Valspar Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Straka, McNealy at Copperhead

Valspar Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Straka, McNealy at Copperhead

We stay in Florida for one more week, as the PGA Tour rolls into Innisbrook and the Copperhead Course for the 2024 Valspar Championship. It is going to be hard to match such an electrifying week at the Players this week, but this course should provide plenty of drama.

We have a decent field this week, despite the very top stars like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy passing up the opportunity to play. Last week's runner-up, Xander Schauffele is joined by Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and another one of last week's runners-up, Brian Harman, making for a strong top of the market. Add in Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, and Tony Finau, and it is easy to see why we are getting some value this week.

Schauffele doesn't strike the same fear into a field that Scheffler does, so he is worth taking on, especially at +800, but who will be the player to top him?

Let's look into a group of players at +4000 and bigger who could make a run at this title, and how they need to go about it.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Valspar Championship, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $200 if your first bet wins. Bet on one of these picks below, and get an additional $200 if your wager wins.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Valspar Championship?

Just like last week, Driver can stay in the bag at times around Copperhead, but that doesn't take away from how hard it is off the tee. This is a strong examination from Tee to Green, but an all-round game is required to win. There is no overpowering this second-shot golf course.

SG Tee to Green - Since 2019, every winner has ranked 5th or better in SG Tee to Green the week they won here. There is no real path to success outside of hitting the ball brilliantly all week, as Copperhead makes you stand up and hit the perfect shot over and over again. Relentless in its test, Valspar provides a tough test of golf.

Par 5 Scoring - Sam Burns won at -17 in both 2021 and 2022, shooting -15 and -10 respectively on the Par 5s in those years. Paul Casey won at -8 in 2019 but was a mammoth -15 on the Par 5s that week and Taylor Moore was -7 on the Par 5s when winning at -10 last year as well, so it is clear you need to take advantage of these holes, to build a good enough score to win.

Bermuda Putting - If Sam Burns has won somewhere twice, ranking 8th and 3rd in SG Putting, it is likely going to be a Bermuda-green golf course. That is the case here at the Copperhead Course, and for those that have specialized in Bermuda putting over the years, this is a welcome return to that putting surface, after last week's Poa.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Valspar Championship?

Here are all the winners of the Valspar Championship since 2011, to give you an idea of what odds range we could look at for a winner this week.

2023 - Taylor Moore (+5000)

2022 - Sam Burns (+2000)

2021 - Sam Burns (+7000)

2019 - Paul Casey (+2500)

2018 - Paul Casey (+2500)

2017 - Adam Hadwin (+12500)

2016 - Charl Schwartzel (+3300)

2015 - Jordan Spieth (+1600)

2014 - John Senden (+12500)

2013 - Kevin Streeelman (+20000)

2012 - Luke Donald (+1100)

2011 - Gary Woodland (+10000)

6 of the last 12 winners of this event would have qualified as a Sleeper and Value Pick, including last year's champion, Taylor Moore.

Valspar Championship Betting Trends

Looking at the last 11 years of the Vaslpar Championship, we can identify some strong trends when looking for a winner. Here are the most interesting pointers.

Course Form Key - 7 of the last 12 winners had finished 12th or better at this course before winning. Taylor Moore and Charl Schwartzel both won here after missing the cut on debut, while Gary Woodland remains the only player to win on his inaugural start here.

Previous Career Wins - This has historically been a great event for players to break through and pick up their first PGA Tour win, but 11 of the last 12 winners had already won at some level before winning here. 5 of the last 12 winners here were picking up their first PGA Tour win.

Top 10 on the Season? - 11 of the last 12 winners had posted a top 10 finish on the season before winning here, and 8 of the 12 had 2+ top 10s before winning here.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Valspar Championship

Here are my four picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

Note: Nick Taylor is +3500 so just misses out in this article, but I like his chances of contending this week at the Valspar.

Sepp Straka +6000 (bet365)

Sepp Straka has shown some signs of life in 2024, despite not being able to put four rounds together, and it is this course where he can come to the fore.

Straka ranked inside the top 16 for both Approach and Tee to Green last week, and he will need that ball striking if he is to be successful at the Copperhead Course.

The Austrian opened with a 66 on his one and only start here, which meant he led after round 1, and a 3rd round 69 shows that was more than just a one-off. He did couple those two rounds with a pair of 76s on either side, but he's a two-time winner of the PGA Tour since, and a two-time playoff loser. All this to say he is better prepared to take advantage of that promising round this time around.

He kicked off the year with a 12th-place finish and added a 16th last time out, and he's looking to build on that on a true ball strikers paradise.

Maverick McNealy +6600 (BetRivers)

Maverick McNealy struggled with injury for much of 2023, but since returning, he's been working his way back to form, and 2024 has looked pretty good for the 28-year-old, who seemingly has a lot of improvement ahead of him.

2nd at the Lecom Suncoast Classic, 9th at the Players Championship, and 11th at the Honda Classic, McNealy has impressed in Florida over the years, and that extended to his debut performance here.

A year ago, McNealy played this course for the first time, and he opened with a 67. That was one shot shy of the lowest round of the day, and on Sunday he posted a round of 70, which only four people could better. Back-to-back 74s on Friday and Saturday meant he could only finish 36th, but the signs were there, and he can build on that this week.

McNealy is yet to find his best approach play this season, but if he can start hitting some better quality irons, watch out, as this former top prospect is showing some form again.

6th in Phoenix, where he was better placed after rounds 1 and 2, and 13th in Mexico where he played strongly over the weekend, McNealy was finding form, and that was highlighted again when 9th last week at the Players, where he was 4th at the end of Friday and Saturday.

Lucas Glover +7000 (bet365)

Glover is hitting his irons beautifully right now, and that has always been the foundation of his best golf, it looks like he could be close to returning.

Sure, the results don't jump off the page, but he's been finishing inside the top 35 at a consistent rate, and there is clearly more to come.

Glover has gained on approach in all but one event this season, and the one time he didn't, he missed the cut, so it's clearly the foundation of any success this season as well. He comes to this course with a vast amount of experience as well which could be key.

12th after 36 holes last year and 3rd at the same stage three years ago as well, Glover has been in the mix here in recent years at Copperhead, even if he hasn't put all four rounds together here just yet. These two efforts added to the two times he had also been 7th after 36 holes and in the same position after 54 in previous years, so that's four times now he's been inside the top 12 at different stages.

Given the way he is hitting the ball, Glover is ready to get in the mix on this second-shot golf course this week.

Glover is just preferred to Doug Ghim, who looks like a good prospect, but appeals less at +5000 when you can grab a proven winner at +8000.

Victor Perez +10000 (bet365)

Victor Perez is finding form at last, and I think he's ready to compete here given his ball-striking exploits.

The Frenchman ranks 2nd in Ball Striking, 14th in SG Approach, and 20th in SG Tee to Green, so he's clearly in a position to tackle this course.

Perez finished 16th at the Cognizant Classic, where he was 4th after 54 holes, and last time out he finished 3rd in Puerto Rico, where he got better every round.

Last year, he made the cut on his Valspar debut, and while he couldn't quite break 70, he did impress enough for me to take a shot on him this week at triple digits while he's in good ball-striking form.