2024 Bermuda Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lipsky, Snedeker at Port Royal

2024 Bermuda Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Lipsky, Snedeker at Port Royal

The World Wide Technology Championship offered plenty of drama, with Austin Eckroat ending the week with 11 birdies, shooting a final round 63 to win by one stroke.

A weaker field has assembled for this week's Bermuda Championship where testing conditions could bring all sorts of players into the mix, ranging from those looking for their first wins, and wily veterans, who are looking for extra silverware in their twilight years.

There are three players priced at +1800 or shorter, with Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes, and Maverick McNealy leading the way, but will one of this trio come out on top?

Let's look into the Bermuda Championship in more detail to try and ascertain what type of player could come on top here in Bermuda.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Bermuda Championship?

This tournament is a fairly new one and we don't get strokes-gained data, so like last week, we are relying on more traditional stats, but in some ways, I think that cuts out the noise. In truth, most of the winners here have been fairly unpredictable, so we need to keep an open mind.

Here are some stats that we recommend you look at this week.

Greens in Regulation - Hitting greens here has been imperative for most winners here, barring Lucas Herbert, who quite frankly willed his way to a win. The other four winners have ranked 15th or better for Greens in Regulation for the week, and to do so, they have had to hit over 69% of greens. Given the blustery conditions that can take some doing so keep that in mind.

Bermuda Putting - Camilo Villegas, Seamus Power, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay had all won PGA Tour events that featured Bermudagrass greens before winning here, while Lucas Herbert had won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour, which featured hybrid Bermuda. Strong experience putting on this surface could be the difference between winning and losing here.

Scrambling - Despite the scoring being relatively low here, the weather can wreak havoc and greens will be missed, so keeping your scores going by getting up and down when needed is key. Those with the best short game will find that easier, so look for those who have been steady on and around the greens of late.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Bermuda Championship

We have seen five renewals of this relatively new event on the PGA Tour, and we have seen a good number of longshot winners in that time. Here are the odds for each winner of the Bermuda Championship since the inaugural staging in 2019.

2023 - Camilo Villegas +15000

2022 - Seamus Power +2200

2021 - Lucas Herbert +8000

2020 - Brian Gay +20000

2019 - Brendan Todd +10000

The average winning price over the first five Bermuda Championships is +11000 so it's fairly clear that sleepers can prosper at this event. In fact, Seamus Power winning at 22-1 was the anomaly, with every other winner being 80-1 or bigger.

There's no reason to think another longshot couldn't win again at the 2024 Bermuda Championship.

Bermuda Championship Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

Let's see if there are any trends or correlating courses we can spot from the past five years here at the Bermuda Championship.

Betting Trends

Experienced Winners Prosper at this Course - Just like last week, experienced winners have come out on top at the Bermuda Championship. Brendon Todd and Seamus Power were both doubling their PGA Tour win tallies here in Bermuda, and both Brian Gay and Camilo Villegas were winning their fifth PGA Tour titles here. Lucas Herbert won his first PGA Tour event in 2021, but he had won twice on the DP World Tour before winning here and has won another time since this win here as well. This is an event for those already familiar with winning, likely due to the testing weather, and shorter golf course opening it up to a wider range of players.

Course Experience - Brendon Todd won the first renewal of this event, and Lucas Herbert won on debut, but Brian Gay finished 3rd the year before winning here and both Seamus Power and Camilo Villegas had played in three Bermuda Championships before winning their titles. Power has finished 12th and Villegas 34th, so all the winners had already made a cut, and generally impressed here in the past.

Correlating Courses

Coastal courses have provided clues here in the past, with form at the Sony Open, the RSM Classic, and the two events in Mexico worth considering.

• RSM Classic - Brian Gay has won both this and the RSM Classic, and has two more top 4 finishes at the RSM as well. Camilo Villegas has lost in a playoff at the RSM, and Seamus Power finished 5th at the RSM a month after winning here as well. Brendon Todd finished 4th at the RSM two weeks after winning here in 2019.
• Sony Open - Seamus Power finished 3rd at the Sony Open the same year he won here. Brian Gay won here and has finished 5th, 6th, and 10th at the Sony Open. Brendon Todd has a 13th-place finish at the Sony and a win here.
• Mayakoba - Both Brian Gay and Brendon Todd won both here and at El Camaleon while Seamus Power had finished 3rd and 11th at the old Mayaboka event.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Bermuda Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Bermuda Championship - shout out to Garrick Higgo, who unfortunately had to miss out, to avoid a six-pack!

Kevin Yu +4000 (DraftKings)

Kevin Yu broke through with his first win on Tour at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he looked strong when doing it, outlasting Beau Hossler in a playoff. Low scoring was the order of the week there, with three rounds of 66 and a Sunday 67, and now he will look to make it two wins in four starts.

