WM Phoenix Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Theegala, Hoge at TPC Scottsdale

WM Phoenix Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Theegala, Hoge at TPC Scottsdale

After the Pebble Beach Pro-Am was reduced to 54 holes, the PGA Tour now heads for sunnier climates, as the WM Phoenix Open takes place at TPC Scottsdale. This is an event that captures the imagination of all types of golf fans, from casual to hardcore, and this venue is great for drama.

A lot of the top players are making the trip from Pebble to Phoenix this week, although notable absences include Rory McIlroy, who is skipping the event, and Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele who originally committed but pulled out.

There is enough star power at the top of the board though, with two-time defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns all 20-1 and shorter. This means there is still value to be found in this field, and we will try and exploit it with the Phoenix Open preview below.

CLICK HERE to find the best odds for each golfer at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win the WM Phoenix Open?

We are finally back to a single-course event, and this means we only need to break down TPC Scottsdale, which quite frankly is a relief.

SG Approach - This is very much a second-shot course, as the Phoenix Open demands incredible SG Approach performances from a winner. Three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 2, two of them leading the field, and all have ranked inside the top 20 for SG Approach the week they won.

Bermuda Putting - After a spell on Bentgrass and Poa Annua greens in recent weeks, some players will be overjoyed to be back on the Bermuda Grass greens. Look for players who have been hitting the ball well in recent weeks but not scoring, and see if they prefer this putting surface. If they do, it is go time...

SG: Tee to Green - OK, this is cheating slightly, as it's the most obvious correlation when it comes to a winner, but again, like SG Approach, this is purely a ball-striking paradise. The leader in SG Tee to Green has finished inside the top 5 here in four of the last five years, with Collin Morikawa (25th) the exception.

Par 4 Scoring - Four of the last five winners of the WM Phoenix Open have led the field in Par 4 Scoring the week they won. Scottie Scheffler has led this statistic for the last three years, finishing 7th, 1st, and 1st on those weeks. Brooks Koepka got his work done on the Par 5s the year he won.

WM Phoenix Open Betting Trends

Here are some trends that we think could stand up again this year, as we look for another winner of the WM Phoenix Open.

Young Man's Course? - 11 of the last 12 winners of the WM Phoenix Open have been 34 years of age or younger. This is probably a bracket that most events fit in these days, but it is noteworthy. Phil Mickelson was the only player older than 34 to win this in the past 12 years, and he was winning the event for a third time.

Winning Experience Essential - 11 of the last 12 winners had won 2+ in their career already before winning here. Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Stadler, and Kyle Stanley were all winning for the first time on the PGA Tour when winning here, but only Stanley was winning for the first time as a pro.

Course Experience Beneficial - 10 of the last 12 winners had played at TPC Scottsdale 2+ times before winning here. Kyle Stanley and Brooks Koepka both won the event on debut.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the WM Phoenix Open?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of the WM Phoenix Open Since 2012.

2023 - Scottie Scheffler (+1300)

2022 - Scottie Scheffler (+2500)

2021 - Brooks Koepka (+5000)

2020 - Webb Simpson (+1400)

2019 - Rickie Fowler (+2200)

2018 - Gary Woodland (+5000)

2017 - Hideki Matsuyama (+1100)

2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

2015 - Brooks Koepka (+4000)

2014 - Kevin Stadler (+12500)

2013 - Phil Mickelson (+2500)

2012 - Kyle Stanley (+6600)

Sleepers and value picks can win here, but that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Koepka was 50-1 the week he won so technically qualifies, but he's the exception over the past five years.

There is still plenty of hope though, given some of the winning odds we have seen over the years. Gary Woodland and Brooks Koepka were both 50-1 when they won, and then went on to win a major... Can we find a player of that caliber at similar odds this week?

Here are my favorite picks at 40-1 and bigger for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open

With three players 100-1 and bigger again, I am sticking with the four-man approach, as Jason Day came close for us last week at Pebble Beach. We may well have found a winner last week if it went 72 holes, but rather than getting caught up on last week, let's look to the future (which we hope holds a winner).

Sahith Theegala +4000 (BetRivers)

We backed Sahith Theegala at Torrey Pines and things didn't work out, but I don't want to be too quick to abandon a player who's coming to another perfect course for his skill set.

Theegala almost won here two years ago and was unfortunate not to, as a bad bounce saw his ball find the water on 17, but since then he's become a winner on Tour, and he can lean on that experience for another run around here.

