2024 BMW Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
2024 BMW Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
After a thrilling week in Memphis, the top-50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will continue their season this week in Denver, Colorado at the BMW Championship. This event was introduced in 2007 and previously known as the Western Open. Similar to last week, the BMW Championship will not feature a cut and the top-30 in the standings at the end of the tournament will advance to the season finale Tour Championship next week at East Lake. This event has been hosted at a number of different courses, most often in the Midwest/Chicago area, such as Cog Hill, Medinah, Conway Farms, and Olympia Fields, which falls in line with the history of the Western Open. Yet with the Barclays no longer a FedEx Cup playoff event representing the Northeast, the BMW Championship has morphed into a Midwest/Northeast tournament that has also traveled to Maryland and Delaware in the last three years. Castle Pines, just outside of Denver, will make its hosting debut this week, and while played at 6,000 feet above the sea level, the Jack Nicklaus design, measuring 8,130 yards, will be one the longest golf courses in PGA Tour history.
2024 BMW Championship DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: August 22-25, 2024
- Where: Castle Pines, Castle Rock, Colorado
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
2024 BMW Championship ODDS
- Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+350), Xander Schauffele (+600), Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Click here for the latest BMW Championship odds
BMW Championship: Course Preview
Castle Pines
Castle Pines was designed in 1981 by Jack Nicklaus, and commissioned to be the Rocky Mountain version of Augusta National. The course plays at 6,000 feet above sea level, and features 400 feet of elevation change. Once an annual stop on the PGA Tour as the host of the International, we have not seen the golf course host a men’s professional golf event since 2006. There’s little we can gleam from prior International events, as no player in the field that has ever played in that tournament will be competing this week, and it also featured Stableford scoring. Furthermore, the entire course has been renovated since 2006, adding over 500 yards to scorecard, new bunkers, rebuilt tees and greens, and renovated water hazards. With that being said, through various flyovers and videos of the course, we can certainly develop an understanding of how it will play for the best in the world. The most important piece of context we can provide is that despite the gaudy yardage, Castle Pines will not play as remotely long as the scorecard would suggest. This is mainly due to massive elevation changes and the effect that altitude has on the golf ball. We can calculate the distance gain by multiplying elevation (in feet) by .00116. For example, if we are playing at 6,000 feet, the increase is about six to eight percent. If a player normally drives the ball 300 yards at sea level, they will drive it 321 yards at Castle Pines. Thus, the yardage is incredibly misleading. and the golf course will play closer to 7,500 yards. Similarly, players will see a flatter trajectory on longer shots, a more shallow angle of descent and a greater roll. Thus, the ball won’t slice or hook as much. It will be harder to shape shots, and players that like to see their ball curve will have a more challenging time working the ball in both directions. Conversely, high spin players that hit massive hooks or slices (Wyndham Clark, for example) will see their ball travel straighter. There is some real trouble off the fairway at Castle Pines, but it will be a lot easier to drive the ball straight on this golf course due to the flatter trajectory, and the course will play even shorter than the expected yardage due to greater roll-out.
Ultimately, Castle Pines reminds me a lot of Valhalla, the host of the 2024 PGA Championship, on a much more interesting piece of land. It deploys Valhalla style architecture with Augusta National style terrain. Castle Pines is a much better golf course than Valhalla, largely because the land is so extreme and fun, and I think this golf course is going to play beautifully on television and provide an awesome tournament venue. In terms of the difficulty, there’s a fair amount of room off the tee, not dissimilar to Valhalla or Muirfield Village. Yet I’m expecting a decently high missed fairway penalty. The rough is on the thicker side. It’s not Muirfield Village thick, but it’s Valhalla thick, and there are a fair amount of trees bordering the fairways. This is not a bombs away with reckless abandon golf course, and while it is driver heavy and distance is certainly advantageous, total driving is still the name of the game. On paper, Castle Pines is a harder golf course than Valhalla that does require some real thought and creativity, and the greens are lightning quick. With that being said, there is an extra par five here, and Castle Pines does not remotely play as long as the scorecard suggests. Valhalla featured a long iron approach shot on 59% of holes, while Castle Pines will be closer to 45%. My biggest difference between Valhalla and Castle Pines would be shifting some of the emphasis away from pure long irons to wedges too, as well as an added emphasis on par five scoring and fast green putting. -15 to -18 would be my winning score prediction this week. This a harder golf course than Valhalla with more dramatic terrain, but the extra par five should even out scoring.
BMW Championship Key Stats
- Total Driving
- Proximity 200 yards plus
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass
BMW Championship: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg (+2200) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It has always been a matter of if not when with Ludvig Aberg, and this appears the perfect time to buy low. The young Swede is coming off two middling performances at the Olympics and FedEx St. Jude’s, but the ball-striking has remained solid, and his driving looked greatly improved last week. Aberg now travels to a golf course that should heavily accentuate his elite total driving and middle iron play. I also strongly prefer Aberg on brand new golf courses that his peers have little experience on as well, which neutralizes any lack of course knowledge disadvantage. On a level playing field, Aberg remains one of the three to five most talented players in this field, and Castle Pines is the perfect spot for the 25-year-old’s inevitable breakthrough.
Tony Finau +3000 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Tony Finau’s familiarity in altitude should pay dividends this week, and he recently returned from a Utah trip playing golf courses of a similar ilk to Castle Pines. Outside of the obvious altitude familiarity, Finau is a great total driver of the ball and one of the best long iron players in the field. Since one minor misstep at the Open Championship, Finau has finished top-20 in his last two starts, gaining three strokes off the tee last week in Memphis. Even more encouraging is the fact that he has been putting a lot better as well, and now Finau is back on Bent-grass, a far preferred surface for him than Bermuda. Expectations are mile high for Big Tone this week.
GOLF ODDS
Article Author
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.