To many, that probably looks too much to ask, but the 26-year-old followed up his win at the Sanderson Farms with a 16th at the ZOZO Championship, where he was 4th going into Sunday. This shows an appetite to keep up his strong form, and this looks like a course where he could win again.

In two visits here to Bermuda, Yu has finished 3rd and 30th, with rounds of 63 and 65 combating more modest rounds 12 months ago. Those two low rounds show his ability to score the low rounds needed to win here, and now he returns to this course as a winner for the first time. That has to count for something, and at 40-1, he looks decent value to do what Nico Echavarria threatened to do last week, and back up a recent win.

Wesley Bryan +7000 (bet365)

Wesley Bryan has stepped up this Fall as he looks to retain a full card by finishing inside the top 125 at the end of this swing.

Bryan is currently ranked 128th in the FedEx Cup, so he's right on the edge of retaining his playing rights, something he will of course be desperate to do.

Beyond just motivation though, Bryan has shown plenty of substance in recent weeks, with three top-21 finishes in four starts this fall. He's also made every cut in this swing, with his 37th at the Sanderson Farms his worst finish so far. Even there, three rounds of 68 or better kept him safely above the cut line and last week's 6th place finish was his best effort since his 2nd at the Corales earlier in the year.

A win in Mexico, 2nd at the Corales, 6th at the Puerto Rico Open, and multiple finishes of T32 or better at the Sony Open, Bryan is at home by the sea.

Bryan missed the cut the first two times he played here, but last year he shot a second-round 64 and weekend rounds of 68 and 67, to combat a terrible opening round of 73.

Leading the field with 9 birdies last Saturday and adding another 6 on Sunday, Bryan showed an ability to go low when confidence was high last week.

Joel Dahmen +7500 (FanDuel)

Dahmen has struggled for a long period of time, and this might be a week too soon, but he is showing signs of playing well again, and this is the type of course that plays to his strengths.

He hasn't played here yet, but looking at his best form on Tour, Dahmen has won at the Corales, finished 3rd, 6th, and 20th at the Mayakoba, and has a 5th at the RSM Classic to his name. 12th at the Sony Open is further evidence that he might like this test, and he fits the mold of a winner here.

A 37-year-old who has already won on the PGA Tour, Dahmen is just like Brendon Todd and Seamus Power, who doubled their win tallies here. He might not be at the same level as either just yet, but it's funny what a win could do for him here. A second win, and people quickly remember what Dahmen has shown in recent years, beyond just starring in Full Swing.

Dahmen ranked inside the top 5 for SG Approach at both the Black Desert and the ZOZO Championship, and if he can find that ball-striking form again, then he can contend in an easier field, and on a suitable course.

David Lipsky +10000 (FanDuel)

David Lipsky has played strong Golf this fall, finishing 2nd at the Procore Championship and 6th last week in Mexico. At the Shriners, he could only finish 41st, but an opening 65 saw in end round 1 in 12th and he backed that up with a 67 on Saturday, so it was another decent week.

12 months ago, Lipsky finished 13th here, with four rounds of 68 or better and I am hoping he can go a touch lower this time around.

No one hit the ball more accurately off the tee last week, and he was solid enough when it comes to hitting greens as well, ranking 32nd in that category.

4th at the Sony Open in 2023, four top 10s across four different tournaments in Mexico, and 7th at the Corales, Lipsky has proved his worth at coastal tracks, and I think it's time he showed that again at a course where his lack of distance has no bearing on his chances.

Brandt Snedeker +22500 (Caesars)

The days of Brandt Snedeker winning the FedEx Cup may well be in the past, but the 43-year-old has shown signs in recent weeks that there might just be some good Golf left in him yet.

The 9-time PGA Tour winner certainly fits in with the likes of Brian Gay and Camilo Villegas, who came here as experienced winners, and you have to think he's still got the ability to win here if they did.

His 12th at the Czech Masters on the DP World Tour started a run of three straight top-25 finishes. 26th at the Procore Championship and 16th at the Sanderson Farms where he shot three rounds of 67 showing his effort at the Czech Masters was more than a one-off, and he's gained strokes with his irons in three straight events now for the first time since 2020.

The veteran ranked 6th for SG Approach at the Czech Masters where he hit over 81% of greens and he's since ranked inside the top 30 in each of his two PGA Tour starts since. This ball-striking return might just be the missing piece to Snedeker returning to the peak of his powers, even if for just one week only.

Snedeker is a former runner-up at the Sony Open back in 2016, has multiple wins at Pebble Beach, and was a fine Open Championship player back in his peak, so he should be very comfortable playing in strong winds that will surely hit this week in Bermuda.