Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 9 Odds
The Detroit Lions travel to Miami looking to strengthen their position in the NFC playoff race against a Dolphins team that has struggled through the first half of the season. Can Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs capitalize on Miami's defensive weaknesses while Malik Willis attempts to keep the Dolphins competitive at home? Check out this Lions vs. Dolphins prediction and best bet for Sunday, November 8.
Peter Alexis - November 8, 2026, 10:15 AM EST
5 Minute ReadLions vs. Dolphins Prediction: Can Jared Goff, Lions Handle Business in Miami?
The Detroit Lions (5-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Detroit enters as a 6.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 50.5 points. The Lions are coming off an important divisional victory over Minnesota, while Miami suffered its sixth defeat of the season against New England.
Detroit has one of the league's most productive rushing attacks behind Gibbs, while Goff continues to operate an efficient passing game featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Miami has shown offensive improvement since Willis took over at quarterback, but the Dolphins remain inconsistent on both sides of the football. With Detroit's offensive balance and Miami's defensive vulnerabilities, the Lions have an opportunity to establish control despite several significant injuries on defense.
Lions vs. Dolphins Recent Results
Detroit Lions (5-2)
The Lions improved to 5-2 with a 19-15 home victory over the previously undefeated Minnesota Vikings in Week 8. Gibbs delivered an outstanding performance, rushing for 153 yards and a touchdown, including a 30-yard scoring run in the third quarter. His explosiveness helped Detroit overcome an offense that struggled to consistently generate production through the passing game.
Goff finished with 176 passing yards and his first interception of the season but connected with Williams for a decisive 7-yard touchdown with 4:35 remaining. Detroit's defense then forced Minnesota into a three-and-out before the offense controlled the remaining possession. The victory demonstrated the Lions' ability to win a defensive battle rather than relying exclusively on their typically explosive scoring attack.
Detroit previously defeated Green Bay 20-17 and Arizona 45-21, with its only losses coming against Carolina and Buffalo. The Lions have scored at least 26 points in five of their seven games, demonstrating a consistently high offensive ceiling. Their rushing attack remains particularly dangerous, while the defense has shown enough improvement to challenge competitive NFC opponents.
Miami Dolphins (1-6)
Miami suffered a 24-19 home defeat against New England in Week 8, failing to protect a 13-3 halftime advantage. The Dolphins controlled much of the opening half before allowing three consecutive Patriots touchdowns after halftime. Willis attempted to lead a late comeback, but Miami could not overcome New England's second-half offensive production.
Willis completed 21 of 32 passes for 211 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He connected with Malik Washington for a touchdown before halftime and Kevin Coleman Jr. for a 35-yard score late in the fourth quarter. Ollie Gordon II led the rushing attack with 69 yards on 19 carries, while the Dolphins struggled to generate consistent pressure against Drake Maye.
Miami previously secured its only victory of the season with a 28-25 road win over the Jets, following five consecutive losses to open the campaign. The offense has become more productive under Willis, but the Dolphins remain vulnerable defensively and have struggled to consistently prevent explosive scoring plays.
Lions vs. Dolphins Head to Head
- October 30, 2022: Dolphins 31, Lions 27
- October 21, 2018: Lions 32, Dolphins 21
- November 9, 2014: Lions 20, Dolphins 16
- December 26, 2010: Lions 34, Dolphins 27
- November 23, 2006: Dolphins 27, Lions 10
Detroit has won three of the last four meetings, including a 32-21 road victory in October 2018. Miami won the most recent matchup 31-27 in October 2022, overcoming an early deficit in a game that featured substantial offensive production.
Four of the last five meetings have produced at least 36 combined points, although the current personnel and offensive systems differ considerably from previous matchups. Sunday's contest presents an opportunity for Detroit to exploit Miami's defensive weaknesses while attempting to contain Willis' mobility.
Lions vs. Dolphins Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
- How to Watch: CBS
Lions vs. Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Lions -6.5 (-108), Dolphins +6.5 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 50.5 (-105), Under 50.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Lions -310, Dolphins +260
Click here for the latest Lions vs. Dolphins Odds
Lions vs. Dolphins Line Movement and Betting Splits
Detroit is favored by 6.5 points on the road, reflecting the substantial difference between the teams' overall offensive production and defensive reliability. The spread is positioned just below the key number of 7, making the current price more attractive for Lions backers than a full touchdown.
The total of 50.5 reflects expectations for a relatively productive offensive matchup. Detroit has demonstrated the ability to generate substantial yardage through its rushing attack, while Miami's recent offensive improvement creates some potential for the Dolphins to contribute. However, Detroit's defensive injuries also introduce uncertainty regarding the expected scoring environment.
FairPlay AI projects Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite with an 80% probability of winning, creating approximately three points of theoretical value on Lions -6.5. The model total of 49 points is slightly below the sportsbook's 50.5, indicating a more conservative scoring expectation. Nevertheless, the model strongly supports Detroit's ability to create separation against Miami.
Detroit Lions Injury Report and Team News
- Cade Mays (C): Out, ankle
- DJ Wonnum (EDGE): Out, concussion
- Jack Campbell (LB): Out, neck
- D.J. Reed (CB): Out, hip
- Kerby Joseph (S): Out, knee
- Jacob Saylors (RB): Questionable, neck
- Sione Vaki (RB): Questionable, ankle
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): Questionable, ribs
- Brian Branch (DB): No game designation, concussion
- Amen Ogbongbemiga (LB): No game designation, toe
- Rock Ya-Sin (CB): No game designation, cramps
Detroit enters Sunday with several significant defensive injuries, particularly in the secondary. Joseph and Reed have both been ruled out, reducing the Lions' ability to consistently defend explosive passing plays. Campbell is also unavailable after suffering a neck injury against Minnesota, while Wonnum's concussion removes an important contributor from the defensive front. Those absences could create opportunities for Willis and Miami's receiving options.
