Procore Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Theegala, Lower in Napa

Procore Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Theegala, Lower in Napa

The Procore Championship may have a new name but it is the same ole' event in Napa, and it's one we are more than familiar with. That makes things slightly more predictable, even if the first round leader market is incredibly volatile.

This weather looks fine throughout the day, so that's one less factor to consider and we should have a pick of the whole field here in Napa.

That means that we can pick from a full selection of players in this 144-player field, and that makes this event as exciting as it gets this Fall Season.

Let's look at the past decade of events here at Silverado, formerly known as the Fortinet Championship and the Safeway Open to see if there are any clues about who can lead on Thursday this week.

2024 Procore Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First of all, let's look at the past five first round leaders here, to see what scores were shot to lead on Thursday here, what time of day they were shot, and whether there is a better tee to start from at this course.

• 2023 - Lucas Herbert (7:50 am #1) - 63
• 2022 - Justin Lower (12:10 pm #10) - 63
• 2021 - Chez Reavie (7:33 am #10) - 65
• 2020 - Russell Knox (7:40 am #1) - 63
• 2019 - Adam Scott (8:00 am #10), Andrew Landry (12:25 pm #10) - 65

First, we can see that the low round of the day here has either been 63 or 65 over the past five years, and four of the six players that have led or co-led here in that time have teed off in the morning. This is likely due to the Poa Annua greens getting bumpier in the afternoon.

I don't expect the weather to be a factor, so while the morning starters have impressed here, I will split my picks across the two waves.

It also looks like playing the course backward and starting on #10 could be a benefit, with 4 of the 6 leaders/co-leaders here since 2019, starting their round on the 10th tee.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Procore Championship

Here is the weather forecast for Thursday's round at the 2024 Procore Championship this week.

Who in this Field Started Fastest on Tour This Past Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Beau Hossler (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.90 - Low Opening Round - 60 (Wyndham Championship)
• Ben Silverman (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.90) - Low Opening Round - 62 (Barracuda Championship)
• Justin Lower (9th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.95) - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express and Scottish Open)
• Corey Conners (10th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Scottish Open)
• Hayden Springer (11th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.06 - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express, ISCO Championship)

Fastest Starters - Last 8 Weeks

Here are the five players in the field this week, that hold the lowest round 1 scoring average over the past 8 weeks.

1. Vince Whaley

• Average Score - 65.00
• Lowest Score - 65 (Barracuda Championship, Wyndham Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 4th (round 1 stroke play Barracuda), 9th

2. Beau Hossler

• Average Score - 65.67
• Lowest Score - 60 (Wyndham Championship, 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 50th, 24th, 1st

3. Jacob Bridgeman

• Average Score - 65.67
• Lowest Score - 63 (3M Open 1st Round Leader)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 11th, 1st, 42nd

4. John Keefer

• Average Score - 65.86
• Lowest Score - 63 (Bromant Open, Manitoba Open on Americas Tour, 1st Round Leader Both Times)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 1st, 55th, 31st, 8th, 1st, 15th, 23rd

5. Kelly Kraft

• Average Score - 66.00
• Lowest Score - 64 (Barracuda Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 2nd, 24th

5. Matt Kuchar

• Average Score - 66.00
• Lowest Score - 64 (Wyndham Championship)
• Round 1 Position Last 8 Weeks (Most Recent Last) - 24th, 4th

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Procore Championship?

Three times, a score of 63 has been required to lead here, twice it has been 65. I would err on the side of 63 being required every year here, and that should be the aim.

The Favorites in the 2024 Procore Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Procore Championship

• Sahith Theegala (+3300)
• Wyndham Clark (+3300)
• Corey Conners (+3500)
• Luke Clanton (+4000)
• Min Woo Lee (+4000)

2024 Procore Championship Leader Picks

Here are my picks in the 2024 Procore Championship First Round Leader Market. Let's kick off the new Fall Season with a win!

Sahith Theegala +3300 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 70.60
• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 70.13 (71st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 77-66-70-73-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 120th, 6th, 43rd, 34th, 7th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.73% (25th on the PGA Tour)

Sahith Theegala is the outright favorite this week and also leads the way in the First Round Leader market. The difference is, you have to bet him at +1100 if you want to bet him on the tournament, or you can back him at +3300 to post the lowest round on Thursday.

