What Odds is Jake Paul to Beat Anthony Joshua?

Jake Paul faces the toughest challenge of his boxing career this Friday as he steps into the ring with former two-time heavyweight world champion Anthony Joshua at Miami’s Kaseya Center. The Netflix-backed event has attracted global attention, but it has also sparked widespread concern within the boxing community due to the perceived gulf in experience, size and power between the two fighters.

Paul has built a reputation for defying expectations since turning professional in 2020, but this matchup represents a dramatic leap in difficulty. As a result, bookmakers have installed him as a significant underdog. Can Jake Paul pull off one of the biggest upsets in modern boxing by beating Anthony Joshua?

What Odds is Jake Paul to Beat Anthony Joshua?

Betting markets have positioned Jake Paul as a heavy outsider across all major sportsbooks. Odds for Paul to win outright remain long, reflecting widespread belief that defeating a former unified heavyweight champion is a step too far at this stage of his career.

Odds last updated at 4PM, Wednesday 17th December.

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Method-of-victory markets tell a similar story. Paul’s chances of winning by knockout are considered slim, while a points victory is viewed as even less likely given Joshua’s experience and physical advantages. Most bookmakers expect the fight to end inside the distance, but overwhelmingly in Joshua’s favour.

Jake Paul is also a heavy underdog to score a knockdown against Anthony Joshua, priced at 5/1, while Joshua is a strong 2/9 favourite to land at least one knockdown on the YouTuber.

What is Jake Paul’s Professional Boxing Record?

Since making his professional debut in 2020, Jake Paul has compiled a respectable record, largely against crossover opponents. He is currently on a six-fight winning streak, which includes victories over former UFC fighters Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley (twice), Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz and Mike Perry, as well as a high-profile points win against 58-year-old Mike Tyson.

Paul’s only professional defeat came against Tommy Fury in 2023, the only established boxer he has faced. That loss highlighted limitations in Paul’s footwork, defensive awareness and ability to deal with consistent pressure from a trained professional.

Expert Predictions: Can Jake Paul Shock Anthony Joshua?

Expert opinion has been almost unanimously sceptical about Paul’s chances. Many former fighters and analysts believe the bout is a mismatch, with some expressing serious concerns about Paul’s safety.

Joshua’s promoter Eddie Hearn has suggested that if Paul attempts to fight aggressively, the contest could end quickly. Former heavyweight champion David Haye has gone further, warning that the fight could be Paul’s “last day on earth.”

Amir Khan has also questioned Paul’s ability to absorb Joshua’s power, stating that if Joshua lands clean, the damage could be severe. Michael Bisping dismissed the idea of a fairytale upset, pointing to Joshua’s superior experience, size, reach and Olympic pedigree.

Even Oleksandr Usyk, who twice defeated Joshua, weighed in with a blunt assessment, stating that if Joshua wanted to, he could end the fight decisively. British heavyweight Derek Chisora echoed that sentiment, suggesting Joshua would not take a cautious approach and would look to finish the fight.

Who is the Betting Favourite in Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua?

Odds suggest Anthony Joshua is the favourite to win against Jake Paul with an implied win probability of 89%. Jake Paul is a massive underdog in this fight and has an implied win probability of only around 10%.

Odds last updated at 12PM, Wednesday 17th December.