2024 Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Finau, Riley for a Fast Start

2024 Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Finau, Riley for a Fast Start

We are back at Jack's Place for the 2024 Memorial Tournament and we are looking for a group of players who we think can get off to a quick start at Muirfield Village.

With an elite field assembling for this tournament a week ahead of the U.S. Open there is plenty of value about, as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele rightly make up the top of the market.

The good news is, that the favorite rarely comes out on top in the first round leader market, so we have a great opportunity to win big early in the week again, on the PGA Tour.

Collin Morikawa was +2800 in this market when leading here after round 1 in 2021, but every other leader or co-leader after day one has been +3300 or bigger in the first round leader market leading into the event.

Below, we will look at the most recent first round leaders here, when they teed off, what they shot, and how they were priced to shoot the lowest score on Thursday.

Former Memorial Tournament First Round Leaders

Here are the first round leaders for the last five Memorial Tournament renewals. We had a big log jam at the top of the leaderboard in 2022, but otherwise, we have seen an outright leader every other year.

2023 - Davis Riley (1:12 pm, 10th tee) - 67 (+10000)

2022 - Mackenzie Hughes (12:12 pm, 10th tee), K.H. Lee (8:00 am, 1st tee), Luke List (7:48 am, 1st tee), Davis Riley (12:24 pm, 1st tee), Cam Smith (7:48 am, 1st tee), Cam Young (7:00 am, 10th tee) - 67 (Ranging from +3300 to +15000)

2021 - Collin Morikawa (8:44 am 10th tee) - 66 (+2800)

2020 - Tony Finau (12:55 pm 1st tee) - 66 (+6600)

2019 - Ryan Moore (7:31 am 1st tee) - 65 (+10000)

Clearly, a round of 66 is going to put you in the mix, and it has been good enough to lead over the last four years, with Ryan Moore the last player to shoot lower than that in the opening round, back in 2019.

The tournament has got slightly tougher over the past three renewals, with the round one leading score being 66, 67, and 67.

As is often the case, each of the last five years we have seen someone further down the odds board cash a big first round leader ticket. Collin Morikawa was the shortest at 28-1 but Mackenzie Hughes leading in 2022, despite being priced at 150-1, shows what we could potentially look forward to this week.

Players from both the morning and afternoon waves have had success on day one in the past, so I am not too worried about a draw bias at this time. More on that below when it comes to the weather.

First Round Leader Trends at the Memorial Tournament

Here are some trends established over the past five years that you should keep in mind when looking for a first round leader this week.

Former First Round Lead - Every player who has led or co-led at this golf course over the past five years has experience leading after round 1 of a tournament. Davis Riley had only led two Korn Ferry Tour events before leading here in 2022 but added a second FRL at the Sanderson Farms before leading here again in 2023. Every other player had already experienced leading after round 1 of a PGA Tour event, and it is highly likely that will be the case again this year.

Look for a player who has experience on day one. At least on the Korn Ferry Tour or DP World Tour, but ideally already at least once before on the PGA Tour.

Course Start Important - Davis Riley and Cam Young both co-led after day 1 of the 2022 renewal, despite making their debut that week. However, every other leader or co-leader had played here before, and whether they had played well or not here before, it was clearly advantageous to know your way around.

Look for a player who has played this course before. Ideally, you want someone who has played here multiple times and suggested at some point they could go well here. Riley and Young have proven debutants can succeed, but I would still opt for an experienced head.

Weather Forecast for the 2024 Memorial Tournament

Here is the weather forecast in Dublin, Ohio ahead of Thursday's round at the Memorial Tournament.

The winds do pick up in the late afternoon/early evening this week so the latest starters might get the worst of the winds, but I am still comfortable with taken a player at any time at this event.

Who are the Faster Starters on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.83) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Houston Open)
• Collin Morikawa (2nd Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.08) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.08) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship)
• Alex Noren (4th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.15) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)
• Patrick Cantlay (5th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.18) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Amex, Pebble Beach, Genesis)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the 2024 Memorial Tournament?

Over the last five years, the average round 1 leading score has been 66.2 here at the Memorial Tournament, and I think a 66 is the perfect target.

