Procore Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Cole, Spaun in Napa

Procore Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Cole, Spaun in Napa

It might feel like it never went away, but the PGA Tour now returns for the Fall Swing, as a decent field assembles for the 2024 Procore Championship, formerly known as the Fortinet Championship.

Six of the players in the field this week are also playing in next week's Presidents Cup including Team USA duo, Sahith Theegala and Max Homa who have won the past three renewals between them.

This event is a great way to ease back into the PGA Tour schedule, with two of the last five winners getting to -21, including Theegala, who is the defending champion.

With Theegala, Wyndham Clark, and Corey Conners all shorter than +2000 there is plenty of value to be had in this field, and we will try and exploit that here.

In the past two years, we have seen short-priced winners, but this was an event that was previously very kind to sleepers and value bets, and we hope it returns to that form this week.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Procore Championship?

Here are the key stats I will be looking at this week, as we look to identify a winner from further down the odds board. If we are going to take on the tournament favorites this week, we want someone who is a statistical fit and we will provide that profile below.

SG Tee to Green - Four of the last five winners of this tournament have ranked outside the top 10 in SG Approach the week they won, but each of these winners ranked inside the top 7, with four ranking inside the top 2. An all-round game is essential in Napa

Scrambling - Max Homa (2021) is the only player to win here in the past five years, without ranking inside the top 5 for Scrambling.

Poa/Bentgrass Putting - There is a mix of Poa and Bentgrass on these greens, and that will suit players who putt the best when on the West Coast.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Procore Championship?

Below are the odds of each of the last 10 winners of this event.

2023 - Sahith Theegala +1600

2022 - Max Homa +1000

2021 - Max Homa +6000

2020 - Stewart Cink +20000

2019 - Cameron Champ +150000

2018 - Kevin Tway +6600

2017 - Brendan Steele +3300

2016 - Brendan Steele +5000

2015 - Emiliano Grillo +5000

2014 - Sangmoon Bae +150000

We regularly saw bigger-priced winners here in the past, so while Theegala and Homa have killed that trend over the past two years, we should have some confidence that a player from further down the odds board can win.

Procore Championship Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The Procore Championship, which was previously known as the Fortinet Championship, the Safeway Open, and the Frys.com Open has been held at this course since 2014, so we have plenty of knowledge.

Here is what we have learned about this event since it moved to Silverado in 2014.

Course Experience Important - Sangmoon Bae won the first renewal of this event since moving to Silverado, and Emiliano Grillo won this event in his rookie season, but otherwise, every other winner here since, has seen the course at least once before winning. Last year's winner, Theegala had finished 14th, 47th, and 6th here before winning last year, a lot of experience at the course for someone winning his first PGA Tour event. Max Homa hadn't had much success before winning back-to-back here, but he had teed it up here four times.

Current Form Not Necessarily a Factor - A lot of these players have had a few weeks off, and even those who made it to East Lake enjoyed a week off last week. It's not a massive surprise then that we have seen players overcome poor recent form to succeed here, as they have had time to reset. Max Homa (2021), Stewart Cink, and Kevin Tway are all examples of players overcoming average and in some cases, poor incoming form to win here.

Previous Career Win Helpful - Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Tway, and Sahith Theegala have picked up their first PGA Tour win here since 2015, but in Grillo and Tway's case they had both won on the Korn Ferry Tour. Theegala had won the QBE Shootout with Tom Hoge, but that's not really considered a win, and instead, we should class him as a non-winner. That means 7 of the 10 winners here at Silverado had won on the PGA Tour before winning here.

Correlating Course: TPC San Antonio Worth a Look

We have a decade of form to look at, and here are a few results that suggest to us that form at the Valero Texas Open is worth considering.

• Brendan Steele has won the Valero Texas Open and won back-to-back here
• Kevin Tway has won here and finished 3rd at the Valero Texas Open
• Ryan Moore lost in a playoff here against Kevin Tway and has finished 3rd at the Valero Texas Open
• Brandt Snedeker also lost in that same playoff and has multiple top 6 finishes at the Valero Texas Open, including a 4th
• Adam Hadwin lost by a stroke to Cameron Champ here and has finished 4th at the Valero Texas Open
• S.H. Kim was 2nd behind Theegala here last year and has two top 15 finishes at the Valero Texas Open
• Patton Kizzire was 2nd behind Brendan Steele and has a T9 finish at the Valero Texas Open
• Steven Bowditch has won the Valero Texas Open and finished 2nd behind Sang-moon Bae in 2014

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Procore Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Procore Championship.

Eric Cole +4000 (FanDuel)

Eric Cole is in good form, with three top 7 finishes in his past seven starts and I am confident with his 4th place finish here last year, that he could find himself in contention this week.

Cole has ranked inside the top 20 in SG Approach in each of his last three starts and now is the time for him to take his strong iron play to Napa, and get a win in the Fall Season.

A previous career win has been a strong indicator in the past, but I think Cole has the ability to win one, and as we have seen with Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Tway, and Sahith Theegala, you can pick up your first PGA Tour win here, albeit they were all younger than Cole is.

The 36-year-old was born in Palm Springs, California, and in his past seven starts in California, he has finished inside the top 15 four times. Adding to his 4th here are two top 15 finishes at Pebble Beach and a 10th at Riviera, so there's a good track record of him playing well close to home.

J.J Spaun +4000 (BetMGM)

I bet J.J. Spaun a few times in the latter parts of last season, and now I expect him to kick off this new one with a bang.

His first win on the PGA Tour came at the Valero Texas Open, an event I have flagged as a correlation, and that is the first win.

Spaun has also ranked inside the top 12 in SG Approach in each of his past five starts, four of those times, ranking inside the top 10, suggesting he's in great ball-striking form.

On top of that, he has several years of course form under his belt, with 9th and 11th place finishes as the highlights so far. The 9th and 11th have both come in his four most recent starts here, so he is seemingly getting more comfortable, and when you look at his starts here in isolation, he's been inside the top 20 on many occasions and just not finished the week off.

Spaun has made his past six cuts and finished inside the top 10 in three of those, with the best effort coming when 3rd last time out at the Wyndham Championship. This form, coupled with a win at the Valero, and strong course form, suggests now is the time for Spaun to double up!

Matt Kuchar +6000 (FanDuel)

Matt Kuchar's days might be numbered at the very top level, but he's found form of late, finishing 25th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 3rd at the 3M Open, and 12th last time out at the Wyndham Championship where he may well have won, were it not for playing 53 holes in one day.

Kuchar didn't play here when the Tour first stopped in Silverado, but in the three years he has played here, he's finished 36th, 12th, and 7th, getting better every year. Twice he's been inside the top 5 going into Sunday here, and now he's ready to take the next step.

He led the field in both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green at the 3M Open and if he can find similar ball-striking form this week, he can win, at a course that looks perfect for him.

Chan Kim +6000 (BetRivers)

Chan Kim is an 8-time winner on the Japan Golf Tour, with five of those coming from 2019 to 2022. He then took that form right over to the Korn Ferry Tour, where after initially struggling, he went on to win twice in 2023.

In 2024, he finished inside the top 14 seven times, with top 8 finishes at the Corales and the Mexico Championship the two standouts.

Three of those top 14 finishes came in his past five starts, finishing 12th at the John Deere Classic, 10th at the ISCO Championship, and T12 last time out at the Wyndham Championship so he's clearly in very strong form.

He started his season with a T14 finish at the American Express and was 29th at the Barracuda Championship, where he was 3rd in strokeplay scoring going into the weekend. These two starts suggest he likes playing in California, and I am counting on him keeping that up here on his debut at Silverado.