Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Kim in Utah

Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Griffin, Kim in Utah

We are in for a thrilling week this week on the PGA Tour, as the Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, plays host to an all-new event, the Black Desert Championship.

It is never easy to predict how a new event will play out, and it's already hard enough week to week to pick out a First Round Leader, but we are up to the challenge here at oddschecker, and we are going to break down some worthy candidates in this market.

Last week we saw David Skinns shoot a 60, which meant Ben Griffin's 64 wasn't enough to secure another First Round Leader for us, despite that score being good enough in each of the past five years of that event. Still, we were on the right track with Griffin, who had to settle for 3rd place, and now we will try and go a little better and nail the outright leader on Thursday.

The Tom Weiskopf-designed Black Desert Resort looks like a very easy course and one that these PGA Tour pros should rip apart in calm conditions. As is often the case with these resort-style courses, the fairways are wide here, which means players should feel comfortable bombing it off the tee, and targeting each of the par 5s and reachable par 4s.

2024 Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

We do not have our usual information to go by, as there is no recent history at this event, given this is the first renewal of the Black Desert Championship.

Here we would normally break down the last five years of this event and look at the leading score on Thursday, what time the player(s) went out, and from which tee box. With no prior renewals to go by, and very little known about the course, we are going in semi-blind this week.

Our strategy then, will be to target the lowest-scoring players, who are enjoying quick starts in 2024, and those who are able to take advantage of the reachable Par 4s and 5s here. A low score will almost certainly be required.

We have targeted past form at the WM Phoenix Open and the Shriners Open, based on them being events held in the desert, and the fact Tom Weiskopf designed both courses. We have also considered courses like the Mexico Open where players have a license to bomb it off the tee, and the Byron Nelson, where low scoring is required, once again on a Weiskopf design.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 Black Desert Championship

Here is the weather forecast for Thursday's round at the 2024 Black Desert Championship this week.

The wind picks up slightly toward the latter stages of Thursday's round, which means the afternoon starters may be held back a little at the tail-end of the day. This would suggest a slight advantage for the morning starters, but for now, I still think it is best to split across the two waves, and just back the players you believe can hit the required number.

Who in this Field Has Started the Fastest in 2024?

Here are the fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Beau Hossler (5th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 68.82 - Low Opening Round - 60 (Wyndham Championship)
• Justin Lower (9th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.00) - Low Opening Round - 64 (American Express and Scottish Open)
• Hayden Springer (11th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.11) - Low Opening Round - 59 (John Deere Classic)
• Rico Hoey (12th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.14) - Low Opening Round - 63 (American Express)
• Henrik Norlander (12th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.14) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Mexico Open)
• Chandler Phillips (12th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.14) - Low Opening Round - 64 (John Deere Classic)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the Black Desert Championship?

This is a finger in the wind stuff, given we haven't seen the course yet, but we should expect a low score, from everything that is being said about this course.

With wide-open fairways, three reachable par 5s, and a couple of driveable Par 4s as well, there is a chance for some really deep scores here.

We would target a 63 for the opening-day lead here, but that is complete guesswork.

The Favorites in the 2024 Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Black Desert Championship, in Utah.

• Keith Mitchell (+3500)
• Kurt Kitayama (+4500)
• Seamus Power (+4500)
• Eight players at +5000

2024 Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my picks for the 2024 Black Desert Championship First Round Leader Market.

Ben Griffin +5000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.21 (84th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 79-70-65-66-64
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 138th, 61st, 9th, 5th, and 3rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.23% (44th on the PGA Tour)

I am sticking with Ben Griffin, who opened with a 64 last week, the score we had targeted for him to shoot, given that was good enough to lead each of the past five Sanderson Farms Championships.

Given that Griffin has finished 9th, 5th, and 3rd at Thursday's end in his past three starts, the next natural progression is to post a first-round lead.

Over the past 3 months, Griffin averages a score of 66.60 in round 1, and while the sample size may be a little small, it does show what he has been able to do in his five most recent starts.