Offensively, the most important concern involves St. Brown, who is questionable with a rib injury after being limited throughout the week. His availability is significant because he provides Goff with a reliable target in critical passing situations. Mays has also been ruled out, creating some uncertainty along the interior offensive line. Nevertheless, Gibbs, Williams and the remaining offensive contributors provide Detroit with enough talent to sustain a productive attack.
Miami Dolphins Injury Report and Team News
- Kaytron Allen (RB): Questionable, quadriceps
- Jaylen Wright (RB): Questionable, quadriceps
- Malik Herring (EDGE): Questionable, neck
- Tucker Addington (LS): No game designation
- Will Kacmarek (TE): No game designation
- Kadyn Proctor (OL): No game designation
- Chop Robinson (EDGE): No game designation
- Zach Sieler (DL): No game designation
- Michael Taaffe (S): No game designation
- Reese Taylor (CB): No game designation
- Dante Trader Jr. (S): No game designation
- Malik Willis (QB): No game designation
Miami enters Sunday's matchup in relatively good health compared with Detroit, although Allen and Wright are questionable with quadriceps injuries. Their availability could affect the Dolphins' backfield rotation and the amount of rushing responsibility placed on Gordon. Willis carries no game designation, providing stability at quarterback after several productive recent performances.
Defensively, Herring is questionable, potentially reducing Miami's edge-rushing depth against Detroit's offensive line. However, Robinson and Sieler remain available and will be important contributors in attempting to limit Gibbs. Miami must generate consistent pressure and prevent explosive rushing gains to avoid allowing Detroit to control the game.
Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction
Detroit's biggest advantage involves its rushing attack against Miami's defensive front. Gibbs has emerged as one of the NFL's most dangerous offensive players, combining exceptional acceleration with the ability to generate explosive plays from limited blocking opportunities. His 153 rushing yards against Minnesota demonstrated how difficult he is to contain, even against a defense capable of limiting Goff's passing production.
Miami's defense has struggled to consistently control the line of scrimmage and prevent sustained scoring drives. Detroit can use its rushing attack to establish manageable down-and-distance situations, creating opportunities for play-action and intermediate passing concepts. If Gibbs consistently generates positive early-down production, the Lions should be able to control possession and create substantial scoring opportunities.
Goff also presents a significant advantage against Miami's secondary. Although he threw his first interception of the season against Minnesota, his decision-making and accuracy have remained important components of Detroit's offense. The potential availability of St. Brown would strengthen the passing attack, but Williams and LaPorta provide additional options capable of exploiting favorable coverage matchups.
Miami's pass rush will need to generate consistent pressure to disrupt that approach. Robinson and Sieler possess enough talent to challenge Detroit's offensive line, particularly with Mays unavailable. However, the Lions' offensive scheme emphasizes quick passing, motion and rushing balance, making it difficult for opposing defenses to consistently pressure Goff without sacrificing coverage.
The Dolphins' strongest offensive opportunity involves Willis' mobility against Detroit's injured defense. Willis has demonstrated improvement as a passer while retaining the ability to generate rushing yards when protection breaks down. With Campbell unavailable and Detroit missing important secondary contributors, Miami could create explosive plays through designed movement and extended passing situations.
Miami's rushing attack could also play an important role. Gordon has provided productive contributions over the last two games, helping the Dolphins establish offensive balance. Detroit must prevent Miami from sustaining long possessions through the run, particularly because its depleted defensive personnel could struggle to maintain discipline over extended drives.
However, Miami has not demonstrated the consistency required to challenge stronger opponents for four quarters. The Dolphins allowed New England to erase a 10-point halftime deficit last weekend, surrendering three consecutive touchdowns after halftime. Detroit possesses a more explosive rushing attack than New England and should be capable of exploiting similar defensive weaknesses.
FairPlay AI projects Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite with an 80% probability of winning, creating approximately three points of theoretical value against the current -6.5 spread. The model's projected total of 49 points suggests a relatively productive game but does not require Detroit to generate an exceptional offensive performance to cover.
The biggest concern is Detroit's defensive injury situation, which could allow Miami to remain competitive through explosive plays and sustained rushing production. Nevertheless, the Lions possess the more reliable quarterback, significantly stronger rushing attack and a more established offensive system. Those advantages create multiple paths toward a victory by more than a touchdown.
Lions vs. Dolphins Best Bet
- Best Bet: Lions -6.5 (-108) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit enters Sunday's matchup with substantial advantages in offensive balance, rushing production and overall execution. Gibbs should be capable of challenging Miami's defensive front, while Goff has enough receiving talent to exploit the Dolphins' secondary even if St. Brown is limited. Miami has shown improvement under Willis, but its defensive inconsistency remains a significant concern against one of the NFC's more productive offenses.
FairPlay AI projects Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite with an 80% probability of winning, creating approximately three points of value against the current -6.5 spread. The Lions' defensive injuries introduce some risk, particularly against Willis' mobility, but Detroit has the offensive advantages required to establish separation. Lions -6.5 (-108) is the preferred selection.
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