Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Morikawa, Conners to Start Fast in Paris

Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Conners, Schmid to Start Fast in Paris

People's opinions will differ on the importance of Olympic Golf, and how winning a Gold Medal ranks against majors and other big events like the Players Championship, but one thing is for sure, the fields are getting better!

The top 7 in the Official World Golf Rankings are all playing this week, and this is the first time in the history of the Olympics that the World No.1 Golfer is playing. Will Scottie Scheffler set the pace on day one and challenge the rest of the field to play catch up, or will one of the Europeans more familiar with Le Golf National make a run at it instead?

The First Round Leader market is already notoriously difficult to predict, but factor in an unfamiliar course for many of the players, and a completely different occasion, and picking Thursday's leader at the Olympics provides a fresh challenge.

Hopefully, we are up to the task though, and can pick out four of the most likely candidates to set the pace on day one of the Olympics this year.

In the first two renewals of Olympic Golf, we have seen two players set the pace early and then fall away into 5th and 10th respectively, but will the winner this week get off to the best possible start? Let's look at what might be required to lead after round 1 here at Le Golf National.

2024 Olympic Golf First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First, let's look at who led after round one of the first two Olympic Golf events, what time they teed off, and the score they had to shoot.

• 2020 - Sepp Straka (7:30 am) - 63
• 2016 - Marcus Fraser (8:03 am) - 63

In each of the first two renewals of the Olympic Golf event, the first round leader has had to shoot rounds of 63 to take an outright lead. Fraser led by three in Rio, but Straka had Jazz Janewattananond hot on his heels with a round of 64. These three all teed off early.

Whether an early tee time is important will depend on the weather in Paris this week.

We can also look at the last five first round leaders in the Open de France, a regular DP World Tour event, that has moved around in the schedule over the years but has always been held here at Le Golf National.

Open de France First Round Leaders

• 2023 (September) - Tom Kim (8:20 am) - 64
• 2022 (September) - Rasmus Hojgaard (1:20 pm) - 62
• 2019 (October) - George Coetzee (9:55 am), Ryan Fox (1:50 pm) - 65
• 2018 (July) - Bradley Dredge (2:10 pm) - 67
• 2017 (July) - Paul Waring - (2:10 pm) - 64

It's worth noting, that while there are a couple of outlier years, with Hojgaard's 62 in 2022 and Dredge's 67 in 2018, a 64 has generally been required, with a 65 good enough for a shared lead in 2019. Also intriguing is the fact that both Dredge and Waring teed off at 2:10 pm in the afternoon when leading in 2017 and 2018, the last two years they played this course in tournament conditions in July.

A look at the weather will confirm, but this suggests, especially with a smaller field, that there shouldn't be too much tee-time bias here on Thursday. If conditions are similar all day, split your picks over both waves. If anything, the afternoon starters have had the best of it here at Le Golf National in recent years, so let's see if any wind or other adverse conditions need to be considered.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris

The weather is fairly consistent throughout the day on Thursday, with the strongest gusts actually coming at around 9 am local time, right when the earliest starters are about to tee off.

With the constant wind speed similar throughout the day, and it getting warmer with less cloud cover in the afternoon, it is perhaps no surprise that afternoon starters have done well here. This marginal difference might help some players club down in the afternoon as they can expect more run on the fairways, thus making some of these tee shots a little bit easier. We are splitting hairs though, and once the real strong gusts have left in the morning, we should see fairly consistent conditions.

I would lean toward the later starters getting the better of it, based on the current forecast and the history of first round leaders here in 2017 and 2018, when last played in July. I will still be splitting my picks across the waves though, based on the fact that the last two first round leaders in this event came from the morning wave.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season. Note, that this stat will only cover PGA Tour players, and not those in the field who exclusively play on the DP World Tour, the LIV Tour, or any other worldwide Tour.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 67.94) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Travelers, Houston Open)
• Xander Schauffele (2nd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.12) - Low Opening Round - 62 (PGA Championship
• Collin Morikawa (3rd overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.18) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sentry, Heritage, Scottish Open)
• Alex Noren (4th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.56) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Amex)
• Rory McIlroy (6th overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.93) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Players, U.S. Open, Scottish Open)

Fastest Starters - Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that have found themselves making the fastest starts in recent weeks, based on their 8-week scoring average.

This is based solely on the players' stroke average over the past eight weeks and is not weighted for strength of field, or any other factors, such as average score on the day. This is just to highlight who has proven capable of posting a low number in recent events.

1. Kris Ventura

• Average Score - 66.80
• Lowest Score - 64 (Wichita Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 3rd, 21st, 64th, 26th, 23rd (All on Korn Ferry)

2. Gavin Green

• Average Score - 67.75
• Lowest Score - 65 (Italian Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 4th, 23rd, 4th, 54th (All on DP World Tour)

3. Ludvig Aberg

• Average Score - 68.00
• Lowest Score - 64 (Scottish Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 3rd, 3rd, 18th, 3rd, 82nd

3. Corey Conners

• Average Score - 68.00
• Lowest Score - 65 (Scottish Open)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 3rd, 9th, 18th, 8th, 18th

5. Xander Schauffele

• Average Score - 68.20
• Lowest Score - 65 (Travelers)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 3rd, 16th, 6th, 77th, 4th

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Olympics

In the two renewals of the Olympics, a score of 63 has been required to lead. Averaging out the last five first round leaders on this golf course, we get a score of 64.4. I think a score of 64 is the right target, as it is the most common leading score at Le Golf National over the past five events here, and it's only one shot short of the leads in the past two Olympics. If you shoot 63 here, you are almost certainly going to be the leader, but 64 feels the fairest target.