Morikawa is the only player to shoot 66 here in round 1 since the 2021 renovation was completed, but it is still a reasonable target. The course could be fairly soft on Thursday morning, with rain expected on Wednesday evening, so players could come out fast in the morning.

The Favorites in the 2024 Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Memorial Tournament.

• Scottie Scheffler +1200
• Rory McIlroy +1800
• Xander Schauffele +1800
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Viktor Hovland +2500

2024 Memorial Tournament First Round Leader Picks

Here are my four picks in the first round leader market, ahead of this week's Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio.

Tony Finau +4500 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau hasn't been able to piece it all together yet this season, but he came close, finishing T2 at the Houston Open and he's now posted three top 18 finishes in his last four starts.

No one hit their irons better than Finau did at Valhalla during the PGA Championship, and that is a great sign as we have seen plenty of correlation between the leaderboard that week, and past results here.

Then we have to factor in Finau's ability to start fast, not just historically but in recent weeks as well. Finau has held 8 first round leads in his career, all coming on the PGA Tour, one of which came here at the Memorial Tournament in 2020. Two first round leads since then in 2022 have seen him keep his hand in, and now he's overdue another one, after missing out in 2023.

Finau opened with a 65 at the PGA Championship, bettered only by Xander Schauffele, and a week later he was also 2nd after round 1 at Colonial. This means he's been 2nd after round 1 in each of his past two starts, and it's time for him to top the board again.

This looks like the perfect time for him to cash an overdue FRL ticket on Finau at a course he's enjoyed in the past.

Finau will peg it up with Patrick Rodgers for the first two rounds this week, a player he has outscored on 7 of the 10 occasions they've been paired with each other, tying three times as well. The pair will tee off at 11:45 am.

Stephan Jaeger +8000 (BetRivers)

Stephan Jaeger has played great golf in 2024, culminating in a win at the Houston Open, and he's been impressive since.

Three top 21 finishes have followed that win in Houston, including an 18th at the Heritage where he shot two 67s, a 20th at the CJ Cup where he shot two 66s, and a 21st-place finish at the Wells Fargo, where he shot a second round 65.

Seven times in his career, Jaeger has led after round 1 and the most recent of those came at the Valspar Championship last year. That was his second at this level and he can make it a hat-trick here.

I wanted a player who was teeing off early and Jaeger ticks the box as a capable first round leader candidate, who also happens to be setting an early alarm. He is in the second pairing out at 7:50 am.

Austin Eckroat +9000 (BetRivers)

Austin Eckroat is enjoying a breakthrough season in 2024, and with a 17th at the Heritage and an 18th at the PGA Championship following up his win at the Cognizant Classic, I am keen on following the rest of his year.

Eckroat was 3rd after round 1 here last year and finished 30th on the week, so he impressed on his debut. In recent weeks he was 4th after round 1 of the Heritage and 12th after round 1 of the PGA Championship, so he's starting fast in general as well.

He ranks 27th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season and led the RSM Classic after Round 1 at the tail-end of last year, so he's already got previous of leading after Round 1 of the PGA Tour.

Eckroat will tee off at 11:20 am with Thomas Detry and he's a familiar playing partner. Eckroat has already played seven rounds with the Belgian, and while he has lost out in a head-to-head between the two on six of those starts, the one time he did win, was when he opened with a 63 to lead the RSM Classic after round 1!

Davis Riley +10000 (BetMGM)

I am trying not to overthink this one, so I won't spend too much time on it.

Davis Riley co-led here with an opening 67 in 2022, and last year he shot the same score again, this time holding the outright lead on Thursday, meaning he has been the first round leader in both of his starts at The Memorial.

Riley's last start was his win at Colonial, where he was 2nd after round 1 and then led the rest of the way, so he's clearly in form after a tough spell with injuries.

He stayed inside the top 7 for the first three rounds here two years ago, so it wasn't just a flash in the pan.

If there is a downside, it might be his late tee time, but I am happy to overlook that given he's teed off in the afternoon both times he led here so far.

Riley has held five first round leads in his career, including another one on the PGA Tour in addition to his two here, so he likes a fast start.

He will tee it up with Taylor Pendrith who he shot a final round 63 playing with on the Korn Ferry Tour, a favor Pendrith returned in Round 3 of the CJ Cup this year.