I know more than anyone it's not as simple as that, but in this specific case, I don't think we should overthink it. Do I think Theegala is three times more likely to win here than he is to post the lowest round on Thursday? I do not, and I do think there is value in betting on him in this market.

Theegala is 4/4 for made cuts here, with finishes of 14th, 47th, 6th and 1st. He has shot a 64 here on two occasions, and one better this week should see him lead after round 1. He starts early and will get things underway on the 10th tee. Both of these things have been advantageous over the past five years.

The Pepperdine product has already led twice after round 1 on the PGA Tour, leading The Sentry earlier this year, and the Sanderson Farms back in 2021. He's also been within two of the first round lead 12 times in his career overall, including those two leads, so he's clearly capable of getting himself in the mix.

Look for Theegala to get his title defense off to the best possible start, similar to how Max Homa opened with a 65 when winning this tournament for the second year in a row.

Rico Hoey +8000 (BetRivers)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 70.00
• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 69.11 (13th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 67-64-72-70-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 47th, 2nd, 117th, 61st, 42nd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.26% (37th)

Rico Hoey may not win this week, he's found that hard in the limited opportunities he's had, but what he does do is start fast, and I am counting on him doing so again this week in Napa.

Hoey has slowed down in recent starts, but before that, he was on fire in the first round, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average, with an average score of 69.11 on day one.

With these fast starts have come plenty of birdies, and he averaged birdie or better 23.26% of the time in 2024, good for 37th on Tour. Considering he is far from an elite player on Tour, that is a great ranking.

One of Hoey's fastest starts in 2024 came in the American Express, another Californian event, and with an 8th place finish at the Barracuda Championship, which is also held in California, he clearly likes this part of the country. The kicker is, that he also finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open, his best finish in the first half of the season, and that's an event that I believe correlates nicely with this one.

Nick Taylor +9000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 69.00
• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 69.48 (27th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-75-70-63-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 8th, 82nd, 29th, 3rd, 18th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 20.32% (140th)

I really like Nick Taylor as a player, and I believe he will be extra motivated to show Captain, Mike Weir that he made the wrong decision to leave him off next week's Presidents Cup team.

In fairness to Weir, Taylor has lost form since winning at the Phoenix Open earlier in the year, with just one top 20 since, which was a 12th that came two starts later.

What he has done though is found some low rounds of late, and he's done the same here, sitting 15th, 41st, and 6th here after round 1 over his last three visits.

With opening rounds of 65 and 63 among his last five starts, Taylor has found something on Thursdays once again, and he can carry that form into Napa, where he will be keen to show what he's all about, in front of his Canadian and International peers.

Nick Taylor will also start from the 10th tee and kick things off early, which like Theegala makes puts him in a favorable position from the jump, if history is anything to go by.

Justin Lower +10000 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average (Last 8 Weeks) - 66.50
• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 68.95 (9th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-67-64-67-66
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 17th, 47th, 3rd, 14th, 18th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.04% (47th on the PGA Tour)

Justin Lower led after round 1 here in 2022, and either side of that he's 24th and 9th here on day one, so he's 3 for 3 for being inside the top 25 here at the end of play on Thursday. That's no small feat, and it's the fact that it's right in line with his general performance on Thursdays that makes him such an exciting play at triple digits.

Lower has been within two of the first round lead 17 times across the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours, leading on 2 of the occasions. One was here in 2022 and the other was at the 2023 Canadian Open, so he's due a first round lead before 2024 is out.

Three events in a row between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Corales, Lower ended Thursday in 2nd place, and at the Scottish Open he was 3rd after day one as well. That means four times this year, Lower has been inside the top 3 going into Friday, and still not held the lead.

He is well overdue for another first round lead and considering he's been inside the top 20 in four of his past five opening rounds, he's clearly working his way toward that happening.

Why wouldn't that happen this week, on a course has fond memories of? I don't know, and that's why I am taking a shot at +1000!