Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Sunday, September 20th
The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Foxborough for the Patriots' home opener in a matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye after both offenses played low-scoring games in Week 1. Can Maye overcome the loss of A.J. Brown while Rodgers navigates a New England defense that allowed only 13 points in Seattle? Check out this Steelers vs. Patriots prediction and best bet for Sunday, September 20.
Peter Alexis - September 20, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadSteelers vs. Patriots Prediction: Can Drake Maye, Pats Bounce Back at Home After Tough Ending to Opener?
New England hosts Pittsburgh at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 41.5.
Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13 in Mike McCarthy's debut, while New England surrendered a 10-point second-half advantage in a 13-10 loss at Seattle. The Patriots now return home without Brown, but Pittsburgh is also missing starting receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
Steelers vs. Patriots Recent Results
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Pittsburgh opened the McCarthy-Rodgers era by grinding out a seven-point victory over Atlanta. Pittman contributed three catches for 58 yards but is now out with a foot injury, removing one of Rodgers' primary perimeter options heading into a road matchup against a talented secondary.
New England Patriots (0-1)
New England led Seattle 10-0 before losing 13-10 and has now struggled offensively across a stretch extending back into last postseason. Brown has gone to injured reserve, forcing Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams into larger roles, while TreVeyon Henderson is expected back after practicing fully.
Steelers vs. Patriots Head to Head
- September 21, 2025: Pittsburgh Steelers 21, New England Patriots 14
- December 7, 2023: New England Patriots 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 18
- September 18, 2022: New England Patriots 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 14
- September 8, 2019: New England Patriots 33, Pittsburgh Steelers 3
- December 16, 2018: Pittsburgh Steelers 17, New England Patriots 10
Pittsburgh won 21-14 at Gillette Stadium last season despite being outgained 369-203. New England turned the ball over five times in that game, including twice inside the Pittsburgh 5-yard line, making the final margin much more about giveaways than a decisive Steelers yardage advantage.
Steelers vs. Patriots Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- How to Watch: CBS
Steelers vs. Patriots Odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 (-108), New England Patriots -5.5 (-112)
- Total Points: Over 41.5 (-108), Under 41.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers +190, New England Patriots -230
Click here for the latest Steelers vs. Patriots Odds
Steelers vs. Patriots Line Movement and Betting Splits
New England opened around -4.5 and has moved a full point to -5.5 despite losing in Week 1. The total has fallen from an early 43.5 through 42.5 to 41.5 on the current board, reflecting concerns about both passing attacks.
The spread split is more interesting than the raw move. Early DraftKings numbers had New England receiving only 43% of tickets but 76% of the handle, meaning the average Patriots wager was substantially larger than the average Steelers bet.
Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction
The Patriots offense is the obvious concern when laying 5.5. Brown is out, and Pittsburgh can play two-high zone structures that force Maye to remain patient rather than relying on isolated vertical matchups. New England itself has identified that defensive approach as a problem it needs to solve.
Henderson's expected return could be the answer. New England can use the running game, backs in space and controlled passing concepts to stay out of the exact third-and-long situations where T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Cameron Heyward become most dangerous.
Pittsburgh's offense has its own limitations. Pittman is out, forcing Rodgers to play without one of his more reliable outside targets. At this stage of his career, Rodgers is at his best when the offense remains ahead of schedule and allows him to diagnose matchups rather than consistently escaping pressure.
New England's defense played well enough to win in Seattle. The Patriots allowed only 13 points and held the Seahawks scoreless for much of the afternoon. That performance gives Mike Vrabel a foundation to build around while the offense works through its early-season issues.
Porter's absence also matters on the other side. Pittsburgh is losing its top outside corner against a Patriots receiver room that desperately needs favorable individual matchups. Maye may not have Brown, but the Steelers cannot cover as aggressively without Porter available.
The spread requires New England to create separation, but last year's meeting provides a useful reminder. The Patriots controlled yardage and lost because of five turnovers. A cleaner version of that performance at home can produce a much different final margin.
Steelers vs. Patriots Best Bet
- Best Bet: Patriots -5.5 (-112) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
New England's offense has flaws, but the defense gives the Patriots a strong floor against a Pittsburgh team missing Pittman. Henderson's return should also provide another way to attack a Steelers defense likely to prioritize taking away Maye's deeper throws.
The larger-wager betting profile supports the matchup. New England has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 despite receiving fewer tickets, and a significant improvement in turnover margin from last year's meeting can be enough to turn a close game into a touchdown-plus win.
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