US Open Predictions and Picks: Can Scottie Scheffler Find Success at Pinehurst?
Andy Lack previews the upcoming U.S. Open and makes his predictions and picks. The PGA expert also gives his perspective on the odds board and the US Open favorite he's targeting. Let's get into it!
Andy Lack - June 10, 2024, 10:15 AM EDT
15 minU.S. Open Picks and Predictions: Look for Scottie Scheffler to Find Success
The third major of the year is already upon us, as the golf world turns its attention to Pinehurst, North Carolina, for the 124th playing of the U.S. Open. This will be Pinehurst’s first time hosting since 2014, and this week also marks the 25th anniversary of Payne Stewart's iconic victory over Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods at the 1999 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Often referred to as the cradle of American golf, Pinehurst will provide a stark departure from what we saw last month at Valhalla, both in aesthetics and required skill-set.
The Donald Ross design weaves through sandy Carolina soil and pines, featuring zero rough on the property, in exchange for native wire-grass. Pinehurst No. 2 is defined by its devilishly crowned greens, often referred to as "inverted saucers" that repel inaccurate approach shots in all directions. In a sharp delineation from Valhalla and Muirfield Village, Pinehurst's green complexes are surrounded by short grass, allowing multiple different shot options to be deployed.
Martin Kaymer infamously won the 2014 U.S. Open putting from everywhere, in one of the best lag putting displays in major championship history. The question of whether another player can replicate Kaymer’s performance looms large on a golf course that is so conducive to separation, and Scottie Scheffler’s historic run only exacerbates that foreboding sense of possibility. Scheffler enters this week as the overwhelming favorite, but he will bet a strong group of challengers, headlined by U.S. Open favorites Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm (pending injury status), Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg, among others.
U.S. Open DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 13 - 16, 2024
- Where: Pinehurst, NC
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
U.S. Open ODDS
- Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+400), Rory McIlroy (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1200)
Click here for the latest the 2024 U.S. Open odds
U.S. Open Predictions
U.S. Open: Course Preview
Pinehurst No. 2
There have been some notable changes to Pinehurst since the 2014 U.S. Open in terms of agronomy, but no new tees or bunkers have been, nor has there been any re-design or relocation of greens. The 2014 version of Pinehurst was all that players could handle and then some, and there was no necessity to beef the golf course up further. With that being said, players have certainly gotten longer and better since 2014, the maintenance team has added an extra challenge this week. The sandy waste areas will be even more penal in 2024 than they were in 2014, as more wire-grass has been planted over the past year, increasing the likelihood that players who miss the fairway will end up in a perilous position. Native plants such as "pineweed” have been allowed to grow, thus making the adjacent fairway native areas even more precarious than what we saw in 2014. Thus, accuracy off the tee will be even more paramount this year, and while most narrow fairway, thick-rough major championship venues highly accentuate distance over accuracy, Pinehurst No. 2 is far more about positioning and placement off the tee.
Pinehurst also switched their greens to now feature Ultra-dwarf Bermuda grass, with should lead us in the direction of favoring players who raises their baseline on this style of agronomy. The 2014 U.S. Open featured Bent-grass greens, and this change is certainly relevant. Pinehurst is a distinctly unique U.S. Open venue both aesthetically and in practice. It does not feature thick rough and narrow fairways like Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, or the Country Club. Pinehurst, rather, bears more in common with golf courses such as Shinnecock, Los Angeles Country Club, and certainly Augusta National, where the name of the game is long irons and chipping off short grass. Pinehurst accentuates the difference between mediocre and great shots, and instead of a poorly struck iron stopping a few yards off the green in rough, it can roll into bunkers, closely mown areas, or native grasses. This week, I will be primarily be looking for accurate drivers of the ball with above average distance, precise long iron players, and elite chippers of the ball, particularly off tight Bermuda lies.
U.S. Open Key Stats
- Total Driving
- Proximity 175 yards plus
- Scrambling off Short Grass: Bermuda
U.S. Open Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+400) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
What more could possibly be said about Scottie Scheffler? With each growing week, we are running out of accolades and ways to properly contextualize just how special it is what we are witnessing. Golf bettors have found themselves in a precarious spot, as Scheffler is now routinely going off with Tiger Woods like prices, which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for other options.
Betting players at such short odds to win 156 man golf tournaments can be a dangerous game, and not something I feel comfortable advocating for unless I have complete conviction. I do believe that Scottie Scheffler is beatable on certain golf courses that de-emphasize skill, and there are many spots where I will be willing to take him on. Yet at the end of the day, this is largely golf course dependent. Outside of maybe Augusta National, there is not a golf course on Tour that gives Scheffler a better chance of separating than at Pinehurst. Scheffler is the best in the world at three aspects of golf: total driving, long iron play, and chipping. Pinehurst heavily accentuates these three skills more-so than any golf course on Tour.
Players cannot bomb away aimlessly at Pinehurst, as it features a severe missed fairway penalty. Scottie’s combination of length and accuracy is what sets him apart from the other great drivers in the game right now. Iron play is an even stronger skill for Scheffler, and Pinehurst may prove to be the most challenging approach course on Tour. Scheffler significantly raises his baseline on long iron intensive golf courses with firm greens, and he is coming off his best approach performance of the season on a similarly demanding second shot golf course in Muirfield Village. It is not a coincidence that it was so easy for Scheffler to separate from the field with his irons at Jack’s place. Skill is marginalized on weaker setups, skill separates on harder setups.
Finally, Scheffler also possesses the best short game in the world, and Pinehurst features some of the most dramatic, severe, and creativity inducing greenside surrounds that players will face all year. The last time that Scheffler was on such a challenging short game course was Augusta, where he gained 6.5 strokes around the green en route to victory. Point being, it’s incredibly rare that we encounter a golf course that perfectly accentuates three specific skills, and one player is the best in the world at all three. This one is written in stone.
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GOLF ODDS
