2024 BMW Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Clark, Dunlap at Castle Pines

2024 BMW Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Clark, Dunlap at Castle Pines

Hideki Matsuyama finally won the FedEx St Jude Championship last week, when for a while it looked like he might blow a five-shot lead. He held on though, and gave us another high-class winner in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Generally, the best players do win these events, but there is a surprise every now and then, and we could do with that happening this week, as we look at sleepers and value picks for the BMW Championship.

With just 50 players in the field this week, I have changed the parameters slightly and will be including players that are +3300 and bigger, with the pool of players available at +4000 and bigger reduced significantly this week.

Make no mistake though, we are avoiding the favorites and looking for a player from the "best of the rest" category, as there are three players I think can pull off the win in Colorado.

Let's see if we can crack the code here and see what is required to win at Castle Pines, a course used to see on the PGA Tour, but has been absent for 18 years...

The last player to win a PGA Tour event at Castle Pines was Dean Wilson... Yeah, me neither... So there's plenty to figure out this week.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the BMW Championship, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $200 guaranteed, and claim 3 weeks free NFL Sunday Ticket, via YouTube TV. Get ready for the NFL Season in style, by betting on your favorite PGA Tour player this week.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 BMW Championship?

This is a course we haven't seen since 2006, so there are plenty of unknowns, but there are some clues that we can piece together to work out this puzzle, ahead of the 2024 BMW Championship.

Bentgrass/Poa Putting - First of all, the greens here are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa, so players that putt well on that combined surface or either surface on its own should certainly be considered strongly.

Birdie or Better Percentage - Despite the extraordinary yardage on the scorecard, this won't play anything like the 8,000+ yards being touted, and it instead plays more like a 7,200-yard course, and it's there for the taking. There are talks of the score getting to around -20 if the conditions are right, so we want players who are in form when it comes to making many birdies per round. Saving par isn't going to do it here.

Altitude Form - If you are looking for a tie-breaker between a couple of players, looking at those who have success playing at altitude would be worthwhile. There are calculations to be made by the caddie and player when it comes to figuring out the adjusted yardage on each shot at Castle Pines. Experience in that department alone can really help.

FedEx Cup Playoffs Trends

Here is a trend to consider, which is unique to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and has to be considered.

Current Form/Repeat Winners - Of course, this sounds basic, but repeat performances during the FedEx Cup Playoffs are extremely common. The FedEx Cup Playoffs were first introduced in 2007, and in 11 of those 17 years, there has been a player who has won two FedEx Cup Playoff events in the same year. Even since the FedEx Cup Playoffs were first reduced to three events in 2019, three players (Dustin Johnson 2020, Patrick Cantlay 2021, and Viktor Hovland 2023) have all won twice in three events.

Top 13 Finish FedEx St Jude: In the past 12 years, 9 of the BMW Championship winners had finished T13 or better the week before. Zach Johnson (T27), Keegan Bradley (T49th), and Patrick Cantlay (T57th) are the outliers.

Repeat BMW Championship Contenders: Despite the event moving around, plenty of players have found repeat success in this event, largely due to its point in the schedule and sometimes the similar type of course. Patrick Cantlay is the latest player to double his BMW Championship tally, joining Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods as repeat winners of this event. Cantlay also has a runner-up finish to his name, as does Dustin Johnson. Justin Rose has won this event and been a runner-up, and Paul Casey has two runner-up finishes.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the BMW Championship?

Below are the odds of each of the last 10 winners of the BMW Championship.

2023 - Viktor Hovland (+1800)

2022 - Patrick Cantlay (+1600)

2021 - Patrick Cantlay (+2500)

2020 - Jon Rahm (+1000)

2019 - Justin Thomas (+1600)

2018 - Keegan Bradley (+14000)

2017 - Marc Leishman (+4500)

2016 - Dustin Johnson (+1000)

2015 - Jason Day (+750)

2014 - Billy Horschel (+6600)

Three times in the last 10 years we have had a winner at +3500 and bigger, and that is enough encouragement for me. You will need to find a player who's playing decent enough though. Even Bradley, Cantlay (first time), and Zach Johnson (2013) who played averagely the week before winning, had finished 5th or better within their last five starts.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 BMW Championship

Here are my picks at +3500 and bigger for the 2024 BMW Championship.

