Sanderson Farms Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Norlander, Kizzire in Jackson

Sanderson Farms Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Norlander, Kizzire in Jackson

The PGA Tour returns after a couple of weeks off, including a break for the 2024 Presidents Cup.

It will come as no surprise to you that the Sanderson Farms Championship field is not littered with talent, but I do still believe there is an opportunity to make some exciting bets and below will be four players at +4000 and bigger that I think can win this thing.

The tournament moved to its current course, Country Club of Jackson in 2014, and since then we have seen a wide range of winners. Big-name players like Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns have won here, but Cody Gribble and Ryan Armour have also won. Given the spot in the schedule and the easiness of the course, it is perhaps no surprise we get such random results.

It is hard then to feel too confident about any player in a week like this, but below we will see if we can identify some trends and stats that might point you to the winner.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $200 in guaranteed bonus bets,. This means you will essentially bag a guaranteed +4000 winner at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Here are the key stats I am looking at when picking out potential winners this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

SG Off the Tee - Strong off-the-tee play has been a barometer for success at this event, with the last five winners ranking 19th, 59th, 1st, 1st, and 4th. Mackenzie Hughes was an outlier when ranking 59th, instead being razor-sharp with his approach and around-the-green game that week. These positive results off-the-tee generally have to do with distance, rather than accuracy, with Driving Distance providing a strong correlation to success.

Bermuda Putting - Those who enjoy Bermuda Putting, particularly Champion Bermuda, should like putting here in Jackson, Mississippi.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Sanderson Farms Championship

Below are the odds of each of the last 10 winners of this event.

2023 - Luke List +5000

2022 - Mackenzie Hughes +130000

2021 - Sam Burns +1600

2020 - Sergio Garcia +7000

2019 - Sebastian Munoz +6600

2018 - Cameron Champ +6600

2017 - Ryan Armour +12500

2016 - Cody Gribble +12500

2015 - Peter Malnati +25000

2014 - Nick Taylor +40000

This has been a great event for sleepers and value picks, with Sam Burns the only short-priced player to win at this course. The best players in this field have a hard time separating themselves on a simple course like this, and that is reflected in this eclectic mix of winners.

Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

Let's see what we have learned from past events here since 2014. Are there any trends that will point to a winner here at the Sanderson Farms, or is it truly random?

Winning Experience Important - 10 of the last 12 winners had won an event at the professional level already. Only Cody Gribble and Nick Taylor won here, having not won on the Korn Ferry Tour or in Canada before.

Prior PGA Tour Win Not Essential - Recently, we have seen more established PGA Tour winners here, but the first 6 players to win at Country Club of Jackson had not yet won on the PGA Tour. Since then, Sergio Garcia (10), Sam Burns (1), Mackenzie Hughes (1), and Luke List (1) have all won here, having already won on the PGA Tour before. Will this trend continue or will we go back to a maiden winner at this event?

Procore a Helpful Warmup - 6 of the last 12 winners of this event had played in the Procore Championship, or as it was previously known, the Fortinet Championship, before winning here. A recent start looks favorable.

Correlating Course: Copperhead Course, Innisbrook - Valspar Championship

We have a decade of form to look at, but one course I like the look of is the Valspar Championship

• Sam Burns has won here and won twice at the Valspar Championship
• Peter Malnati has won both here and at the Valspar Championship
• Mackenzie Hughes has won here and had a chance to win the Valspar Championship this year, ultimately finishing T3
• Sergio Garcia has won here and finished 4th and 7th at the Valspar Championship
• Ryan Armour has won here and finished T6 at the Valspar Championship
• Cody Gribble has won here and finished T7 at the Valspar Championship
• Nick Taylor has won here and finished T10 at the Valspar Championship with two more top 25s
• Luke List has won here and finished T16 at the Valspar Championship
• Cameron Champ has won here and finished T26 at the Valspar Championship

This leaves Sebastian Munoz as the only winner at this course not to have had even a semi-decent week at the Valspar. Champ finished T26 there, and every other winner has finished inside the top 20 there. Burns and Malnati won at both, and Hughes recently had a chance to win there this year, so it looks like a course that provides some crossover.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship.

