Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

It's Farmers Insurance Open week. The PGA Tour heads out to Torrey Pines for a rare Wednesday-Saturday tournament. Last year, it was Patrick Reed who won the event. However, this year he's +5000 to win it again.

The best part about betting on golf is the long odds you get on some of your favorite guys. So, we enlisted the help of our stable of golf handicappers to help us come up with their favorite Farmers Insurance Open longshot picks.

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Andy Lack, Tom Jacobs and our very own Sam Eaton give us their best longshot pick, and Andy even delivers a pick at +16000 odds that is sure to pad your bankroll.

So, let's take a look at our experts' favorite Farmers Insurance Open longshot picks.

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Farmers Insurance Open Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Matthew Wolff @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6,600)

The missed cut last week doesn't bother me. That's just an accepted part of the Wolff experience and as someone who faded him last week it bothers me even less. Wolff brings his proven win equity and a game that has shown to profile well at major championship venues. While it won't be a major set-up this week, Torrey Pines is just that. I've picked a lane this week that includes betting on Bryson at +2200 and normally when I bet Bryson the signals also lead me to join the Wolff Pack

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Tom Jacobs: Matthew Wolff @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6,600)

While I’ve also picked Lanto Griffin and Mackenzie Hughes in this range, it is Matthew Wolff who clearly has the highest upside of the three, and I’ll chance he can put last week’s disappointment behind him quickly and contend this week. 

He finished T21 here on debut in 2020, as he bettered his opening round of 76 by ten shots to shoot 66 at the North Course on Friday, and on Sunday he shot a cool 69 on the South Course as well. 

Wolff also contended for 54-holes in last year’s U.S. Open, and while I don’t want to put too much stock into that event, given the different setup, he was mightily impressive that week, as it was his first start since the Masters, as he took a break away from the game. 

The list of winners here suggests you have to have major-winning potential, barring the odd name, and Wolff certainly has that upside. 

At the price, I am willing to bet that his perfect skillset comes to the fore here, despite his volatility. I think Bryson will improve on his record here, with his new style of play, and where Bryson succeeds, Wolff tends to follow, so I’ll take the higher price on the latter.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Rick Gehman: Aaron Wise @ +6600 (Bet $100 to win $6,600)

Wise has re-invented himself in the last nine months. He's gone from being a perennial loser with his putter, dropping about 0.50 strokes per round, to being a TOUR average putter. That's a huge improvement considering that he's remained a Top 25 tee-to-green player during that entire stretch. He plugged the one leak in his game and it's starting to bear results -- (7) straight Top 26 finishes with (2) Top 10s.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Joe Idone: Justin Rose @ +7500 (Bet $100 to win $7,500)

Torrey Pines presents one of the more demanding exams that PGA Tour players will face every year. There is a reason the cream typically rises at such a layout, so attempting to find a young longshot player to make his breakthrough performance at Torrey doesn't seem realistic to me. I'd rather bank on a proven player who's taken the test before...and succeeded. The Farmers Insurance Open was the last PGA Tour event that we saw Justin Rose win, and I saw just enough quality shots last week at the Amex to lead me to believe that his swing is in a good place. When he can find a rhythm and tempo, he can be a machine from Tee-To-Green.

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Sam Eaton: Luke List @ +9000 (Bet $100 to win $9,000)

Skills such as driving distance, ball striking and approach shots 200+ all come into play at the Farmers Insurance. Another key asset is putting, which might make my selection of Luke List a little surprising.

Luke List regularly loses shots on the field with the putter, but his performances are marginally better on these surfaces.

List comes into the Farmers Insurance with three top-11 finishes in his last five PGA Tour events and recorded a T10 finish at this event last season.

Over the last 12 months, List ranks 2nd in the field when it comes to Driving Distance, 7th in ball striking and 6th in shots gained on par 5s. He’s well worth risking at 90/1, just pray his putter is working.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Andy Lack: Gary Woodland @ +16000 (Bet $100 to win $16,000)

I’m on the record about a 2022 Gary Woodland resurgence, and we’ve finally reached a course where the former U.S. Open champion has a built-in advantage before anyone tees off. The four-time PGA Tour winner is still plenty long off the tee and an excellent long iron player, both skillsets that matter at Torrey Pines arguably more than any other course on the schedule. This is the perfect time to buy low on this former major champion. 

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)