Wyndham Clark +3300 (FanDuel)

Wyndham Clark ticks a few boxes this week. First of all, he knows the course. He's from Colorado and he grew up playing both here and at Cherry Hills, another popular course in the state.

Putting aside his familiarity with the course, which in some cases can hinder players who increase their self-expectations, Clark is also in fine form. Either side of a missed cut at the Open Championship, Clark has finished 9th, 10th, 14th, and 7th in four of his last five starts, and he's playing himself into the sort of form that could see him contend again.

A win earlier on in the season at Pebble Beach proves his ability to putt on Poa Annua putting surfaces, and he's gained strokes in five straight events on the greens, suggesting he's back to something close to his best with that club. This has always been a strength of his game, and his knowledge of these greens could be a huge plus this week.

Clark ranked 7th in SG Tee to Green last week, and while he might need to sharpen up on his approach play to come out on top here, this is the perfect course for him to gain an edge in that area.

Billy Horschel +4000 (FanDuel)

Get hot, stay hot is Billy Horschel's motto, especially in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, where he won twice in 2014.

In the past 8 weeks, only Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and now Hideki Matsuyama can boast better form than Billy Horschel, and he will look to keep that running this week.

Horschel finished 10th last week, his third straight top 10, after finishing 2nd at the Open Championship and 7th at the Wyndham Championship, where he was better placed at halfway.

Top 5 in both Approach and Tee to Green over the past 8 weeks, it really is only the most elite players in the game edging him both from a form and consistency perspective, and he tends to compete when in this frame of mind.

The last time the BMW Championship, or indeed any PGA Tour event was held in Colorado, was in 2014, when Cherry Hills hosted the BMW. Horschel was your winner that week and went on to win the Tour Championship as well. Will we see a repeat 10 years later? I will take a punt we do at the odds.

Horschel is already a winner on a Jack Nicklaus course at the Memorial, and he also posted his best finish at the PGA Championship this year, when finishing 8th at the Nicklaus-designed Valhalla.

It aligns nicely for Horschel this week.

Nick Dunlap +7500 (FanDuel)

We've missed the really fancy prices on Nick Dunlap, but I think there is still value in the 75-1, especially considering how he held on last week to finish inside the top 5 last week.

His T5 finish at the FedEx St Jude last week was his sixth top-12 finish of his rookie season, two of which were wins!

After winning the Amex earlier in the season as an amateur, Dunlap swiftly ended his college career early, and it looks like the right decision for the 20-year-old. After initially struggling following his win, Dunlap found form again at the Houston Open where he was 11th and just one shot back going into Sunday.

Since then he's finished T12 at the Memorial Tournament, T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, won the Barracuda Championship, and finished 5th last week. There is plenty of volatility in Dunlap's play and form, but the upside is so big, and he's another player, like Horschel, who has won at Cherry Hills in Colorado.

That was in the 2023 U.S. Amateur and it is crazy to think that a little over a year later, he's on the cusp of making it to the Tour Championship, and seemingly in the mix for a third win in a rookie PGA Tour season.

He's already the first player to win as an Amateur and a Professional in the same season, so what's stopping him from adding more records to his name?

Some may point to his lackluster round yesterday, but he spoke candidly about nerves getting the better of him, as he was desperate to extend his season while in good form, and it's actually mad he was in that position after playing so well and winning twice. Of course, his first win didn't count toward the standings, due to his amateur status, but he's played decently since then as well.

Dunlap has already won the U.S. Amateur and the Barracuda playing at altitude and his win at the Amex makes it three West Coast wins for him already in a short career, so he could really love it here this week.

5th in SG Approach and 6th in SG Tee to Green last week, Dunlap was striping it in Memphis, and I hope he can carry that into this week as well.

All his best finishes this season have been followed by a missed cut, or at least a disappointing effort, but he's playing freely this week, with four rounds guaranteed, and that might be enough for him to keep things rolling here in Colorado.