Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Champ

Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Champ

The PGA Tour returns this week with the Sanderson Farms Championship and we are going to take a deep dive into the First Round Leader Market this week.

This is an event that yields plenty of birdies, so a low score will be required right out of the gates, and we are going to see who is the sharpest of these players, many of whom have only played once or twice in the past two months.

Let's look at the most recent renewals of this event, to see if there are any identifying trends or statistics that will point toward this week's first round leader, in Jackson, Mississippi.

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

First of all, let's look at the past five first round leaders here to see what a player had to shoot to lead on Thursday.

• 2023 - Chesson Hadley (12:50 pm #10) - 64
• 2022 - Davis Riley (12:50 pm #1) William Gordon (1:34 pm #1) - 66
• 2021 - Sahith Theegala (8:44 am #10) - 64
• 2020 - Charley Hoffman (7:49 am #1) Jimmy Walker (7:49 am #10) Kevin Chappell (12:44 pm #10) Sebastian Munoz (12:55 pm #1) -64
• 2019 - Tom Hoge (7:21 am #1) J.T. Poston (12:42 pm #1) - 64

Generally speaking, it has taken a 64 to lead here after round 1, with the 66 shot by Davis Riley and William Gordon an outlier over the past five years.

The time of day doesn't appear to be a major contributor to going low here, with afternoon scorers leading or co-leading in four of the past five renewals and morning starters leading or co-leading in three of the past five renewals.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Here is the weather forecast for Thursday's round at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship this week.

The wind picks up ever so slightly in the late morning and afternoon, but I don't think this should impact our picks. We should instead spread our picks across the two waves, to give ourselves the best chance.

Afternoon leaders have the marginally better record when it comes to first round leaders over the past five years, but there isn't much in it.

Who in this Field Started the Fastest in 2024?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Beau Hossler (8th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00 - Low Opening Round - 60 (Wyndham Championship)
• Justin Lower (8th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express and Scottish Open)
• Andrew Novak (11th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.11) - Low Opening Round - 65 (WM Phoenix Open, Cognizant Classic, 3M Open)
• Rico Hoey (14th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.20) - Low Opening Round - 63 (American Express)
• Zach Johnson (14th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.20) - Low Opening Round - 62 (American Express)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Sanderson Farms Championship?

64 is generally the target score, with that being the leading score on Thursday in 4 of the past 5 Sanderson Farms Championships.

A 63 would likely give a player the outright lead here, so a really strong candidate will have shown an ability to go that deep in recent weeks.

The Favorites in the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

• Keith Mitchell (+4000)
• Mackenzie Hughes (+4000)
• Seamus Power (+4000)
• Six players at +4500

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Leader Picks

Here are my picks for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship First Round Leader Market.

Ben Griffin +4500 (FanDuel)

• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 70.44 (107th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-79-70-65-66
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 8th, 138th, 61st, 9th, and 5th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.02% (47th on the PGA Tour)

Ben Griffin suffered heartbreak here 12 months ago, dropping shots late on when holding the lead, and eventually losing out in a 5-man playoff, eventually won by Luke List.

He has however played incredibly well in his two starts here in Jackson, finishing 24th and 2nd, and firing 5 rounds of 68 or better in the 8 he has played.

Add to that his recent form, which has seen him sit inside the top in 3 of his past five starts by Thursday's end, and Griffin is clearly a viable option in the First Round Leader market this week.

Three times in his past five starts he has opened with a round of 66 or better and his second-round 63 last year shows he can shoot the required score.

Griffin ranks 11th in Par Breakers over the past six months, showing he is more than capable of making both Birdies and Eagles regularly.

Patrick Fishburn +4500 (BetRivers)

• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 70.56 (119th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-65-71-69-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 13th, 4th, 87th, 75th, 9th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.11% (87th)

Patrick Fishburn is making waves on the PGA Tour with three top-6 finishes in his last four starts, and four top-15 finishes in his last five.

