Cowboys vs. Colts Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 9 Odds
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Indianapolis looking to rebound from a disappointing overtime defeat against Arizona and strengthen their position in the NFC East playoff race. Can Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb exploit a depleted Colts defense while Daniel Jones attempts to revive an Indianapolis offense coming off a disastrous performance against Jacksonville? Check out this Cowboys vs. Colts prediction and best bet for Sunday, November 8.
Peter Alexis - November 8, 2026, 10:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadCowboys vs. Colts Prediction: Can Dallas Bounce Back Against Jonathan Taylor, Tanking Colts on Sunday?
The Dallas Cowboys (3-5) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-6) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Dallas enters as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 51.5 points. Both teams are looking to recover from disappointing Week 8 performances, with the Cowboys losing 33-30 in overtime against Arizona and Indianapolis suffering a 42-7 defeat against Jacksonville.
Dallas has demonstrated substantial offensive potential behind Prescott, Lamb and George Pickens, but defensive inconsistency has prevented the Cowboys from converting productive performances into victories. Indianapolis faces more significant concerns after struggling throughout its first game without several important veteran contributors. With the Colts dealing with injuries in their secondary and Dallas possessing the more reliable passing attack, the Cowboys have an opportunity to establish control despite playing on the road.
Cowboys vs. Colts Recent Results
Dallas Cowboys (3-5)
The Cowboys suffered a stunning 33-30 overtime defeat against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8, surrendering a two-score advantage late in the contest. Dallas appeared positioned to secure its fourth victory before Arizona changed quarterbacks and generated touchdowns on four consecutive possessions to force overtime. The Cardinals completed the comeback with a field goal, leaving the Cowboys with their fifth loss of the season.
Dallas' defense had performed relatively well during the opening three quarters, generating five sacks and two takeaways. Quinnen Williams recorded two sacks, bringing his season total to five, while Prescott and the offense built a 17-3 halftime advantage. However, the Cowboys struggled to prevent explosive plays during Arizona's comeback and failed to generate enough defensive stops to protect their lead.
The Cowboys previously defeated Philadelphia 38-21 on Monday Night Football after losing 23-13 against Green Bay. Dallas has now scored at least 30 points in four games this season, demonstrating an offensive ceiling considerably higher than its record suggests. However, the defense has remained vulnerable, creating pressure on Prescott to consistently generate substantial scoring production.
Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
Indianapolis suffered its most lopsided defeat of the season with a 42-7 road loss against Jacksonville in Week 8. The Colts trailed 28-0 at halftime, struggled to establish their rushing attack and committed costly turnovers that allowed Jacksonville to create favorable field position. The defeat highlighted significant problems on both sides of the football.
Jones completed 19 of 28 passes for 144 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions before being replaced by Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis managed little offensive production against Jacksonville's aggressive defensive front, while the Jaguars generated 183 rushing yards and repeatedly exploited defensive weaknesses.
The Colts have struggled throughout the season, particularly since significant changes to their offensive and defensive lines. Indianapolis also lost to Minnesota and Tennessee earlier in the campaign, although it previously demonstrated competitive potential against stronger opponents. Shane Steichen has confirmed Jones will remain the starting quarterback, making his ability to avoid turnovers particularly important against Dallas.
Cowboys vs. Colts Head to Head
- December 4, 2022: Cowboys 54, Colts 19
- December 16, 2018: Colts 23, Cowboys 0
- December 21, 2014: Cowboys 42, Colts 7
- December 5, 2010: Cowboys 38, Colts 35 (OT)
- November 19, 2006: Cowboys 21, Colts 14
Dallas has won four of the last five meetings, including a dominant 54-19 victory in December 2022. The Cowboys also defeated Indianapolis 42-7 in 2014, demonstrating their ability to generate substantial offensive production against the Colts in previous matchups.
However, Indianapolis won the most recent meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium, shutting out Dallas 23-0 in December 2018. The historical results have limited predictive value, but the current matchup again features a substantial difference in passing-game production and offensive efficiency.
