2024 Olympic Golf Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Noren, Ortiz in Paris

2024 Olympic Golf Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Noren, Ortiz in Paris

We came close to another victory last week, as +7500 Max Greyserman made a real run on the final day, but a birdie at the last was enough to secure victory for Jhonattan Vegas, at the 3M Open.

This week, we have a special event, and no, while there won't be as much excitement surrounding this event, as we see at Golf's four majors, any time a sport is part of the Olympics, it is incredible!

Unlike previous years, where the World No.1 turned down the Olympics (Jason Day 2016, Dustin Johnson 2021), we are seeing Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy tee it up here, as are the rest of the top 7 in the world.

This makes for an exciting event, and while it is hard to see past the American trio of Scheffler, Schauffele, and Morikawa, one of whom will very likely medal, there is certainly some value on the board.

A disclaimer, this week I will be bending the rules slightly, allowing myself to dip into the +3500 range, as there are only 60 players in the field, and therefore only a limited amount of viable winners.

Let's look into what I believe makes up a solid sleeper pick at the 2024 Olympic Games Golf in Paris.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Olympic Golf?

With the Games being held in Paris, there was only one suitable for an event of this magnitude, and that is the 2018 Ryder Cup venue, Le Golf National.

We saw then how important accuracy off the tee was and that will certainly be the case again this week, as it was in Japan in 2021 (2020 Olympics).

Here are my key stats for the 2024 Olympic Golf this week:

Driving Accuracy - Find the fairway and avoid the water. Do those two things at Le Golf National and you stand a chance. Don't, and it's going to be a long week. There is a reason this event favored the Europeans so much in 2018 at the Ryder Cup.

SG Approach - You will need to be dialed in with your irons and wedges here because trying to get up and down around these greens is not for the faint-hearted. Attacking this course can be tough, and you will need to be careful not to miss too many greens, so those who are hitting the ball the best, hopefully from the fairway, are set up for success.

Scrambling - Players will miss greens, no matter how hard they try not to, and for those who can avoid the water, getting up and down is crucial to keeping your score alive here on this golf course. Aside from starting the hole off right with an accurate drive, this is the best way to keep your score on track.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Olympic Golf Event?

So far we have only seen two renewals of Golf at the Olympics, and they were won by Justin Rose (12/1) and Xander Schauffele (9/1), so it's hard to have too much confidence in an outsider.

Rory Sabbatini and C.T. Pan found themselves on the Podium at the 2020 Olympics though, and both gave Xander a run for the Gold, so there is still hope yet.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Olympic Golf in Paris

Here are my picks at +3500 and bigger for the 2024 Olympic Golf this week.

Alex Noren +3500 (Caesars)

it is very likely one of the players at +2000 or shorter are going to win this event, but in the 'best of the rest' tier, I think Alex Noren rates out the best.

The problem with the Alex Noren case this week is it is almost too obvious, and they are normally the letdowns...

Noren won at this golf course in 2018, the year he was looking to qualify for the European Ryder Cup team, which he did. He then proceeded to win 2 of his 3 matches here in the Ryder Cup. His win here was the third top 10 and fifth top 20 he had posted at this course overall, and there is every chance he will post another good week here.

10th at the Scottish Open and 13th at the Open Championship shows what he has done in strong, full-field events, and in a limited field where there are probably at least 30 players of the 60 that can't win, the Swede's stock must be boosted.

Noren has been accurate off the tee in the past two starts and on a course where many players will feel uncomfortable, especially if seeing it for the first time, he should stand out as a safe pair of hands.

Carlos Ortiz +9000 (FanDuel)

Carlos Ortiz has been playing great golf on LIV this season, including a win in Houston, and he is a player I could see performing really strongly in this event.

In addition to his win on LIV, Ortiz also won an International Series event in Oman, and with three more top 10s across two tours in addition to these two wins, he's making an impression in 2024.

We haven't seen Ortiz in the majors this season, so an exemption into those events next year would be absolutely huge, and he impressed for much of this event back in 2021.

Ortiz was in the spot for a medal for the first three rounds in Tokyo, sitting inside the top 3 every round going into Sunday. He blew up on Sunday, suggesting the occasion got the best of him, but I think he can perform better this time around if he finds himself in the same spot.

He might fly under the radar this week being on LIV and with compatriot, Abraham Ancer coming in with the bigger profile, and I don't mind that one bit.

Shubhankar Sharma +30000 (FanDuel)

If anyone is going to play the card of the spoiler like Rory Sabbatini and C.T. Pan threatened to at the 2020 Olympics, then I think Shubhankar Sharma is the right fit!

Sharma will be the lone representative for India in this field, and while his chances of winning might seem slim, a Gold Medal would be absolutely huge for both him and his country.

He's got previous in these sorts of events as well, finishing 8th at last year's Open Championship and 9th in the 2018 WGC Mexico. In addition to his efforts in fields of this quality, Sharma has won twice on the DP World Tour and has experience playing on this course.

Sharma is 2/3 for made cuts at Le Golf National, finishing 27th and 40th in his first two Open de France starts. While that alone isn't enough to like him, couple that with his current form, where he is coming off a top 20 at the Open Championship, and had led the Scottish Open in SG Approach the week before, Sharma looks a solid option.