Taylor Moore +6000 (FanDuel)

Let's put our correlation to the test, as Taylor Moore has a win and a 12th-place finish at the Valspar Championship, and now I want to see if he can match that with success here at the Sanderson Farms.

In fairness, he's already made a decent crack at it, going 3/3 for made cuts here, finishing 53rd, 17th, and 24th, but now I want him to contend as well.

Moore ended this past season in reasonable form, finishing T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T12 at the 3M Open. Now he can pick up where he left off, with another strong start at this course, as he looks to follow up his maiden Tour win.

This is a gut play more than anything else, as I think he's a talented player who has shown he's capable of contending and winning, particularly at a course that correlates nicely with this one, in terms of results.

Henrik Norlander +6600 (BetMGM)

Henrik Norlander has finished inside the top 4 three times at this course, with 4th, 4th, 24th, and 2nd his four most recent starts here.

The Swede has split his time across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour this season and has found a good run of form, with eight top-25 finishes, nine if you include the Zurich Classic. His three best performances have come at the Barracuda Championship (11th), the 3M Open (12th), and the Omega European Masters (8th), all of which have come in his past six starts.

His putting has held him back this season, but the good news is, he likes the greens here at the Country Club of Jackson. He has gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts at this course, suggesting he likes rolling the rock on this Champion Bermuda.

Norlander is currently one of the best ball-strikes in this field, ranking 4th in Approach and 2nd in Tee to Green among players in this field, over the past 15 weeks.

A course specialist who is striking almost as well as anyone in this field right now, Norlander has to be considered.

Patton Kizzire +8000 (Bet365)

I am usually wrong in this situation, but I believe Patton Kizzire is priced too high to repeat his recent success at the Procore Championship.

I have been of the belief that some players are given longer odds than their form suggests, simply because we believe they are players that cannot win back-to-back. While I do understand the sentiment that a player like Kizzire would find it hard to record back-to-back wins, there is evidence he follows up a win quickly.

In 2015, Kizzire won for the first time on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning the Utah Championship on August 2nd. On August 23rd, he picked up his second win, at the New Sentinel Open. He played two events in between, one a missed cut and another a T6 finish.

Roll on a further two years, and Kizzire wins for the first time on the PGA Tour at the OHL Classic on November 12th, 2017. Three starts later, on January 14th, 2018, Kizzire won the Sony Open. He had finished 45th and 15th in his two starts in between.

Simply put, Kizzire isn't averse to winning in bunches, and while he hasn't played since, he has enjoyed a two-week break since his win at the ProCore Championship. Prior to his win there, Kizzire had finished 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 8th at the Barracuda Championship in the not-too-distant past, so he was in decent form.

Kizzire finished 4th here on debut and backed that up with a 10th two years later, the latter coming two starts before his breakthrough win at the OHL Classic. He was the 54-hole leader here on debut, and while he has struggled in more recent years, he has ended the day in 15th and 7th after round 1, to suggest he can still navigate his ball around this course.

Back this recent winner to strike again.

Garrick Higgo +12500 (Caesars)

Garrick Higgo won one on the DP World Tour in 2020 and then in 2021, won two more times on that Tour and a further time on the PGA Tour, winning the Palmetto Championship. Within 10 months he was a four-time winner across the two tours and by 21 he had the world at his feet.

Now 25, Higgo is struggling for consistency, but one place he has found solace is Jackson. Mississippi. In two starts in this event, Higgo has finished 3rd and 16th, and after finishing 26th in his last start at the Procore Championship, where he gained strokes on Approach and Putting, I think he's ready for another big week here.

Higgo has plenty of distance off the tee at his disposal, gaining strokes on the field in that department in each of his last 7 events, and now it is time to put that skillset to good use, here at a course he enjoys.