Only once in 2024 has Fishburn failed to gain strokes off the tee, and he has the required distance to go low here this week.

We don't know how he will play here, given he is making his first start at the Country Club of Jackson, but he looks to have the right skill set, and he's starting fast of late.

Three times in his past five starts, Fishburn has been inside the top 13 after round 1 and I think he can finally go into round 2 atop a PGA Tour leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Fishburn ranks 15th in Par Breakers (Birdie and Eagle Percentage) and 16th in Birdie Average over the past six months, showing his ability to go low on any given round. If you narrow down these stats to the past three months, he ranks inside the top 10 for both.

Chan Kim +5000 (DraftKings)

• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 69.57 (29th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 69-68-70-69-71
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 60th, 32nd, 61st, 75th, 54th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.37% (8th)

Chan Kim is a birdie maker and I have every faith in him being able to shoot the lowest round on any given day, and I hope that will be on Thursday this week.

Like Fishburn, Kim has not played here at Jackson Country Club, but he's got the perfect attributes to go low here, with his constant ability to gain strokes on both approach and off the tee.

Kim ranks 11th for Birdie Average and 13th for Par Breakers over the past six months, and he rose to 10th in the former when you narrow it down to the last three months. He is more than capable of ending the day in first place this Thursday, as he has done 8 times in Japan, Korea, and Canada. Now it is time to do so in America, on the biggest tour of them all, having sat inside the top 5 after day one three times this year.

Cameron Champ +6600 (BetMGM)

• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 70.44 (107th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 66-67-69-67-71
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 13th, 18th, 46th, 27th, 54th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.04% (121st on the PGA Tour)

Statistically, Cameron Champ is never going to stand out, unless we are talking about driving distance because he simply doesn't offer the consistency of a top player. With that said, he is still a three-time winner on Tour, the first of which came here when he also held the first-round lead.

Champ was able to go wire-to-wire when winning here, opening with a round 65, and following with weekend rounds of 64 and 68, to cap off an extraordinary week for the then-youngster.

Since his win here, Champ has put in two more decent showings at the Country Club of Jackson, finishing 28th on his title defense, and 9th again last year, in his only start here since.

A third-round 65 last year shows what he can do at this course when he gets going, and there have been recent reminders he is a low-scorer on his day as well.

A final-round 63 at the 3M Open offers encouragement as does a second-round 66 at the Barracuda, and now is the time for Champ to kick things off quickly again, at a course he clearly loves.

It should be no surprise that Champ likes this course, with no real penalty for missing the fairway, and an obvious advantage to those who can hit it a long way.

His first-round lead here in 2018 is his only one on Tour to date, but it was also his third of the year that season, after landing two on the Korn Ferry as well. If he can circle back the years and channel 2018 Cam Champ, which recent form suggests he can, we could get another hot start from him.

Charley Hoffman +6600 (BetRivers)

• Round Scoring Average (Last Season) - 69.72 (42nd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 70-71-73-64-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 99th, 88th, 121st, 4th, 9th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.63% (27th on the PGA Tour)

His most consistent days are behind him, but Charley Hoffman has found form again in 2024, almost winning the WM Phoenix Open earlier in the year.

Hoffman ended the weekend with a pair of 64s in Phoenix and was denied in a playoff by Nick Taylor there, but he's shown some fight since, with three more top-12 finishes.

In his past two starts he has also started fast, ending the opening round in 4th and 9th place, and considering he ranks 27th on Tour for birdie or better percentage in 2024, there is plenty to be excited about.

Hoffman has played here five times since the Country Club of Jackson took over hosting duties, with a best finish of 6th.

In that time, Hoffman has shot two 64s, one of which was enough to lead after round one in 2020.

Hoffman finished 8th at the Barracuda and 12th at the Wyndham Championship to end the past season and followed that up with a 26th at the Procore Championship to kick off this new one, so things are looking good for the veteran.