Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Prediction: Ingram Has to Carry the Load Without Barnes
Toronto Raptors (33-23), locked into fifth place in the East and chasing fourth-seeded New York by just 1.5 games, host the Milwaukee Bucks (24-30) at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, February 22, tipping off at 3:30 PM ET. With Scottie Barnes sidelined for personal reasons and Giannis Antetokounmpo still nursing a right calf strain, this final meeting of the season series is a battle of short-handed rosters with wildly different stakes, as Toronto pushes to clinch home-court advantage while Brandon Ingram (22.0 PPG) shoulders the offensive load against a surging Milwaukee squad that has quietly rattled off six wins in seven games and sits less than a game out of the play-in picture at 11th in the East.
OC Staff - February 22, 2026, 1:40 PM EST
3 Minute ReadToronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Prediction: Ingram Has to Carry the Load Without Barnes
Raptors vs Bucks Recent Performance
Toronto comes into Fiserv Forum at 33-23, sitting fifth in the East and hungry to claw back into striking distance of the fourth seed. The Raptors bounced back from the All-Star break with a tidy 110-101 road win over the Chicago Bulls on February 19, with all five starters scoring in double figures. They're 8-4 over their last 12 and 17-10 on the road, which is legitimately one of the better road marks in the conference. The issue tonight: Scottie Barnes is out for personal reasons, and he's the engine that makes Toronto's two-way identity run.
Milwaukee is quietly cooking. The Bucks sit at 24-30 and 11th in the East, but they've won six of their last seven and three straight, doing all of it without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ryan Rollins (17.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) has stepped up as the primary creator, and the team has found a workable rhythm as a collective. They're a game behind Charlotte for the final play-in spot and are not messing around right now.
Raptors vs Bucks Head to Head
Toronto leads the season series 2-1, having won the last two meetings after Milwaukee took the opener in October. The Raptors also hold a 2-1 ATS edge in those matchups. The Bucks took last year's series clean, sweeping all three games, so there's motivation on both sides of this final meeting. Toronto wants to clinch the season series. Milwaukee wants to prove it can compete without its franchise player.
Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- How to Watch: The Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin, NBA League Pass
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Raptors vs Bucks Odds
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Raptors vs Bucks Team News
Toronto is without Scottie Barnes tonight, listed out for personal reasons. That's a 19.2-point, 8.4-rebound, 5.6-assist absence, and Barnes is the kind of player who shows up in the box score and everywhere you can't measure it. The Raptors still have Brandon Ingram (22.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.7 APG on 47.2% shooting) and RJ Barrett (18.4 PPG, 47.7% from the field) to carry the offensive load, and Immanuel Quickley (17.0 PPG, 6.0 APG) is one of the better secondary creators in the East. But Barnes losing his minutes takes the ceiling off this road performance.
Milwaukee is working through its own unavailable list. Giannis is still out with a right calf strain, sitting at 28 PPG and 10 RPG on the season before going down. Taurean Prince is out following neck surgery. Myles Turner is listed as questionable with a right calf strain of his own. Without Giannis, Rollins and Bobby Portis (13.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) are splitting the creation duties, and the Bucks have been more than functional, winning at a clip that has the play-in race genuinely interesting.
Prediction: Raptors 112, Bucks 110
Toronto is the better team on paper and wins this one, but not comfortably. The Raptors' road record is real, their defensive efficiency (seventh in the league in points allowed per game) travels, and Ingram is capable of a 28-point night against a Bucks perimeter that gives up 14.6 made threes per game. That said, Milwaukee is playing with real purpose right now. Six of their last seven is not a fluke. The Bucks post a 59.3% true shooting percentage compared to Toronto's 57.2%, a gap that gets meaningful when Barnes isn't there to create easy buckets through transition and offensive rebounding. Rollins and Portis will keep this close, and the Bucks cover the number in a one-possession game.
Best Bet: Bucks +3.5 (-115) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The market is pricing this like a comfortable Toronto road win, and the efficiency math says otherwise. Milwaukee's effective field goal percentage (56.8%) is 3.3 points better than Toronto's (53.5%), and the Bucks own a 26.0% offensive rebounding rate compared to Toronto's 20.6%. Those aren't noise. Add in Barnes being unavailable, a Bucks team that has covered in four of its last five games, and a home crowd that's locked in for a playoff push, and 3.5 points is far too many to lay against a team playing this well. Giannis being out has been baked into the number for weeks, the market is still treating Milwaukee like the 24-30 team from January. Take the points.
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