Are we likely to see goals flying in this year based on trends during the Christmas period over last six seasons?
There are three sets of fixtures in the Premier League to look forward over the Christmas and New Year period and they could go a long way to deciding the top and bottom of the table at the end of the season.
Just how much entertainment do these matches over the festive period produce though? We've taken a look at the amount of goals for each year over the last six seasons to find out.
| 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | Total | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxing Day Matches | 24 | 19 | 20 | 29 | 26 | 21 | 139 | 23.2 |
| Post-Christmas Matches | 24 | 26 | 41 | 30 | 22 | 19 | 162 | 27 |
| New Year Matches | 25 | 29 | 30 | 24 | 33 | 22 | 163 | 27.2 |
| Total | 73 | 74 | 91 | 83 | 81 | 62 | ||
| Average | 24.3 | 24.7 | 30.3 | 27.7 | 27 | 20.7 |
2010/11’s festive period produced a respectable amount of goals, even though there were two less matches on Boxing Day. 73 goals were scored, with 24.3 per set of fixtures and 2.6 goals per game. There were only a few matches that went over 2.5, with the best of them being a 3-3 draw between Chelsea and Aston Villa.
2011/12 saw a similar amount of goals, with one more than 2010 and 74 in total. That meant an average of 24.7 per set of fixtures and a goals per game ratio of 2.5. A couple of matches stood out that year, with Man United drubbing Wigan 5-0 and then losing 2-3 to Blackburn at home between Christmas and New Year.
2012/13 was the festive period with the most goals, with 91, two more than the year before. That meant an average of 30.3 goals per set of fixtures and 3.1 goals per game. Highlights from that year were Man United beating Newcastle 4-3, Man City beating Norwich 3-4 and Arsenal defeating Newcastle 7-3.
The 2013/14 festive period produced a high amount of goals, even though there was one less match with Arsenal v West Ham called off on Boxing Day. There was a total of 83 goals, with 27.7 per set of fixtures and 2.9 goals per game. A selection of the better matches were Newcastle beating Stoke 5-1, Hull beating Fulham 6-0 and the 3-3 draw between West Ham and West Brom.
The 2014/15 festive period saw a slight drop in the amount of goals scored, with 81 in total and 27 per set of fixtures. That meant a goals per game ratio of 2.7. Highlights from that year included Newcastle beating Everton 3-2, Liverpool beating Swansea 4-1 and Spurs beating Chelsea 5-3.
2015/16 produced the least amount of goals over the six season, with only 62 goals from the thirty matches played, with an average of 20.7 per set of fixtures. That equates to an average of 2.07 goals per game. Highlights included Southampton beating Arsenal 4-0, Stoke beating Everton 3-4 and Man City beating Sunderland 4-1.
Over the 2010/11 to 2015/16 period, Boxing Day was the set of fixtures that, on average, produced the lowest number of goals. There were three less matches when compared to the other two sets of fixtures though, with an average goals per game of 2.4. That's still less than the 2.7 and 2.72 goals per game ratio for Post-Christmas matches and New Year matches respectively.
Going by how this season has gone so far, you would expect there to be plenty of goals over the upcoming festive period. With Man United, Arsenal and Chelsea having some kind fixtures, plus the prospect of some important matches at the bottom of the Premier League, we could see some significant changes to the table by 3rd January 2017.