Griffin finished 13th at the Byron Nelson earlier this year, another low-scoring event, hosted on a Tom Weiskopf design, and his second round 64 there was one of the best of the day, so he's got form in one of the right places.

28th at the WM Phoenix Open this year shows he can hang in desert conditions, and as a player who is killing it in round 1 of late, Griffin should continue to be considered in this market.

Patrick Rodgers +6000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 70.17 (78th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 65-68-69-72-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 3rd, 42nd, 28th, 81st, 37th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 22.15% (88th)

Patrick Rodgers has a winning problem, and while he has also never held a first-round lead, he constantly puts himself in contention on day one.

16 times in his career, Rodgers has ended Thursday's round inside the top 5, two of those coming in 2024 at The Heritage and the 3M Open. Now he comes to a course that should suit his game, given his track record at potentially correlative courses.

The 2nd and 3rd place finishes at the Barracuda are eye-catching, and so are his three top 10 finishes at the Mexico Open. Sprinkle in three finishes of 17th or better at the Phoenix Open and a 13th at the Shriners and you have a player suited to this test.

Rodgers had made 8 cuts in a row heading into the Sanderson Farms Championship so he had been playing well until that point, and a second-round 63 at the Wyndham, weekend rounds of 64 and 65 at the Barracuda, and an opening 65 at the 3M Open all suggest Rodgers is ready to go low on Thursday again.

Hayden Springer +8000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.11 (11th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 74-66-70-73-66
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 136th, 6th, 101st, 100th, 14th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.20% (17th)

Hayden Springer is a volatile player, but that works in this betting format, especially when you look at the fact he's been 6th and 14th after round 1 in recent starts, and remember that he joined an exclusive list of players in the '59 club', when leading the John Deere Classic after round 1.

Three rounds of 66 helped Springer to a 6th place finish at the Sanderson Farms last week, and he does a lot of things I like for this test well.

In the past three months, Springer ranks 18th for Round 1 Scoring Average and 20th for Par 5 Performance both of which are worth considering, especially given how scoreable the Par 5s are here.

It's highly unlikely we get another 59 out of Springer, but a round of 63 or 64 isn't out of the question for a player who is capable of hitting the ball a long way off the tee, onto these wide-open fairways.

Martin Laird +15000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.58 (30th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-71-69-66-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 32nd, 87th, 75th, 2nd, 25th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 21.56% (109th on the PGA Tour)

Martin Laird has struggled for large parts of this season, but he seems to be finding form of late, opening with rounds of 66 and 67 over the past two weeks, and shooting a second-round 65 to vault into the top 6 at the halfway mark last week.

The Colorado resident is no stranger to playing at altitude and is also a desert golf expert, having won the Shriners Open twice in Vegas, and also finishing 2nd there as well. Add four more top-10 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open, two of which are top 5s, and you have a player who should enjoy playing in Utah this week.

Laird needs a big week, and with his back against the wall, the Scot can lean on his impressive ball-striking last week and produce a low round here in Utah, at a course that should provide some creature comforts.

Seonghyeon Kim +17000 (bet365)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.65 (39th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 75-69-75-72-73
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 141st, 75th, 115th, 81st, 114th
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 23.39% (36th on the PGA Tour)

His recent starts won't inspire much confidence, with one made cut in his last five starts, but I think this is a far more suitable test for SH Kim.

Over the past three months, Kim leads the Par 5 Performance category, as he's 49-under-par on Par 5s over his past 22 rounds, and despite playing poorly, he ranks 33rd in Par Breakers and 34th in Birdie Average, averaging 4.68 birdies per round.

With a license to bomb it off the tee, which he can do, Kim will look to go low on Thursday, as he has done at the Shriners (4th in 2022 with an opening 65) and the Byron Nelson (4th in 2024 with two 64s).

17th at the Barracuda Championship, 24th at the Mexico Open, and 28th at the WM Phoenix Open are all promising signs as well, and I think this Par 5 machine can go low on Thursday.

With three par 5s to take advantage of and a couple of reachable Par 4s, Kim has the chance to go low, even if it is just for one round.