After an average week at Torrey Pines, Theegala finished 20th last week and was inside the top 10 after two rounds, so he should be fairly confident coming into the week.

Theegala is priced beyond the elites, which makes sense at this stage of his career, but he certainly fits in that bracket of future major contenders. Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, and Hideki Matsuyama all won a major after winning here, as did Scottie Scheffler, and it looks like a breeding ground for major champions. Theegala is firmly in that category of potential major winners, and I like his chances of proving it here.

At +4000 I will take a shot on the upside of Sahith Theegala.

Tom Hoge +12500 (Caesars Sportsbook)

I was really close to putting Hideki Matsuyama in this second spot, but I can't put him ahead of Tom Hoge, and I want to take a couple of shots further down the board this week.

Hoge is back to his brilliant best with his irons, ranking inside the top 8 for SG Approach three times already in 2024, including last week. Despite a lack of distance, Hoge has also been inside the top 20 for SG Tee to Green in two of the last three weeks, so he's hitting the ball well.

He has missed three cuts here, but when he does make the weekend, Hoge has generally impressed, finishing 43rd, 25th, and 14th, getting better as the years go on. That is good to see, as it suggests Hoge is finding a way to score around here, and now a winner, I suspect he could contend here again.

When making the cut for the first time, Hoge was inside the top 12 for the first three rounds, before finishing 43rd, and then he finished 25th a year later, where he again went into Sunday in a good position, this time, in 11th. Two years ago, Hoge finished 14th here, a week after picking up his maiden win at Pebble Beach, and I think he can build on last week's performance this time around as well.

Hoge's average score on courses featuring Bermudagrass greens is 69.62, making it his favorite surface.

At 125-1, I will take a shot on one of the best iron players in the field right now, and a player who knows how to win now, and can return to a course he's played well at multiple times, to pick up his second title.

Kurt Kitayama +10000 (BetMGM)

I can't resist another shot at Kurt Kitayama this week. I was all in on Kurt last week, and maybe that was a mistake but he prefers Bermuda greens, and I am hoping like Hoge, that could be the difference between him contending and not this week.

Sure, Kitayama finished 39th last week, but he hit rounds of 69 and 67, which is a good sign going into this week at TPC Scottsdale. He played better than his finish suggested last week, ranking 19th in SG Approach, while also leading the field in SG Tee to Green, and a repeat of that this week would surely see him in the mix.

Last year, Kitayama finished 23rd here, despite opening with a round of 75, which is a mighty effort. His second-round 67 and final-round 66 were excellent on debut, and I am hoping he builds on that this week, putting in another solid performance.

I love what he's doing in isolated rounds, and if he can put it all together for four rounds, another big week could be on the cards for Kitayama. At these prices, I will take a chance until he finally contends, or he loses form.

Michael Kim +15000 (FanDuel)

Michael Kim returned to form in 2023, and he seems to be carrying that into 2024, with some strong performances to start the year.

He hasn't been able to put it all together for four rounds, but Kim has caught the eye on multiple occasions, and that's enough for me to take a shot on him, at a course where he's performed well in the past.

Kim has endured a volatile career so far, so it is not easy to find a course where he has repeat success, but TPC Scottsdale is one of them, as he's impressed on multiple occasions in the WM Phoenix Open.

You have to get in the weeds a bit to see Kim's form here, as on the face of it, he has finished 45th, 24th, and 58th, but a deeper dive provides encouragement. When he finished 45th on debut, he was 13th at halfway, and a year later he was in contention going into the final round in 3rd place. The occasion got the better of him and he finished 24th, but that was two good showings. A couple of missed cuts and a year off followed, but he then finished 58th, where he opened and closed with a 68. He was 12th after round one last time, and I think his game has improved in enough in recent months to suggest four good rounds are possible.

Kim ended 2023 with a 5th place finish at the Wyndham, an 18th place finish at the Shriners, and a 23rd at the World Wide Technology Championship. When 23rd in Mexico, he was 2nd after round 1 and 9th after round 3, which suggests he's getting used to being back in the mix again.

He has then kicked off 2024 in a similar fashion, opening with a solid week at the Sony Open, before finishing 6th at the American Express, where he was better placed (2nd) after 36 holes. His most recent start came at Torrey Pines, where he was 9th after round 1 and 5th after round 2, before finishing 37th. The signs are there that Kim is working his way back, and I like his odds on this course.

Kim was inside the top 25 in both SG Approach and Tee to Green at Torrey Pines, and that is a good place to be in, as he heads to Phoenix.