% chance.
5. Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions (+115) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 57.09%
- Implied Probability: 46.51%
- EV: 22.74%
Shakir requires more volume than the other receiving selections, but his short and intermediate role gives him a realistic route to five catches without needing explosive plays. Detroit has to account for Buffalo's other weapons, leaving Allen with opportunities to work toward Shakir when the defense takes away deeper options.
The plus-money price provides the key edge. A five-reception game only needs to occur 46.51% of the time to justify +115, while the model projects a 57.09% probability. That gap produces 22.74% EV and rounds out a five-play card built largely around modest usage thresholds.
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