Cowboys vs. Colts Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- How to Watch: FOX
Cowboys vs. Colts Odds
- Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (-102), Colts +4.5 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 51.5 (-109), Under 51.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -225, Colts +194
Click here for the latest Cowboys vs. Colts Odds
Cowboys vs. Colts Line Movement and Betting Splits
Dallas enters Sunday as a 4.5-point road favorite, reflecting the Cowboys' offensive advantages and Indianapolis' recent struggles. The spread is important because it sits above the field-goal number but below the key number of 7, creating a reasonable opportunity for Dallas to cover with a relatively modest victory.
The total of 51.5 is among the highest of the early slate, reflecting expectations for offensive opportunities against two defenses that have experienced substantial difficulties. Dallas has scored 68 combined points over its last two games, while Indianapolis allowed 42 points against Jacksonville. The higher total also creates an environment in which the favorite has additional opportunities to generate scoring separation.
FairPlay AI projects Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite with a 74% probability of winning, creating approximately three points of theoretical value against the sportsbook's Cowboys -4.5 spread. The model total of 49.5 is two points below the market, indicating somewhat lower scoring expectations but still supporting a productive offensive environment. The stronger model advantage remains on the Cowboys to cover.
Dallas Cowboys Injury Report and Team News
- KaVontae Turpin (WR): Out, ribs
- Malachi Lawrence (OLB): Out, ankle
- George Pickens (WR): Questionable, hamstring
- Jake Ferguson (TE): Questionable, ankle
- Luke Schoonmaker (TE): Questionable, groin
- Jonathan Bullard (DT): Questionable, calf
- Marist Liufau (OLB): Questionable, forearm
- DeMarvion Overshown (LB): Questionable, hamstring/back
- Joey Porter Jr. (CB): Questionable, ankle
- Kenny Clark (DT): No game designation, back
- Caleb Downs (DB): No game designation, concussion/ankle
- Broderick Jones (OT): No game designation, personal
- P.J. Locke (S): No game designation, concussion
- Von Miller (OLB): No game designation, rest
- Drew Shelton (OT): No game designation, hamstring
- Tyler Smith (G): No game designation, ankle
- Dee Winters (LB): No game designation, calf
Dallas enters Sunday with important injury concerns among its offensive playmakers, particularly Pickens and Ferguson. Pickens has been limited throughout the week because of a hamstring issue, while Ferguson returned to limited practice Friday after missing the previous two sessions. Their availability is important because both provide Prescott with reliable targets in situations where defenses concentrate attention on Lamb.
The Cowboys will also be without Turpin, reducing their receiving and return-game explosiveness. Defensively, Overshown and Porter are questionable, while Lawrence has been ruled out. Dallas has struggled to consistently prevent scoring drives this season, and another absence in the secondary could create opportunities for Indianapolis. However, the presence of Williams, Clark and Miller provides enough defensive talent to pressure Jones and challenge the Colts' offensive line.
Indianapolis Colts Injury Report and Team News
- Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB): Out, knee
- Justin Walley (CB): Out, knee
- A.J. Haulcy (S): Out, ankle
- Jalen Travis (OT): Questionable, thumb/hamstring
- Keenan Allen (WR): No game designation, rest
- Andrew Ogletree (TE): No game designation, knee
- Charvarius Ward (CB): No game designation, rest
- Jonathan Taylor (RB): No game designation, rest
- Bryce Boettcher (LB): No game designation, groin
- Anthony Gould (WR): No game designation, concussion
- Grover Stewart (DT): No game designation, rest
Indianapolis enters Sunday's matchup with significant defensive personnel concerns, particularly in the secondary. Walley and Haulcy have been ruled out, reducing the Colts' ability to challenge an explosive Dallas passing attack. Davis-Gaither is also unavailable, weakening the linebacker rotation and potentially creating favorable matchups for Dallas' tight ends and running backs.
