We debunk the myth that there are historically more upsets for already qualified teams in the Champions League.
It's generally perceived that teams that have already qualified in the Champions League will be less motivated to win their final matches and tend to rest players, leading to a few upsets. Is that actually the case in practice though?
It seems that the general conception isn't true when looking at past results. Yes the bigger clubs who have nothing to play for will rest players but in the last six years qualified clubs only lose 28% of matches in the last round of matches. Even then, it’s rarely a shock who these qualified clubs lose to; the only huge upsets since 2010 in the last gameweek are:
- AC Milan losing at home to Zenit in 2012
- Manchester United losing at home to CFR Cluj in 2012
- Inter Milan losing at home to CSKA Moscow in 2011
Twelve teams have already qualified for the last sixteen before the last round of Champions League fixtures this year. Arsenal can still secure top place in Group A when they take on FC Basel, however since 2010 they’ve lost two fixtures in the last round when they’ve already qualified. PSG have also qualified with one game to spare, a position they found themselves in last year and on that occasion they cruised to a 2-0 win.
Both Barcelona and Man City have qualified from Group C. The Spanish giants have not lost in the last game since 2010 when they’ve already qualified. City, on the other hand, have been in this position on four occasions, losing once to Bayern Munich.
Bayern and Atletico have already qualified from Group D. They face each other tonight and our users are going with a win for Bayern, with 51% of bets being placed on the German team and only 30% on Atletico.
Monaco and Leverkusen have qualified from Tottenham’s group. They face each other on Wednesday night, with the Germans having drawn all three games since 2010 when they’ve already qualified before the last round of fixtures.
Dortmund and Madrid have qualified from Group F, and again they face each other in the last round. Real Madrid have not lost in the six games they’ve played since 2010 when they’ve already qualified before the final group game.
Given the percentage of teams that win when they’ve already qualified the 10/1 price for Leicester is surprising. Porto will finish second if they beat the English club on Wednesday. Finally, Juventus take on Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday evening. Juve have one of the worst records out of qualified teams playing in the last round, losing two and drawing one since 2010.
