Travelers Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Aberg, Finau to Start Fast

Travelers Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Aberg, Finau to Start Fast

It is time for another renewal of the Travelers Championship, and as we look to pick ourselves up from a dramatic U.S. Open, it is time to find a winner in the First Round Leader market this week.

We know the First Round Leader market is incredibly volatile, but the stats are out there to show who should be in the best position to start fast here, and we are keen to exploit them this week.

This has been an event that has yielded incredibly low scores over the years, Jim Furyk shot the lowest PGA Tour round here after all, putting together a score of 58 at TPC River Highlands. 60s and 61s are common here as well, and while it looks like changes have been made to make it tougher this year potentially, we should be aiming for a low-60s round this week.

2024 Travelers Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Let's look at all of the first round leaders here since 2019, to see what score has been shot to lead in round 1 and what time the player(s) teed off.

• 2023 – Denny McCarthy (1:40 pm) - 60
• 2022 - Rory McIlroy (7:45 am), J.T. Poston (12:50 pm) - 62
• 2021 - Kramer Hickok (8:45 am), Satoshi Kodaira (1:00 pm) - 63
• 2020 - Mackenzie Hughes (8:25 am) - 60
• 2019 - Ryan Armour (7:55 am), Bronson Burgoon (8:25 am), K.H. Lee (12:00 pm), Abraham Ancer (12:10 pm), Mackenzie Hughes (12:40 pm), Zack Sucher (2:00 pm) - 64

From 2020 to 2023 every first round leader had started their round from the 10th tee. There won't be any tee bias this week, with every player teeing off from the 1st tee in a reduced field, signature event, but it's worth noting, that we might have to wait for the back nine for fireworks.

Travelers Championship First Round Leader Trends

Former First Round Lead a Huge Pointer: The most surprising inclusion in the list above is Zack Sucher, and even he had held three first round leads in his career before leading here at TPC River Highlands, one of which was on the PGA Tour, the other two on the Korn Ferry. Every other first round leader here since 2019 has led after round 1 on a major tour, with most having at least one first round lead on the PGA Tour.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Travelers Championship

Winds pick up as the day goes on at the Travelers Championship, so the very earliest starters might benefit, but I don't think there's too much to worry about if you do like one of the afternoon starters. Scores can still be made here.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68:00) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Houston Open)
• Collin Morikawa (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.21) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.21) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship)
• Patrick Cantlay (4th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.46) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Amex, Pebble Beach, Genesis)
• Alex Noren (6th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.60) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Travelers Championship?

We have seen the opening day lead range from 60 to 64 here since 2019. Changes to the course this year may toughen it up slightly, demanding slightly more accuracy off the tee, but I still suspect a round of 63 may be needed to lead on Thursday. That should be the target.

The Favorites in the 2024 Travelers Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Travelers Championship.

• Scottie Scheffler +1100
• Xander Schauffele +1600
• Collin Morikawa +2000
• Ludvig Aberg +2200
• Patrick Cantlay +2800

2024 Travelers Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are three picks in the First Round Leader market for this week's Travelers Championship.

Ludvig Aberg +2200 (DraftKings)

Ludvig Aberg continues to impress on the biggest of stages, but he's still very raw. I noted in content this week his ability to bounce back from a triple bogey with a birdie, and it is perhaps this volatility that has enabled fast starts in recent weeks.

Aberg has ended the day in 3rd place by the end of play on Thursday, in each of his past two starts, and this course looks perfect for his skillset. Sure, he's come to the fore in tougher events at the Memorial and the U.S. Open this past fortnight, but I am confident he can go low when the opportunity presents itself.

The Swedish superstar has hit his irons solidly over the past two weeks, and his putting looks good as well, so I am confident he can get it rolling here.

Last year, he opened with a 67 here, but back-to-back 65s followed and that was a good sign on his Travelers Championship debut. He will have to go a couple of shots lower on Thursday to lead after round 1 this week, but I am confident that for at least one round, he can lead the way here.

Concerns over his fitness remain, but a round at a fairly relaxed course should provide Aberg with the freedom he needs to lead after round 1.

He has held one first round lead in his short career so far and that came at the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour last year. It is time to land his first on the PGA Tour.

I like that Aberg is teeing it up with the PGA Tour U Graduate, Michael Thorbjornsen, a pairing he should relish.

Tony Finau +3500 (DraftKings)

Tony Finau hasn't been able to put four rounds together here at TPC River Highlands, but he has flashed low rounds in the past, notably a third-round 65 in 2022 and two 66s last year.

Like Aberg, Finau will have to go a couple of shots lower here this week to contend for the first round lead, but the way he's playing, he has every chance of doing so. A 3rd place finish last week at the U.S. Open was a culmination of really good golf in recent months, and he has twice led the field in SG Approach in his last four starts, ranking 19th and 15th in between.

I can see Finau going lower than ever before here, based on his epic approach play in recent weeks, and his growing confidence around TPC River Highlands. He might also be a player who benefits from the course toughening up, if that is the case, following some course updates.

In his last four events, Finau has found himself 2nd, 2nd, 19th, and 6th at the end of Round 1, so he's due a first round lead.

Finau has held eight first round leads on the PGA Tour, the most recent of which coming at the 2022 Houston Open, so it's time for another. He'll duke it out in the afternoon, paired with Patrick Cantlay two groups before Aberg.

Akshay Bhatia +6600 (BetMGM)

Another player who has started fast in recent weeks is Akshay Bhatia, who was 7th after round 1 of the Memorial and 6th at the end of round 1 of the U.S. Open, and he can continue that form this week.

Bhatia is making his debut this week, but he's a player that has held a first round lead in the past when leading after round 1 of the Texas Open, a tournament he won earlier this year. A second round 64 at the Sony Open is encouraging as well, as that is a course that I think correlates well with TPC River Highlands.

This looks like the type of test Bhatia could enjoy and I am willing to bet he gets off to a fast start here, playing early in the morning with Thomas Detry, another player I considered. These two will tee off in the 3rd group out on Thursday morning.