Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Sunday, September 20th
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Arrowhead Stadium for Sunday Night Football after Kansas City produced one of Week 1's most complete performances and Indianapolis allowed 41 points to Baltimore. Can Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor keep the Colts on schedule while Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III try to control another game through Kansas City's reshaped offense? Check out this Colts vs. Chiefs prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 20.
Peter Alexis - September 20, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadColts vs. Chiefs Prediction: Can Chiefs Continue Hot Start on Sunday Night Football?
Kansas City hosts Indianapolis at 8:20 PM ET on NBC in the final Sunday game of Week 2. The Chiefs are favored by roughly six points, while the total has been bet down from its opener and sits around 46.5 to 47 depending on the sportsbook.
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 by dominating possession, the running game and third downs. Indianapolis lost 41-23 to Baltimore, but the Colts' offensive output came largely through Taylor rather than an explosive passing attack from Jones.
Colts vs. Chiefs Recent Results
Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Indianapolis opened with an 18-point home loss to Baltimore. Taylor rushed for 98 yards and two touchdowns, but Jones completed 19 of 31 passes for only 166 yards with one touchdown and one interception in his first game since returning from a torn Achilles.
The Colts' bigger concern was defensive, with Baltimore generating 506 total yards. Indianapolis struggled to get aligned properly and repeatedly allowed the Ravens to dictate the game on the ground.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
Kansas City overwhelmed Denver 31-10 in Mahomes' return. Walker was the offensive centerpiece in his Chiefs debut, producing a career-best 191 yards from scrimmage, including 173 rushing yards, while Kansas City's defense held Denver to only 176 total yards and a 2-of-12 conversion rate on third down.
The Chiefs will again be without left tackle Josh Simmons and safety Chamarri Conner. Chris Jones is questionable with a calf injury, although Andy Reid indicated optimism about his availability.
Colts vs. Chiefs Head to Head
- November 23, 2025: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Indianapolis Colts 20
- September 25, 2022: Indianapolis Colts 20, Kansas City Chiefs 17
- October 6, 2019: Indianapolis Colts 19, Kansas City Chiefs 13
- January 12, 2019: Kansas City Chiefs 31, Indianapolis Colts 13
- October 30, 2016: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Indianapolis Colts 14
The three most recent meetings have produced totals of only 43, 37 and 32 points. Last season's game finished 23-20 even though Kansas City generated 494 yards, showing how easily this matchup can become a long-drive, field-position battle rather than a shootout.
Colts vs. Chiefs Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2026
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- How to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
- Spread: Indianapolis Colts +6 (-112), Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 47, Under 47
- Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +220, Kansas City Chiefs -270
Click here for the latest Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
Colts vs. Chiefs Line Movement and Betting Splits
The Chiefs opened closer to -6.5 before settling around -6, while the total has moved from approximately 47.5 down to 46.5 at much of the market. Under 47 is therefore a number worth targeting where it remains available.
Kansas City has attracted heavy side support, with DraftKings splits showing roughly 81% of spread tickets and 83% of the handle on the Chiefs. The total movement is more relevant to this wager, however, as the Under has already been pushed below the original 47.5 despite Indianapolis allowing 41 points last week.
Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction
Kansas City's Week 1 offensive approach is ideal for an Under. Mahomes did not need to throw for 300 yards because Walker repeatedly controlled early downs. A running back producing 173 rushing yards allows Andy Reid to shorten the game without sacrificing offensive efficiency.
That formula should remain attractive against Indianapolis. The Colts allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 144 yards and three touchdowns, giving Kansas City little reason to abandon Walker and put Mahomes into a high-volume passing game.
A productive Chiefs rushing attack can still produce points, but it also removes possessions. Kansas City used long drives to completely control Denver while its defense repeatedly got off the field on third down.
Jones faces a difficult environment on the other side. His first regular-season game back produced only 166 passing yards, and the Colts are clearly more dangerous when Taylor is the centerpiece rather than asking Jones to chase points through 35-plus attempts.
Indianapolis should therefore prioritize avoiding an early deficit. Taylor's workload can shorten the game, protect Jones and keep Mahomes on the sideline. That becomes even more important at Arrowhead, where obvious passing situations create communication and protection problems.
The Chiefs' offense also has a weakness worth considering. Simmons remains out at left tackle, and Mahomes was limited to 184 passing yards against Denver. Kansas City was extremely efficient because of Walker rather than because the passing game immediately returned to its peak form.
Recent head-to-head results fit the same profile. None of the last three meetings reached 44 points, including a 23-20 Chiefs win last November. Indianapolis has repeatedly found ways to turn this matchup into a slower, possession-oriented game.
Colts vs. Chiefs Best Bet
- Best Bet: Under 47 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The market has already moved toward the Under, so the full 47 is preferable to taking 46.5 after the adjustment. Kansas City's Week 1 identity was built around Walker and defense, while Indianapolis is at its best when Taylor prevents Jones from becoming the entire offense.
Both teams can reach the low 20s without threatening this wager. Another matchup resembling last season's 23-20 result provides a clean path beneath 47.
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