The Favorites in the 2024 Olympics First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Olympic Golf Competition in Paris.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1000)
• Xander Schauffele (+1200)
• Rory McIlroy (+1400)
• Jon Rahm (+1600)
• Collin Morikawa (+1800)

2024 Olympic Golf First Round Leader Picks

Here are four picks in the Olympic Golf First Round Leader market.

Collin Morikawa +1800 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.40
• Round 1 Scoring Average (Season) - 68.18 (3rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-70-66-65-73
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 3rd, 16th, 13th, 8th, 42nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.07% (15th)

No one should be more motivated to win the Gold Medal this week than Collin Morikawa, who is already three years removed from his second major win and has little to show for another outstanding year on the PGA Tour.

Morikawa should have won The Memorial, but he couldn't outlast Scottie Scheffler there, and that was his fifth of six top 5 finishes this season. 3rd at The Masters, 4th at the PGA Championship, 14th at the U.S. Open, and 16th at the Open Championship, the American has been excellent in the biggest events this year, and now it is time to win one.

This feels very similar to Schaufffele's season in 2021, who had finished 3rd at The Masters and 7th at the U.S Open, but hadn't actually been in contention as much as Morikawa has this year. The latter has a point to prove again, as did Schauffele when winning his Gold Medal, and again this season when he won two majors, so now it is Collin's time to stand up again.

Whether he will get the win or not remains to be seen, but I do trust him to get off to a quick start, as he has done all season. Three times already this season, Morikawa has been within two of the first round lead, and he led on Thursday when winning the ZOZO Championship last October as well.

In total, Morikawa has been within two of the lead 18 times since 2019, converting a third of those (6) into first round leads. He's due a win, and he's also due a fast start, and it is the latter I am backing him to achieve at 18-1.

I like that he has starting his round in the afternoon, based on what we have seen at this course over the years.

Corey Conners +3000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.00
• Round 1 Scoring Average (Season) - 69.05 (10th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-69-67-65-71
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 3rd, 9th, 18th, 8th, 18th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.41% (35th on Tour)

Corey Conners is the prototypical fit for Le Golf National, as he hits the ball straight, and long enough to get around this golf course. He's also a player who has gained strokes on Approach in every individual start since the 2023 Open Championship. A reliable operator, Conners should like this course.

It is the first time he will see Le Golf National, but it is right up his street and in terms of just course fit, he must rate out as one of the best.

So we are confident in his ability to play this golf course, but how about his credentials as a First Round Leader? He has an immense backlog of fast starts in his career, sitting within two of the first round lead 16 times since 2016. He has converted six of those into first round leads, including at the PGA Championship and the Canadian Open, two huge events for him.

In his last five starts, Conners has broken 70 four times in round 1, and he's been inside the top 20 every time. Three times in this span he has found himself on the first page of the leaderboard, sitting inside the top 10, and now he arrives at the ideal golf course.

I think it is all aligning for another fast start for Conners, who will tee off at 9:33 am local time. He will play with two Presidents Cup teammates, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Min Woo Lee.

Matti Schmid +7500 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 68.33
• Round 1 Scoring Average (Season) - 70.68 (123rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-70-68-68-70
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 12th, 4th, 30th, 58th, 32nd, 61st
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.93% (52nd)

This is a bit of a hunch, but I think Matti Schmid is finding something in his game again, and when he does he can be one of the better drivers of the golf ball. He will need to be here, but I take a lot of confidence from his accuracy off the tee in his last two starts, and his strong finish at the 3M.

You are going to get the odd player pop up on day one of this tournament, just like you do any other event, and Schmid is capable of setting the pace, as he's shown already in his young career.

Schmid turned pro after the 2021 Open Championship, and since then he has only held one first round lead, but he's already been in the mix seven times, sitting within two shots of the leader on Thursday. Two of those came this year at the Puerto Rico Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I like his chances of doing the same this week.

He's another who will go out early on Thursday morning, and while the stats don't point towards him necessarily this week, I just have a feeling.

Nicolai Hojgaard (BetMGM)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 69.50
• Round 1 Scoring Average (Season) - 70.50 (103rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-72-71-66-69
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 20th, 50th, 75th, 23rd, 4th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 19.70% (159th)

The season-long stats make grim reading for Nicolai Hojgaard on the PGA Tour, as he has seemingly struggled with the transition to life in America.

With that said, he has found his form of late in some of the bigger events, and more importantly he now returns to familiar surroundings in Europe. The best part is, he is returning to a course he's played a couple of times, starting solidly on both occasions.

His course form officially reads 66th-60th, but that doesn't tell the whole story as the Dane has opened with rounds of 67 and 69 here, to sit 6th and 21st after round 1. Considering I have picked a trio of golfers who have never played here in the past, I thought it was well worth taking someone down the board who had some positive experience here.

A quick scan of his current form shows that Hojgaard has been inside the top 23 on the leaderboard in 3 of his last 5 starts, including 4th last time out at the Open Championship. He's struggling to put four rounds together right now, but he's beginning to show flashes again, and he's shown an ability to post decent rounds here in isolation in the past.

15 times in his career, Hojgaard has found himself within two of the first round lead, including twice this year at the Dubai Desert Classic and The Masters. On three of these fifteen occasions, he has been the first round leader, and I fancy he can make it four here in Paris.

Hojgaard starts later on in the morning and should be comfortable playing with Stephan Jaeger and Thomas Detry on the opening day.