Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Top 5 Positive EV Bets for Colts vs. Chiefs
The Indianapolis Colts visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in a Week 2 matchup that puts several intriguing low-threshold player props in the spotlight. Can Emmett Johnson, Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce take advantage of favorable numbers in the receiving market? Check out these Colts vs. Chiefs 3 best bets for Sunday, September 20.
Peter Alexis - September 20, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadColts vs. Chiefs Best Bets: Can Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce Deliver on Sunday Night Football?
Indianapolis heads to Kansas City for an 8:20 PM ET Sunday Night Football matchup, with the Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool identifying three receiving-related markets as the strongest values. The card includes one extremely low Chiefs running back total along with two different ways to attack the Colts' passing game.
Emmett Johnson carries by far the largest model edge at 69.1% EV, while Alec Pierce brings the strongest established recent trend. Tyler Warren is the contrarian selection of the group, with his recent results working against the Over but the AI model projecting a significant bounce-back opportunity.
Colts vs. Chiefs Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2026
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- How to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
- Spread: Indianapolis Colts +6 (-112), Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 47, Under 47
- Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +220, Kansas City Chiefs -270
Click here for the latest Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
Colts vs. Chiefs 3 Best Bets Breakdown
1. Emmett Johnson Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Check out the best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 88.58%
- Implied Probability: 52.38%
- EV: 69.1%
- Trend: Over in 1 of last 1
Johnson's sample is obviously tiny, but the number is even smaller. He cleared 7.5 receiving yards against Denver in his first game, and this market can realistically be won on a single reception. That makes his role far less important than it would be if the line were sitting closer to 20 or 25 yards.
The model is extremely aggressive here, assigning an 88.58% probability to an outcome priced at only 52.38% implied probability. That creates 69.1% EV, easily the biggest edge of the three selections, and makes the Over appealing even without a long NFL trend to lean on.
2. Tyler Warren Over 16.5 Longest Reception (-110) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 65.21%
- Implied Probability: 52.63%
- EV: 23.9%
- Trend: Over in 3 of last 10
Warren's recent trend is the obvious concern, with the tight end producing a reception longer than 16.5 yards in only three of his last 10 games. This is also a market where one play completely changes the result, however, and Warren does not need a big overall receiving performance to cash.
Indianapolis should have opportunities to push the ball through Warren if Kansas City forces the Colts into a more aggressive passing script. The recent trend keeps this from being as straightforward as the other two picks, but a 65.21% AI probability against 52.63% implied probability creates enough separation to back the model at a manageable 16.5-yard threshold.
3. Alec Pierce Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 64.32%
- Implied Probability: 53.51%
- EV: 20.21%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Pierce brings the best combination of model support and sustained recent production. He has exceeded 41.5 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games and opened the new season by clearing the number against Baltimore, continuing a trend that stretches well beyond one strong performance.
His vertical role also makes 41.5 yards much more manageable than it would be for a receiver dependent entirely on short targets. A couple of chunk gains can put Pierce close to the number quickly, while a potentially pass-heavy Indianapolis game script gives him additional opportunities. The model puts the Over at 64.32%, creating 20.21% EV at -115.
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