The Colts' offensive line has undergone major changes following the departure of Quenton Nelson, while DeForest Buckner's absence from the defensive front has reduced Indianapolis' ability to consistently generate interior disruption. Travis is questionable, creating another concern in pass protection. Taylor remains available and provides the Colts with their strongest offensive weapon, but Indianapolis must improve its blocking and avoid early deficits to consistently involve him.
Cowboys vs. Colts Prediction
Dallas enters Sunday with the clearer offensive advantage, particularly through Prescott and its established receiving corps. The Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in four games this season and demonstrated an ability to generate substantial passing production against vulnerable defenses. Indianapolis' secondary injuries create favorable opportunities for Lamb and potentially Pickens to attack downfield.
Prescott should benefit from facing a Colts defense that struggled significantly against Jacksonville. The Jaguars generated 42 points despite Lawrence attempting only 14 passes, demonstrating how frequently Indianapolis allowed favorable scoring situations. Dallas can challenge the Colts through a more aggressive passing approach, forcing their inexperienced defensive backs to defend multiple receiving options.
Lamb presents the most significant individual matchup problem. His route running, ability to generate yards after the catch and versatility across formations make him difficult to contain without consistent safety help. Indianapolis' injuries at cornerback and safety could force the Colts to use more conservative coverage structures, creating opportunities for Dallas to move the football underneath.
The potential availability of Pickens would further increase Dallas' offensive ceiling. His ability to win contested catches and stretch defenses vertically creates more room for Lamb and the Cowboys' rushing attack. Even if Pickens is limited, Dallas should have enough talent to produce scoring opportunities against a secondary missing important contributors.
Indianapolis' best offensive opportunity comes through Taylor, who remains capable of generating explosive rushing plays. Dallas has struggled to consistently defend the run, and Taylor could help the Colts control possession and prevent Prescott from receiving too many opportunities. However, Indianapolis' offensive-line changes and Jacksonville's success limiting Taylor last week create concerns about whether the Colts can establish that approach.
Jones also faces a difficult assignment against a Dallas defensive front that generated five sacks against Arizona. The Colts' quarterback threw two interceptions against Jacksonville and struggled to consistently identify favorable passing opportunities. If Dallas can create pressure without excessive blitzing, Jones could face additional mistakes and negative plays.
The situational factors also favor Dallas despite the road environment. The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing overtime defeat, but their offensive production remains encouraging. Indianapolis, meanwhile, suffered a 35-point loss and must address both offensive and defensive problems within one week. Dallas has the more reliable quarterback and stronger collection of receiving options.
FairPlay AI projects Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite, creating a three-point difference from the available -4.5 spread. The model's 74% win probability suggests the Cowboys are considerably more likely to control the matchup than the sportsbook number indicates. That projection aligns with Dallas' passing-game advantages and Indianapolis' depleted defensive personnel.
The biggest concern is Dallas' defensive inconsistency, which allowed Arizona to erase a substantial late deficit last weekend. Indianapolis could exploit those vulnerabilities through Taylor and Jones' mobility, particularly if the Cowboys fail to establish a comfortable advantage. Nevertheless, Dallas possesses the stronger offensive structure and enough defensive talent to generate turnovers, creating multiple paths toward a victory by more than four points.
Cowboys vs. Colts Best Bet
- Best Bet: Cowboys -4.5 (-102) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dallas enters Sunday's matchup with significant advantages in quarterback play, receiving talent and overall offensive production. Prescott should be capable of exploiting an Indianapolis secondary missing important contributors, while the Colts' offensive-line changes and recent turnover problems create opportunities for Dallas to generate pressure. The Cowboys' defensive inconsistency is a concern, but Indianapolis has not demonstrated enough offensive efficiency to consistently capitalize.
FairPlay AI projects Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite with a 74% probability of winning, creating approximately three points of theoretical value on the current spread. The Colts deserve some respect at home with Taylor available, but the gap in passing-game production and defensive personnel makes Dallas the stronger side. Cowboys -4.5 (-102) is the preferred selection.
More Football Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
