2024 World Wide Technology Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Kim, Lashley in Mexico

2024 World Wide Technology Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Kim, Lashley in Mexico

The PGA Tour returns after a week off, as a field bereft of any star names, heads to Mexico for the 2024 World Wide Technology Championship.

Despite the very best players opting for a week off, there is still plenty of interest in betting on this WWT Championship, especially with the FedEx Cup Fall Series in mind. Players who finished 51st to 60th in the FedEx Cup Rankings will qualify for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational, and these Signature Events are important to qualify for.

Some of the names currently missing out on those fields include Lucas Glover, ZOZO Championship winner, Nico Echavarria, and the defending champion, Erik van Rooyen. Two of this week's favorites, Beau Hossler and Doug Ghim are also on the outside looking in, so this is an important week.

As ever, we are looking beyond the favorites though, as we pick out our favorite sleepers and value picks for this week's PGA Tour event. That means we are looking at players who are +4000 and bigger, as we look for a big winner before the end of the year.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 World Wide Technology Championship?

This tournament only moved to the El Cardonal course at Diamante last year, so we only have one year of data to go on, but let's see if anything stood out as important from last year's leaderboard.

It is also important to note that there was no strokes gained data for last year's renewal, so we are looking at more traditional stats this week.

Greens in Regulation - Hitting the greens here will be vital. The wide-open fairways are easy to hit, so to differentiate yourself, you are going to have to pound the greens and make some putts. Justin Suh and Ryan Palmer both hit over 90% of the greens last year, finishing 4th and 5th respectively. Clearly, they are not difficult to hit, but if you do miss one, you are going to be losing ground on the field. Every player who finished T5 or better last year ranked inside the top 25 for Greens in Regulation that week.

Paspalum Putting - Matt Kuchar, who finished 2nd narrowly headed the putting average stats last year, averaging 1.52 putts per hole. He finished just ahead of Erik van Rooyen in that category, who went on to win the tournament. Camilo Villegas who finished T2 ranked 4th in this category, and Chesson Hadley who ranked 3rd, finished in 7th. How you put on these Paspalum greens is going to be vital to your chances this week. Look at events like the Mexico Open, Puerto Rico Open, and the Corales Puntacana Championship, for clues on who putts well on these greens. It is also worth looking at past renewals of this event at Mayakoba.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the World Wide Technology Championship?

This is only the second renewal of the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal, but last year's winner, Emiliano Grillo was available at +8000 pre-tournament, so he qualified as a sleeper.

With it being such an open event, with a lack of a true star name at the top of the field, there is every chance the winner comes from +4000 and beyond. This is quite often the case in birdie-fests in general, as the chance for the best players to separate themselves with elite ball-striking closes, and instead comes down to a putting contest.

World Wide Technology Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

Let's see if there are any trends of correlating courses we can spot from last year, despite the limited sample size.

Betting Trends

Experienced Winners Prosper at this Course - Last year, the six players finishing T5 or better featured a host of wily veterans. Erik van Rooyen (1st) and Andrew Putnam (T5) were winning their second PGA Tour event, both of whom had won the Barracuda Championship previously. Matt Kuchar who finished 2nd is a 9-time PGA Tour winner, and the player to finish alongside him, Camilo Villegas has also won 5 times on the PGA Tour (4 times coming into this event). Ryan Palmer who finished T5 with Putnam had also won three times as an individual on the PGA Tour, four times if you include his Zurich Classic win with Jon Rahm.

Correlating Courses

It is hard to draw definitive correlations from one year of data, so I think we should simply look at other PGA Tour courses, that feature Paspalum Greens. These are:

• Puerto Rico Open
• Corales Puntacana Championship
• Mexico Open

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 World Wide Technology Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 World Wide Technology Championship

Michael Kim +5000 (BetMGM)

Michael Kim is quite a volatile golfer, but he has PGA Tour-winning upside, as he showed when winning the 2018 John Deere Classic six years ago.

It's obviously been a lean spell since then, but in 2023 he found some consistency in his game again, and that has continued to a certain extent in 2024. Before finishing 5th last time out at the Shriners, Kim had finished T6 at the American Express, T23 at the Puerto Rico Open, T14 at the Corales, and inside the top 25 in the Myrtle Beach Classic, the RBC Canadian Open, and the Barracuda Championship. This is a solid enough bank of form, and his last showing suggests more contending form could be on the horizon.

Last time out in Vegas, Kim gained in all four strokes-gained categories, and that included ranking 9th in SG Approach and 8th in SG Tee to Green, so his game was in fine shape there. Now he returns to a course where he finished T23 last year and was on track for a far better result.

At this event 12 months ago, Kim sat in 2nd place after round 1 and was still inside the top 10 going into Sunday, but instead of kicking on in contention, he shot a final-round 70 and slipped down the leaderboard.

I am confident that his 5th place finish at the Shriners, where he was ball-striking was on top form, will give him the boost he needs to get himself in contention again at this course.

Joe Highsmith +7000 (Caesars)

I will confess to not knowing a whole lot about Joe Highsmith before today, but his run of form caught my attention, and after a deeper dive into his somewhat short career so far, I like his chances this week.

Highsmith is 24 years old and only turned pro in 2022, but he's already shown a liking for relevant events, plus he's already found his stride on the PGA Tour in general.

He got off to a solid start this year with two top-35 finishes at the Farmers and the American Express, but his first top 10 of his PGA Tour career came at the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished T6 and was the 36-hole leader. This is relevant due to the Paspalum greens, and given he opened with two 65s there to open a 2-shot lead, he showed an appetite for low-scoring as well.

Following his T6 at the Puerto Rico Open, things certainly slowed down for the rookie, but he's come alive again in the Fall Series. T13 at the Procore Championship, T55 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T6 at the Black Desert Championship, and T16 at the Shriners Children's Open, Highsmith has found his groove again in recent weeks and looks set for a good week here.

He was 2nd and two strokers back going into Sunday at the Black Desert Championship, and when you add that to being in contention at the Puerto Rico Open earlier in the year, you suddenly have a young player with a couple of real goes at winning a golf tournament.

Finishes of T4 at the Panama Championship and T12 in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour provide me with further confidence that he will enjoy this sort of test and playing surface.

Nate Lashley +8000 (FanDuel)

Nate Lashley may not be the first player you think of when it comes to picking a PGA Tour winner, but the fact remains that he has indeed won at this level, at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he's won at the Corales when it was on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Lashley lives for these coastal, Paspalum events, having added 4th and 15th place finishes at the Corales to his win, since being on the PGA Tour, as well as 3rd, 7th, and 8th place finishes at the Puerto Rico Open, and 10th and 11th place finishes in Mexico. That 10th came at this course last year, with the 11th coming at the Mexico Open.

On top of loving these sorts of events, he's actually in pretty decent form, making his last four cuts, and finishing 29th and 16th in the past two events. The 29th at the Shriners was driven by strong approach play, and his short game was in good shape at the ZOZO last time out. Combine the two and we have someone who can contend here.

12 months ago, Lashley opened with a 64 to sit 2nd after round 1 and closed with a 66 to finish inside the top 10. This event hasn't gotten any harder in that time, and unlike a lot of players around him in the market, I have some degree of confidence (even if a little misguided) that he can win again.