Using historic league table positions between Christmas and May over the last 10 seasons, we predict the final standings for this season.
The Christmas period is always seen as a significant time for Premier League clubs at both ends of the table with their league position at this time used as a barometer for their finishing position. Here at Oddschecker, we’ve taken a look back at the last 10 seasons to find out on average, what your position at Christmas means to your final standing.
Average positions at Christmas against finishing position over the last 10 seasons in the Premier League
| Position At Christmas | Average Position At The End Of The Season (Raw Average) |
|---|---|
| 1st | 1st (1.4) |
| 2nd | 2nd (2.3) |
| 3rd | 3rd (3.4) |
| 4th | 5th (5) |
| 5th | 5th (5) |
| 6th | 9th (9.1) |
| 7th | 7th (7.4) |
| 8th | 9th (8.8) |
| 9th | 12th (11.6) |
| 10th | 11th (10.5) |
| 11th | 10th (10) |
| 12th | 14th (13.8) |
| 13th | 13th (12.5) |
| 14th | 15th (15.3) |
| 15th | 13th (12.9) |
| 16th | 17th (16.5) |
| 17th | 15th (14.8) |
| 18th | 14th (13.7) |
| 19th | 17th (17.4) |
| 20th | 19th (18.6) |
On just three occasions have the team top at Christmas has not gone onto win the title: Liverpool (2008/09 and 2013/14) and Arsenal (2007/08). The biggest recovery to win the title came from Manchester United in 2008/09 where they found themselves in 4th place, 7 points adrift of top spot albeit with two games in hand. If Manchester City want to win the title this season, they will have to match this feat, with the added difficulty of not having the luxury of games in hand over current leaders Chelsea.
The good news for Liverpool fans is that no team has been 2nd at Christmas and finished outside of the top four. Plus, only once has a team finished lower than third. Better news for United fans as they can take heart from Arsenal who pulled off the biggest recovery to make the top four when they came back from 6th to finish third in 2014/15, the same gap that currently faces Mourinho's side.
The biggest fall from grace was back in 2010/11 when Ian Holloway’s free flowing Blackpool went from 9th position on Christmas day (currently occupied by Everton) to 19th place and relegation come the end of the campaign. Fans of Watford and Middlesbrough should also be looking nervously over their shoulders, as the 12th and 14th placed sides have been relegated twice and three times respectively, the most of any position outside of the bottom four at Christmas.
The biggest improvement in position over the last 10 seasons was by Fulham who made up an incredible 10 places, finishing 8th in the 2010/11 season having been 18th when Santa Claus was doing his thing. Fans of great escape specialists Sunderland will be hoping Moyes and the boys can produce something similar this season.
If the league stays true to the averages we have dug out, you can expect the Premier League table to look like this come May.
Predicted Premier League Table 2016/17
| Position | Christmas 2016 | Predicted May 2017 |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Chelsea | Chelsea |
| 2nd | Liverpool | Liverpool |
| 3rd | Manchester City | Manchester City |
| 4th | Arsenal | Arsenal (Joint) |
| 5th | Spurs | Spurs (Joint) |
| 6th | Manchester United | Southampton |
| 7th | Southampton | West Brom |
| 8th | West Brom | Manchester United |
| 9th | Everton | Stoke |
| 10th | Bournemouth | Bournemouth |
| 11th | Stoke | Everton |
| 12th | Watford | West Ham |
| 13th | West Ham | Leicester |
| 14th | Middlesbrough | Sunderland |
| 15th | Leicester | Watford |
| 16th | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
| 17th | Crystal Palace | Middlesbrough |
| 18th | Sunderland | Burnley |
| 19th | Swansea | Swansea |
| 20th | Hull | Hull |
It's fair to say this doesn't make great reading for United fans as the numbers suggest they could be set to finish 8th behind West Brom and Southampton. A surprise to say the least especially considering they are 1/25 to finish in the top 6.
Meanwhile the battle for a top 4 finish looks likely to go right to the wire between North London rivals Arsenal and Spurs with teams in 4th and 5th at Christmas averaging a 5th placed finish. Down at the bottom, Sunderland are set recover to safety (again). Bloody Maths!
